TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2349. heretolearninPR
8:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Have any T#s been put out yet for 97L? Thank you.
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2348. beell
8:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 8:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

What the? What is that well defined surface circulation between 96 and 97L @ 14N 46W?

StormW posted this swirl last night during a chat w/Drak.

It's the 1012mb low on the sfc charts between 97 and 96.
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2347. StormJunkie
8:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Yep tigger, for a few more minutes, then going to take a break to get dinner and all
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2346. extreme236
8:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: SLU at 8:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: extreme236 at 8:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

But later, it became organized enough for a TD

Yeah for only 15 minutes.


whatever, it didnt look much different than jerry did several hours ago...the point is that it did become better organized, although not organized enough to have deserved a name and it didnt get one
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2345. InTheCone
8:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sfloridacat5 -

Don't put to much weight into the early model runs. They are apt to change when the system develops and they can get a better handle on it.
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2344. mississippiwx23
8:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Once, 96L consolidates all the mass into a smaller area, it will really start to get going. Depression within 24 hrs? I say definately.

But 97l is obviously the greater threat for the islands at this point.

The gulf system still does not look any better developed today.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
2343. brtxmann
8:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
sandcrab;aspectre;retaining1

Im in agreement with aspectre& retaining1 being on the end of many conference calls myself between state and local government officials. Information between NHC and local NWS are given to all parties. Local emergency managers and County Judges come in all shapes and sizes with a wide variety of experience. They are usually guided by local NWS experts on the potential impact of the storm to their specific area. Usually so simple that anyone can understand. These forecast are continually updated to all govenrment offcials at all levels. What they do with that information is another question...

The Governor is ultimately responsible for the response and they will guide local officials to do the right thing. Im sure some states are more prepared than others and certainly have better leadership than others.

Katrina was almost criminal..

Stay Prepared..
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2342. SLU
8:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 8:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

But later, it became organized enough for a TD


Yeah for only 15 minutes.
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2341. tiggeriffic
8:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
sj, you still out there?
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2340. Sfloridacat5
8:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Last major hurricane to hit U.S. was Wilma two years ago (cat 3).
Is that correct?
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2339. Weather456
4:39 PM AST on September 23, 2007


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2338. extreme236
8:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Francisco's winds are up to 50mph, pressure is down to 989mb
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2337. Sfloridacat5
8:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Major storms keep going South of the boarder to be less specific.
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2336. extreme236
8:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L looking a bit more consolidated again
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2335. AndyN
8:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Thanks. I noticed after I asked.....It is a huge invest.
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2334. extreme236
8:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: SLU at 8:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

The DVORAK classifications for TD #10 never reached T2.0/2.0 which is the rating a system gets when it reaches TD status. The system also looked like crap with barely a thunderstorm within its circulation. Yet still the number 10 was still wasted by upgrading it to a tropical depression which didn't even last for more than 12 hours. The reason being "...BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...".

So here we have INVEST 97L 250 miles from land and already looking better than TD 10 ever looked. I hope the same precedent is set and that the system gets upgraded early enough because it has POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.


But later, it became organized enough for a TD
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2333. Patrap
3:34 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
NOLA Long range GOM Radar 20 frame loop


Link
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2332. OUFan919
8:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow that is a well defined Low Pressure there CaneWhisperer. I haven't noticed that until you posted that. Very nice looking
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2331. mississippiwx23
8:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Andy,

It already is an invest, just not a depression yet.

And Felix did not go into Mexico, it went into Honduras and Nicaragua. It is amazing how many people on here keep saying Felix went into Mexico. I guess you can say it did once it dissipated, but it did not make landfall there.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
2330. TheCaneWhisperer
8:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Is that the wave that's getting eaten for dinner by 96 JP? Man 96 is huge seems like it's getting bigger too.
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2329. Weather456
4:33 PM AST on September 23, 2007
From this morning

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2328. PascMississippi
8:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Great link Patrap..Thanks
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2327. Sfloridacat5
8:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
So should be near Jamaica in 5 days. Then where does it go? Does it curve north towards Florida or Eastern Gulf, or keep going straight into Mexico (like the others).
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2326. DDR
8:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Barbados,the system looks like it will pass through the windard island and we should get some welcomed rain,its also been dry here in Trinidad.
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2324. Weather456
4:28 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2323. Patrap
3:27 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
A new site added to the wunderground Tropical/Hurricane Page

RAMMB: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Cooperative Research Program | Office of Research and Applications/Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Currently Active Tropical Cyclones


Last Updated 9 Minutes Ago


Link
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2322. TheCaneWhisperer
8:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What the? What is that well defined surface circulation between 96 and 97L @ 14N 46W?
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2321. BahaHurican
4:26 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Hmmm,

I think I'm going to take a little nap. By then the 5 pm should be out. ETC.
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2320. cirrocumulus
8:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I know this sounds crazy but ever since that storm dropped down into Southern California from the gulf of Alaska, the tropics has intensified. There is a connection, you know, between the events such as the northern lights and storm formation. The sunspots and magnetic activity needs to be investigated for these patterns.
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2319. Barbados
8:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Models have 97L coming almost directly over Barbados. Records show that Barbados has not been hit directly by a hurricane sine 1955 -Janet. Not sure about TD's or TS's direct hits though. We need rain badly. 1.5inches of rain for the month of Sept so far. 20 inches in August.
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2318. AndyN
8:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
The wave South of the Cape Verdes looks like the beginnings of a Large System. Spinning rather nicely...NHC has been mentioning it in their updates....Surprised its not an invest yet....Any thoughts on Gulf and Caribbean and this system South of Cape Verdes? Ironically I am hosting Be Ready Alabama Day this Friday in Tuscaloosa Alabama at the Airport.
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2317. Drakoen
8:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Navy NOGAPS model track.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
2316. Patrap
3:22 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
ALL the Imagery to the tropics,is found on the Tropical/Hurricane Page located in the HEADER bar on top of this and EVERY wunderground page.
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2315. Sfloridacat5
8:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
It would a shame if 97L becomes a major hurricane and goes into Mexico like the last two major storms.
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2314. katadman
3:21 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
Trouper415, go to this site. You'll love the imagery.

Link
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2313. Weather456
4:22 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2312. SLU
8:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
The DVORAK classifications for TD #10 never reached T2.0/2.0 which is the rating a system gets when it reaches TD status. The system also looked like crap with barely a thunderstorm within its circulation. Yet still the number 10 was still wasted by upgrading it to a tropical depression which didn't even last for more than 12 hours. The reason being "...BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...".

So here we have INVEST 97L 250 miles from land and already looking better than TD 10 ever looked. I hope the same precedent is set and that the system gets upgraded early enough because it has POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
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2311. Patrap
3:20 PM CDT on September 23, 2007
LSU Hurricane/Earth Scan Lab



Link
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2310. Trouper415
8:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Hello all, could anyone post a satellite image of the entire Atlantic basin so we can see all 3 storms. Or if anyone has a satellite loop that has all three storms in it that would be great also.

Thanks
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2309. heretolearninPR
8:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Link

to models
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2308. Stoopid1
8:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Amen retaining, they do a fine job. I don't understand how people bash them.
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2307. extreme236
8:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L looks like an L lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2306. BahaHurican
4:13 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
To be completely whimsical, maybe they were holding hands . . .

Now it looks like the romance is over.

LOL
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2305. Weather456
4:15 PM AST on September 23, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2304. retaining1
8:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Aspectre:

I agree with you that the NHC site can (probably should) contain more and better information for those that need (or want) the extra information.

Probably 90% just want the basics, which NHC provides very well. Where is it now, what path are models projecting, anticipated strength, warning areas, storm surge info and regional radar is all most people really want.

NHC does NOT need to interface with local officials or call EMAs with the latest updates. They can simply have a special link or tab on the NHC site for regional EMAs (and weather buffs) to click that provides the most up-to-date information including all the extra "stuff" that the general public doesn't really want to read.

The NHC is in the business of providing information to the public. The NHC website is probably their single greatest tool for doing that. Public officials know to go to NHC site to find the latest hurricane information.

My point is that the NHC is already doing an excellent job. They shouldn't involve themselves in state EMA policies or politics. Just put the information out there as accurately as possible in a timely manner. Let the local experts read, make their own decisions and do their jobs.
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2303. Stoopid1
8:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Wow, wouldn't doubt it if 96 was already a TD. It has organized further this afternoon(likely night where it is) and the center is become better covered by convection. I need to see a Quickscat on it, when it comes.
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2302. Smyrick145
8:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Drakoen
Are conditions favorable in the path of 97L if it were to make a more northwesterly path like what the GFDL and NOGAPS models are currently predicting?
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2301. TheCaneWhisperer
8:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Looks like the models shifted south with 97L
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2300. BahaHurican
4:10 PM EDT on September 23, 2007
Learned something new just now. U can view / access for posting any of the pics in a EUMETSAT loop by pressing the stop button then the forward / backward button until you find the one you want. I don't think linking would work, though.
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2299. youradjuster
8:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
They only fly a recon flight when they know they will have enough fuel to make it home. These storms are toooooo far out yet for recon
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.