Tropical Depression Ten slowly intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:33 PM GMT on September 21, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics today, and officially made the transition from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm at 2 pm. One could still argue that the storm is subtropical, since the satellite presentation still shows a large band of strong thunderstorms well removed from the center. However, TD 10 has developed some heavy thunderstorms right at its center, which is a key characteristic of a tropical system. This transition means that TD 10 is likely to intensify, and surface winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased about 10% since this morning. An Air Force aircraft measured a 37 knot surface wind at 1:05 pm EDT, and a NOAA aircraft measured 38 knots at 1:35 pm EDT. It's a judgment call on NHC's part to decide when this slow increase in winds merits an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Jerry. The storm still has subtropical characteristics, and this will keep its intensification rate far slower than Hurricane Humberto's. I think a 50 mph tropical storm is the strongest we'll see TD 10 get.

Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico were all below 25 knots (29 mph) early this afternoon. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle show a slow improvement in the organization of the low level spiral bands. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity is rather limited but slowly increasing. Radar estimated precipitation over the Florida Panhandle (Figure 1) has been up to three inches.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. The counterclockwise flow of air around TD 10 is feeding moisture from this disturbance across Cuba and into South Florida today. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear at present, but the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear may fall enough on Sunday or Monday to allow some development to occur. Texas and Louisiana may get heavy rains from this system on Monday.

A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. SSTs beneath the low are 80 degrees F, which is right at the border where tropical storm formation can occur. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1311. TheCaneWhisperer
12:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Morning All. 5" of rain yesterday here in Palm Beach Gardens, loving it. However, I am not going to be loving the mosquitos tonight. As we approach the end of September, the chance for a re-curve goes up substantially for anything that forms in the C&E-Atl, which is a great thing. Not out of the question for a storm to threaten land but, climatology is now on our side in the MDR.
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1310. icepilot
8:00 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Drak, where was that ob taken?
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1309. aubiesgirl
12:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
ok to my definite untraineed eye..west carr blob looks "healthy"..having said that .last nite Dr. STeve Lyons said it would be highly unlikely that it would develop..does he know something we don't know....or his he just bein extremly reserved?
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1308. Drakoen
12:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The winds are pretty high in the northern Caribbean. Though the SFC pressure is not impressive.
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 135 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.5 F
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1307. extreme236
12:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
you can definatly tell the NATL low is more organized...we will have to see if it becomes something
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1306. Weather456
8:57 AM AST on September 22, 2007
Non Tropical Low

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1305. Drakoen
12:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
yea. The western Caribbean area has an area of low pressure. Still just seeing this blob no focused area of convection to look at, although that may change. Probably the next invest.
What we wanna watch out for is west winds.
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1303. Weather456
8:51 AM AST on September 22, 2007
The two areas that will most likely become invests are the W Caribbean disturbance and the disturbance near the african coast.

the NATL low is running out of time before it becomes absorbed by larger extra-tropical cyclone currently over Canada and the wave near the windwards islands has the chance to develop but not anytime soon.
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1302. aubiesgirl
12:52 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 12:51 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: aubiesgirl at 12:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

the natl you are referring too..is that the extratropical storm that some of us were discussin yesterday?..or did something new pop up?

Yes its that non tropical low

ok makin sure I'm on the same page..lol
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1301. icepilot
7:51 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Sorry Ike, I ment to say Patrap -lol

Anyway, the Navy's got that blob off Belize disapating by the 27th
Link
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1300. extreme236
12:51 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 12:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

the natl you are referring too..is that the extratropical storm that some of us were discussin yesterday?..or did something new pop up?


Yes its that non tropical low
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1299. aubiesgirl
12:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Oh yea and for whatever it's worth..TD10 is still brinning in rain and low dark clouds here at EGlin AFB
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1298. Weather456
8:50 AM AST on September 22, 2007
African disturbance



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1297. aubiesgirl
12:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
the natl you are referring too..is that the extratropical storm that some of us were discussin yesterday?..or did something new pop up?
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1296. extreme236
12:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I think we could have a few invests....caribbean disturbance, NATL low which is organizing slowly, and the african low
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1295. aubiesgirl
12:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
do you guys think this blob will be an invest soon?
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1293. Weather456
8:44 AM AST on September 22, 2007
Convection building near the "center"

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1292. IKE
7:39 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
ECG if you have to ask Ike if he is a mod - that says it all about you.

LOL.
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1291. Drakoen
12:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Area of the coast of Africa.
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1289. Weather456
8:40 AM AST on September 22, 2007
A highly amplified tropical wave

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1288. Drakoen
12:34 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The area in the caribbean has establish an Upper level high. Also its has a weak SFC vorticity just of the coast of Belize.
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1287. aubiesgirl
12:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
what's goin on with the blob in the western Carr?
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1286. Drakoen
12:30 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
yea the environment is favorable for that low to develop. 5-10kts of shear ahead of the wave, which is low enough for development. Also SAL won't be a problem.
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1285. extreme236
12:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
BBL
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1284. extreme236
12:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

I just looked over the models and they so seem to want to develop something of Africa over the next few days. Currently there is a 1011mb low of the Africa coast that will need to be monitored for signs of development. The CMC, GFS and the Navy NOGAPS models do want to develop something.


and the enviroment for that wave seems to be at least somewhat favorable
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1283. icepilot
7:29 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Sorry Nova - thanks for the overview
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1282. icepilot
7:20 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Hi Guys, Looks quiet out there

Nova - the DTG of the QS looks resent but I see no closed circ. Your second surf chart is a forcast 10 days from now - there is a 10 day spread between the two charts.

ECG if you have to ask Ike if he is a mod - that says it all about you.

Patrap, 456, Ike et.al. You guys see anything out there that might be more than just normal wx patterns

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1281. Drakoen
12:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I just looked over the models and they so seem to want to develop something of Africa over the next few days. Currently there is a 1011mb low of the Africa coast that will need to be monitored for signs of development. The CMC, GFS and the Navy NOGAPS models do want to develop something.
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1280. TerraNova
8:17 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
Morning all. Just trying to catch up on whats what. TD10 is on land and no more? Second swirl that was out in the GOM did not develop? Something by the Yucatan? Can someone tell me what is currently going on?

For those who are just coming on:

1) TD 10 has made landfall and the last advisory has been issued.

2) The gulf swirl is still there and a little barely noticable puff of convection has fired up just to the north...but there are no signs of organization and I don't expect to see anything out of this.

3) The system in the Western Atlantic has exploded overnight with a line of strong convection...I don't see a low level circulation and there is a flow to the northeast which could act to shear this. A strong anticyclone is just west of the main mass of convection.

4) The CATL wave is looking more organized this morning and the QuickSCAT has detected a weak circulation. Convection has waned but the remaining thunderstorm activity has clustered around the center.
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1279. Drakoen
12:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The caribbean disturbance looks interesting but the convection is being influence by a number of things and there are no signs of organization.
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1278. Weather456
8:12 AM AST on September 22, 2007
ok
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1277. TerraNova
8:13 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
The ECMWF predicts the CATL system to develop quickly then move off in an Ingrid-like path then dissipate due to shear.

ecmwf

Then it pops a subtropical/tropical system seemingly out of nowhere east of the Carolinas...I don't see a consistency with the other runs and this is too far off to seriously be considered.

ecmwf
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1276. cattlebaroness
12:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Morning all. Just trying to catch up on whats what. TD10 is on land and no more? Second swirl that was out in the GOM did not develop? Something by the Yucatan? Can someone tell me what is currently going on?

Preciate it.
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1275. TerraNova
8:10 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
Terra,

every time i click on one of images to view it..this comes up

The page cannot be displayed


It could be your browser. I'm using IE6 an I can see them just fine. Other than that I don't know...

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1274. Weather456
8:03 AM AST on September 22, 2007
Terra,

every time i click on one of images to view it..this comes up

The page cannot be displayed
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1273. TerraNova
8:00 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: TerraNova at 7:45 AM AST on September 22, 2007

could you help me..i cant get those images that u are getting. something to do with an ftp server.


If you're trying to post the image, you can't because it's an FTP server and not HTTP.

The best way to do so is to click on the image that you want on this page for example and save it then upload it onto a site such as Imageshack. You can also just view them from there.
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1272. Weather456
7:57 AM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: TerraNova at 7:49 AM AST on September 22, 2007.

yeah thats the most recent one
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1271. Weather456
7:46 AM AST on September 22, 2007
Posted By: TerraNova at 7:45 AM AST on September 22, 2007

could you help me..i cant get those images that u are getting. something to do with an ftp server.
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1270. Patrap
6:51 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico


Link
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1269. extreme236
11:50 AM GMT on September 22, 2007
the one catl wave we were watching last week had a sfc circulation but was never declared an invest...maybe they like to wait for some organization first
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1267. TerraNova
7:47 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
Is this QuickSCAT recent? It shows a surface circulation with the CATL system...if it is recent then I would expect to see an invest fairly soon.

qs?
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1266. blueranch
11:45 AM GMT on September 22, 2007
hey patrap i wasn't on most of the night was it this heated last pm too?
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1265. Patrap
6:45 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean
click to ENlarge

Link
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1264. Eyewall911
11:43 AM GMT on September 22, 2007
yeah blue it should be a busy weak
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1263. Patrap
6:45 AM CDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) at 12:04 PM CDT on September 21, 2007.
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1262. TerraNova
7:44 AM EDT on September 22, 2007
Wind field at TD 10's time of landfall:

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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