Tropical Depression Ten slowly intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:33 PM GMT on September 21, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics today, and officially made the transition from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm at 2 pm. One could still argue that the storm is subtropical, since the satellite presentation still shows a large band of strong thunderstorms well removed from the center. However, TD 10 has developed some heavy thunderstorms right at its center, which is a key characteristic of a tropical system. This transition means that TD 10 is likely to intensify, and surface winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased about 10% since this morning. An Air Force aircraft measured a 37 knot surface wind at 1:05 pm EDT, and a NOAA aircraft measured 38 knots at 1:35 pm EDT. It's a judgment call on NHC's part to decide when this slow increase in winds merits an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Jerry. The storm still has subtropical characteristics, and this will keep its intensification rate far slower than Hurricane Humberto's. I think a 50 mph tropical storm is the strongest we'll see TD 10 get.

Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico were all below 25 knots (29 mph) early this afternoon. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle show a slow improvement in the organization of the low level spiral bands. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity is rather limited but slowly increasing. Radar estimated precipitation over the Florida Panhandle (Figure 1) has been up to three inches.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. The counterclockwise flow of air around TD 10 is feeding moisture from this disturbance across Cuba and into South Florida today. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear at present, but the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear may fall enough on Sunday or Monday to allow some development to occur. Texas and Louisiana may get heavy rains from this system on Monday.

A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. SSTs beneath the low are 80 degrees F, which is right at the border where tropical storm formation can occur. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1411. catastropheadjuster
2:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
KORI Dont feel that way, there's a lot of good folks here and your one of them. We just need a weed eater to weed the trolls out. I don't know who said it the other day but it was really smart to do. Don't even acknowladge them and auticmately put them on ignore and they'll never now what hit them. When no one speaks to them.
(yeah i know i spelled them words wrong only on second cup of coffee)
Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3674
1410. catastropheadjuster
2:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
StormJunkie: Your not feeling better yet? I sure hope you get to feeling better soon.
Good Morning StormW,SJ,Drak,Ike. And who ever I missed.
So does it look like there is anything brewing out there guys?
The sun is shinning here in Mobile. Might get to go fishing. A big maybe.
Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3674
1408. cattlebaroness
2:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Will they be running a recon on 94L today? Those models differ greatly in direction.
1407. sporteguy03
2:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I have no problem with forecasts on the Hurricane season, alot of things have to do with politics. Everyone has an opinion and they are entitled to voice it. Why would Dr.Masters care if it is a busy season or not? Last time I checked weather is not like a business, it does not go out of business or foreclose, it is always there and will be there as will someone's opionions on what it is going to do.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5288
1406. StormJunkie
2:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
GHCC site usually updates before the SSD site. SSD is usually 15-30 minutes behind the SSD site. I do like the overlays on the SSD site and the CIMSS site as well. Also like the fact that the North America GOES east imagery updates more often on the GHCC as well as providing a higher zoom factor then the other sectors there.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16433
1405. IKE
2:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1404. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Well..the game is afoot again. 94L..A north mover thru time.

Cue the Jaws Music....
LOL!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127917
1403. icmoore
2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
The pirate has had enough attention. Cat
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1402. IKE
2:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:20 AM CDT on September 22, 2007.
it takes 94L up to 63kt or cat 1 hurrican in 120hrs any one that lives from uper tx to LA coast line needs to watch this


That's almost exactly what was said about 93L...even by Bastardi, and it hits the panhandle of Florida.

I do think this system goes further west with high pressure building in. Just not convinced it's a Texas issue yet.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1401. louisianaweatherguy
2:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
94L is ALREADY a TROPICAL DISTURBANCE and not a possible SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...

Not liking this for TX/LA/MS area... Don't have a good feeling about this one...
Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 692
1400. StormJunkie
2:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
It's all good Drak, just thought it was a funny way to make your point ☺ made me laugh.

Again, I think it was just the WU updating their images.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16433
1399. Drakoen
2:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Drak, do you not use the GHCC site? It's like your own personal floater.

Find that link and much more on the Quick Links page.


yes i do use that site. I prefer the SSD site better...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1397. Drakoen
2:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Prelimary runs. Hopefully we should get more reliable runs later today.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1396. StormJunkie
2:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Drak, do you not use the GHCC site? It's like your own personal floater.

Find that link and much more on the Quick Links page.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16433
1395. Tazmanian
2:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
it takes 94L up to 63kt or cat 1 hurrican in 120hrs any one that lives from uper tx to LA coast line needs to watch this

lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114968
1394. IKE
2:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: pirateotobx at 9:19 AM CDT on September 22, 2007.
Lightningcharmer you are right..most are here for study of storms etc..My problem is with the ones higher up that create all this.


You have a problem with the ones higher up that are calling for an above average season, when it's an above average season, so far. Their correct.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1393. Patrap
2:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127917
1392. Drakoen
2:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

A personal issue...lmao...No it was not a personal issue...You are a trip :~)

Your image was a visible image of Felix just past the Islands. I think it had something to do with the WU just getting the images updated.


I wasn't trying to make a joke. What you saw and what i saw were different things.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1391. cattlebaroness
2:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
No one on this blog appears to be trying to control Mother Nature. They try to forecast situations that may occur and therefore forewarn folks so they may prepare, in the event of a dangerous weather situation. I for one appreciate all of their efforts. If you find this offensive, perhaps you should find another weather website to monitor.

JMO
1390. StormJunkie
2:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
A personal issue...lmao...No it was not a personal issue...You are a trip :~)

Your image was a visible image of Felix just past the Islands. I think it had something to do with the WU just getting the images updated.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16433
1388. IKE
2:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Navy info on 94L....

94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-180N-855W
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1387. Drakoen
2:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Drak, is that just supposed to be some correlation with the last 94L?


I think thats a personal issue. On my computer it shows 94L in the Caribbean.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1386. StormJunkie
2:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Drak, is that just supposed to be some correlation with the last 94L?

Well that was weird. Your original pic of 94L was of Felix...Very strange. Image seems to be correct now.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16433
1385. Drakoen
2:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hopefully the will put a floater on it soon, though that usually takes forever...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1384. msmanatee
2:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Hope somebody fixes Invest94 sat image.. animates wrong system.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
1383. seafarer459
2:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
SJ,

Wish i could remember,sorry. Funny thing is I was living with a girl that worked @ the Atlantic house
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1382. taco2me61
2:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Well I am glade that this thing did not happen as they thought....(Being on the Gulf Coast) But I do see the Gulf of Mexico is now open for Business..... We could not only see 1 storm coming but possible up to 3..... Now thats what I see as of today, and maybe something different by tomorrow but time will only tell......

Taco :0)

Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3256
1381. IKE
2:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Deal with each storm one at a time as they appear..but coming out with these predictions is silly...they are making just that..predictions .

The "experts" called for an above average season...so far, it has been.

What's your complaint about the experts, if their correct? You're complaining about them being wrong and their not, so far.

What else do you want to complain about?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1380. Drakoen
2:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1379. StormJunkie
2:11 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
459, what was the name of the house next to The Atlantic House?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16433
1378. pirateotobx
2:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 1:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Okay Mr. wx expert...where's your forecast and data to back it up?

I never said I was an expert..I'm just making an observation. I live on the coast so I keep up with storms but thats about it. But you're making my point. How can anyone come out with a weather prediction months in advance based on some computer data and their best educated guesses. You can't control Mother Nature. You think they would have figured this out by now. Deal with each storm one at a time as they appear..but coming out with these predictions is silly...they are making just that..predictions . I'd be just as well off going to see a fortune teller. That's my point...it's business and money.
1377. seafarer459
2:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
SJ'

LOL. We are getting old :)
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1376. StormJunkie
2:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Will do br :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16433
1375. LightningCharmer
2:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: pirateotobx at 1:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

I'm not a frequent poster here. I am a frequent observer.

You're right; hurricanes are big business but so are auto accidents. There are some who thrive on disaster mongering and catastrophy wishing. They are not unique to tropical storms. Whether it be a plane crash, earthquake, volcano, act of terrorism, they glee.

I have found on this blog most are more interested in the formation of tropical storm and trying to understand their paths and their intensities than doomsaying or doom-hoping.

Most posters here are more scientist than anything else. Science is about observing, collecting data, hypothesising, presenting to peers, debating, and drawing conclusions. I find that all here.

I suggest you lurk or observe. I think you'll find that to be true.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
1374. Tazmanian
2:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
yes IKE
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114968
1373. Drakoen
2:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1372. IKE
2:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
OOPS..I guess so.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1371. StormJunkie
2:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
No kidding 459! About this time I was walking around the block with a few others just looking at all the "uhhh" expressions on peoples faces! Hard to believe it was 18 years ago.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16433
1370. IKE
2:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Anyone notice 94L is up on the Navy site?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1369. Cavin Rawlins
2:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
94L Invest
25 Knots
1010 mb

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1368. Tazmanian
2:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114968
1367. StormJunkie
2:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
lmao pirate! First time we have ever had two CAT 5 landfalls in one season and you are talking about over hyping...From your post I take that the US is the only thing that matters.

As for hurricane season being a business for some, yes it is. But then again, I guess you would argue that funeral parlor owners are evil folks hoping for people to die, or cancer dr's are hoping for folks to get cancer, or EMT's are hoping for a car accident, or that police don't want to stop crime because it would put them out of work if they ever succeeded. Your argument really holds no weight imho.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16433
1366. Drakoen
2:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Thanks Taz, Good work...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1365. Cavin Rawlins
2:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
we have 94L Invest
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1364. Drakoen
2:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
We have 94L!
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1363. Tazmanian
2:03 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
94L is on the navy site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114968
1362. Cavin Rawlins
2:03 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Floater on the african disturbance

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1361. blueranch
2:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
stormj, when you are feeling better and get more videos let me know.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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