Gulf of Mexico low nears tropical depression status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 21, 2007

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A large low pressure system (93L) over the Gulf of Mexico has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics, but is in no hurry to intensify. Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico this morning have been 30 knots (35 mph), so this storm could technically qualify as a tropical depression if the current hurricane hunter mission finds a well-defined center of circulation. There are two Hurricane Hunters aircraft in the storm right now, and they have found several swaths of surface winds of 35 mph. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle clearly show the storm's circulation, but the low level spiral bands are not well organized and are only slowly getting more organized. Satellite loops show a large, sloppy-looking storm. Storms that start off as large, non-tropical systems like 93L typically take several days to organize and become fully tropical, and 93L will not have time to become anything worse than a minimal tropical storm. The storm is capable of dumping some heavy rains along its path--radar estimated precipitation from the Tallahassee radar (Figure 1) were as high as three inches. As 93L becomes more tropical in nature, it will be able to generate higher rain amounts. But, with the storm expected to move inland by Saturday afternoon, it does not appear 93L has time to generate the kind of tropical rains that would make it a serious flood threat.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica, in association with a surface trough of low pressure. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel and Cancun on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The region will need to be watched for development on Sunday as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict an upper air pattern favorable for formation of a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Heavy rains from this system may hit Louisiana and/or Texas on Monday.

A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.


Figure 2. Current visible satellite image showing 93L near the Florida Panhandle (top of image) and the western Caribbean disturbance (bottom right of image).

I'll have an update late this afternoon when the next set of computer models runs are available.

Jeff Masters

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1063. sporteguy03
7:40 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Philadelphia Freedom
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
1062. helove2trac
9:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
so where is the wave in the carribean going and when is it going to get in the gom
1061. cattlebaroness
8:10 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Just curious, how do you set up a profile?
1059. CloudFreak
7:54 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Floodman - a dream that can never be... They don't really limit us, but I need to smuggle a 1GB chip in here somehow, just so I can have IE stop crashing on me.. :P

Anywho.. I'm off... It's Yom Kippur (Jewish holiday) so if anyone on here's Jewish, have an easy fast. If anyone on here's Jewish and lives in the path of any storms, remember that you don't have to fast if you're in dire straits!

I hope everyone does well tonight. I don't see this storm being a major event, but just in case:
Take care of yourselves and those you love. Be careful... stay safe.

'Nite
1057. weatherboyjohnny
7:48 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Well I am off to swimming, looks like SEFL is gonna get slammed tonight with some rain from Cuba. Looks like I won't be swimming tonight :)
1054. aspectre
7:45 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
TheMasterCylinder "the melting icecap drew few comments, yet a "puff of wind" in the gulf has drawn a lot of attention. There is some psychology at play here"

Not much.
While Dr.Masters' posting did give permission, pretty much everybody knows that any conversation about IcecapMelting leads to GlobalWarming leads to political arguments leads to MonicaLewinski. And she was never that interesting.
Especially when we had nearTropicalSeductress Ingrid teasing us. We are a TropicalStorm forum.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1053. Floodman
7:42 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Posted By: CloudFreak at 7:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

extreme - thanks! I guess that makes sense. Just b/c it doesn't make landfall doesn't mean it shouldn't be recognized.

Floodman - NOAA's usually my site of choice, but everytime I open a loop, my browser dies on me... It's these useless work machines... 128MB RAM... and they expect me to TRADE on this thing?! yeah right...


Traders, dude...save money on the way you do the work, and spend tons bringing more work in...who knew. I used to be a programmer in the banking industry; kissing cousins, but they operate the same way...

You may want to try pulling in FireFox and see if it gives you any better results
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1052. blueranch
7:40 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
I didn't know there were profiles, just interested in the info.
1051. FitzRoy
7:40 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Why MIT?
1050. TampaSpin
7:39 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
i can't figure out how to put an image up....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1049. mit5000
7:39 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
ahem

stay on here
1048. mit5000
7:39 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Posted By: mississippiwx23 at 7:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

The next advisory comes out at 5pm EST, 4pm CST...it is currently 2:35 pm
CST

and in bst 22:00
1047. StormHype
7:38 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
A area of low pressure in the far northeastern Atlantic 1100 miles east of Bermuda is gradually gaining tropical characteristics and could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next day or so.


Ah, but the charter of NHC and NWS alike (both under NOAA) is to warn US citizens about weather hazards for protection of life and property. It's not to conjecture and potificate all possibilities for weather enthusiasts. I'm sure there are strict guidelines on what the TWO product is supposed to contain and no more.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1203
1044. Sophmom
7:36 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
When I go to the NOAA site to look at the images, I can see two distinct COCs. I know this has been discussed at length, and it's been the case with this storm since the Atlantic low crossed FL and hooked up (for lack of a better term) with the Gulf low (what, two days ago?). My question is, just how unusual is this? I've been watching these storms closely (watching the data) since 2001 and can't recall ever seeing anything like this before.

Also, while I have nothing at all in my profile, I promise, I'm not a troll.
1043. CycloneBoz
7:36 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Looking at the radar loop, TD-10 is about to become TS Jerry. I'd say within 30 minutes.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 217
1042. mississippiwx23
7:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
The next advisory comes out at 5pm EST, 4pm CST...it is currently 2:35 pm CST
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
1041. RadarRich
7:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
ITCZ tpyo, just learning the lingo.
Member Since: June 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
1039. extreme236
7:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Posted By: DallasGumby at 7:34 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

Posted By: Bonedog at 7:15 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

question the tropical front page has TD10 at 35knts wouldn't that make it Jerry?

Actually, the page says 35 mph, not 35 knots; so, no, that does not make it Jerry.


Not jerry yet...maybe in about 30-45minutes
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1038. TampaSpin
7:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1037. CloudFreak
7:35 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
extreme - thanks! I guess that makes sense. Just b/c it doesn't make landfall doesn't mean it shouldn't be recognized.

Floodman - NOAA's usually my site of choice, but everytime I open a loop, my browser dies on me... It's these useless work machines... 128MB RAM... and they expect me to TRADE on this thing?! yeah right...
1035. NOLAinNC
7:34 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
My mistake Eyewall, saw a few questionable comments. I'm half pirate.
I'm hoping this storm makes landfall before it has a chance to strengthen. The radar makes it look like it is trying to do so.
1034. extreme236
7:34 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
but the system I am interested in is that low pressure 1100mi east of bermuda...looks to be becoming more tropical
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1033. DallasGumby
7:34 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Posted By: Bonedog at 7:15 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

question the tropical front page has TD10 at 35knts wouldn't that make it Jerry?


Actually, the page says 35 mph, not 35 knots; so, no, that does not make it Jerry.
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
1032. extreme236
7:30 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:31 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

I see tropical depression 10 has formed. Still looks like a sloppy system. Nothing to write home about...


sloppy, but strong enough to see jerry at 5pm or so
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1031. RadarRich
7:32 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
2. NW Caribeann Disturbance at this time has no significant circulation. The last few hours actually show a blowup near Cuba that bears watching over the next 24-48 hours. Heading in a general Northward motion.

My Last cent. #3. At coordinates 8-12 North/ 45-50 west. In this ITTZ area, there is a definite spin starting to occur and some convection flaring around this spin. Noticeable in the visible imagery and the water vapor loops. JMO, carry on Folks
Member Since: June 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
1030. extreme236
7:31 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Posted By: mit5000 at 7:29 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

Posted By: Vortex95 at 7:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

Interesting day it should become jerry at 5 pm.

correction - 4pm


Well, they are talking about the official advisory, it may be on the navy site at 4 though
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1029. Drakoen
7:31 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
I see tropical depression 10 has formed. Still looks like a sloppy system. Nothing to write home about...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
1028. mit5000
7:29 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Posted By: Vortex95 at 7:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

Interesting day it should become jerry at 5 pm.


correction - 4pm
1027. extreme236
7:29 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Posted By: CloudFreak at 7:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

Thanks extreme236 - are there any links to floaters, that you're awaer of? Can I ask what the point is of naming these NATL storms? Do they have ANY potential to wreak some havoc... ? anywhere?


No floaters on it yet...they usually wait til it really gets going for these NATL systems...but the main point on naming these is the same reason why they name epac storms heading out to sea, because they just qualify for a tropical cyclone
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1026. Floodman
7:30 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Cloud, try this for the floaters
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1025. louisianaweatherguy
7:29 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
the center is really a whole lot closer to Panama City than what the NHC thinks...

i believe that is good news for New Orleans... IF this thing holds a WNW/NW track and DOESN'T GO ANYMORE WESTWARD...

BUT... models continue to move TD 10 towards the west/WNW direction

Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 692
1024. Patrap
7:29 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
ALL the Floaters,Models..and other tropical info can be found on the wunderground Tropical/Hurricane page in the header AT THE TOP OF every WU-PAGE

Link

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
1023. PascMississippi
7:29 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
So the models changed where they are showing landfall.......
1021. New2hurricanes
7:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Thank you!
1020. mit5000
7:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
what time is it?

i.e how long till 4pm advisory
1018. extreme236
7:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Posted By: TampaSpin at 7:26 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.

Posted By: extreme236 at 7:23 PM GMT on September 21, 2007

Extreme i like you no matter what kinda fool try to show...lol


thanks...I guess lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1017. CloudFreak
7:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
Thanks extreme236 - are there any links to floaters, that you're awaer of? Can I ask what the point is of naming these NATL storms? Do they have ANY potential to wreak some havoc... ? anywhere?
1016. RadarRich
7:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
My 3 cents worth
1. TD 10 may make Tropical Storm status before landfall, but serious intensification is probably not going to happen. Everyone should be prepared for one category higher than the projected status. So if you are in the forcast zone, be ready (safer than sorry) for a potential category 1 Hurricane, if this pulls a Humberto.
Member Since: June 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
1015. aubiesgirl
7:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
it's startin to drizzle here in fwb..lol
1014. extreme236
7:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
From the NHC's glossary:

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.