Ingrid dies; possible Gulf of Mexico storm this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on September 17, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ingrid finally succumbed to a long period of 20-30 knots of wind shear that lasted three days. There is still a bit of spin left to Ingrid's remains, and some scattered thunderstorm activity. However, with wind shear still 20-30 knots, and expected to stay 20-30 knots for at least another day, it will be difficult for Ingrid's remains to regenerate into a tropical storm again.

Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean development?
The four reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis continue to predict that a tropical storm will pop up in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. The forecasted storm is expected to move westward into Texas by Sunday. However, steering currents will be complicated by the expected formation of an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico later this week. The Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, northern Gulf Coast, and Florida Gulf Coast could also be at risk.

The seed for the formation of such a storm could come from a tropical wave in the Central Caribbean that was kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity yesterday. This activity has quieted down today. Another possibility is that an old frontal zone stretching from the Carolinas southwards along the U.S. East Coast and across northern Florida could spawn something. I give a 40% chance a tropical storm will form in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico this week. NHC had a hurricane hunter aircraft on call to fly today in case something popped up, but this flight was canceled.

Tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic
A tropical wave near 12N, 43W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving west at 10-15 mph. This wave has some disorganized thunderstorm activity, and some slow development is possible over the next 2-3 days. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain below 15 knots over the next 2-3 days. The UKMET model is the only reliable model developing this wave into a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate this system on Wednesday, when it should be about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.