Ingrid disintigrating under high wind shear

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:22 PM GMT on September 15, 2007

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Tropical Storm Ingrid is slowly disintegrating in the face of strong upper-level westerly winds, which are creating about 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Satellite loops of Ingrid show that the shear has removed almost all of Ingrid's heavy thunderstorm activity. This wind shear is expected to remain around 30 knots through Sunday, then gradually decline to 10 knots by Monday. It is questionable whether Ingrid can survive such high sustained levels of shear, and there is at least a 60% chance the storm will be destroyed. Even in the event the storm is destroyed, it could regenerate early next week and threaten Bermuda. It is unclear at this time whether Ingrid (or its remains) will recurve out to sea or be forced westward towards the U.S. in the 6-10 day time frame.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all suggest a tropical depression may form in the Western Caribbean on Wednesday and move northwards into the Gulf of Mexico or over Florida.

A tropical wave a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving west at 10-15 mph. This wave shows no signs of development, but is under only 10 knots of wind shear. Shear is expected to remain below 10 knots over the next 2-3 days over the wave, which may allow it to develop.

I'll have an update Sunday morning by 10am EDT.
Jeff Masters

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.