Humberto will bring serious flooding to Texas and Louisiana; TD 8 strengthening in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2007

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Tropical Storm Humberto is steadily gaining strength as it closes in on the Texas coast near Freeport. Radar animations from Houston show a well-defined circulation, with plenty of low-level spiral bands wrapping around the center. Humberto is organizing quickly, and it is a good thing it has less than 12 hours remaining over water. Despite the rather intimidating appearance of Humberto on radar, the winds have not shown a major increase yet. A buoy 70 miles south of Freeport has measured sustained winds of 25 mph since 8:50am EDT. The region of winds above 35 knots (40 mph) as estimated by the Houston Doppler radar have shown a steady increase, doubling in area over the past two hours (keep in mind that due to the curvature of the earth, these winds are measured at an altitude of roughly 2,000 feet 50 miles from the radar). Top winds reported by the Hurricane Hunters in their 2:55pm EDT center fix were 38 knots at flight level, which corresponds to about 35 mph at the surface. They measured a pressure of 1001 mb, 4 mb lower than the estimated pressure from the 2pm EDT advisory from NHC. Winds from the SFMR instrument on the aircraft were 35 knots (40 mph) in several locations, with one spot of 51 mph winds.


Figure 1. Latest radar image from Houston, Texas.

Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots, and Humberto has time to develop into a 50-55 mph tropical storm before it makes landfall tonight. Since this system is slow moving, it has the potential to drop rain amounts in excess of ten inches along the Texas and Louisiana coasts--including the Houston metropolitan area--over the next two days. These rains may cause widespread destructive flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches have already occurred along the coast, from Galveston to just beyond the Louisiana border, as estimated by radar.

Tropical Depression Eight
Tropical Depression Eight formed this morning, and has the potential to grow into a hurricane in the next 3-4 days. This morning's 8:18am EDT pass of the European ASCAT satellite captured the circulation of TD 8 nicely, and showed that it was still somewhat elliptical, which will slow down intensification until the circulation grows more circular. ASCAT estimated winds up to 25 knots (30 mph) on the northwest side of TD 8. Satellite loops of TD 8 have shown a slow but steady improvement in organization since early this morning. A large area of thunderstorms reach high in the atmosphere (as evidenced by very cold cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery), an upper-level outflow channel has opened to the south, and some low-level spiral banding is now apparent. Several satellite intensity estimates put TD 8 at tropical storm strength already, and I expect that this will be a tropical storm later today.

Wind shear is about 10 knots over TD 8, and is forecast to remain below 10 knots through Saturday morning. This should allow TD 8 the opportunity to grow to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday, as predicted by the latest (12Z, 8am EDT) rund of the GFDL and HWRF intensity models. By Saturday afternoon, the models have different solutions on what will happen to TD 8. An upper-level trough will lie north of the Lesser Antilles at that time, and may bring hostile wind shear to TD 8. The GFDL model predicts that this shear will be strong enough to reduce TD 8 to a weak tropical storm. The HWRF model disagrees, and keeps the storm at Category 1 hurricane strength. The SHIPS intensity model says the shear will increase to about 15 knots, which would slow but perhaps not completely halt intensification. The farther north the storm goes, the better--wind shear will be stronger to the north.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly a research mission into TD 8 Thursday evening.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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939. Oldmanwinter
2:32 PM GMT on September 13, 2007
Please, could someone tell me if that stalled frontal boundry that was in the Gulf had anything to do with Humburto? It seems that it formed very close to the stalled stationary front, i know from my many years of being a weather observer in the Southeast that low pressure systems form on stalled fronts in the Gulf of Mexico, but mainly in the winter and late Fall months, i found it odd that a tropical system could form like this.
Member Since: March 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
938. FitzRoy
9:04 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Muff,

You need to go to the new blog here. I'm also in the UK - where are you?
937. Muffelchen
8:55 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Is this blog working today?

It says last post @ 8:52am GMT yet the last one I can see is this one:

rainraingoaway at 1:47 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Any explanations?

This morning of all mornings........(UK based)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
936. rainraingoaway
1:47 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Hi Tx, if u dont mind me asking...where are you at? Im in the big town of Danbury, but I grew up in LC (actually off of calder drive) and remember Claudette and all of the flooding. I'm certain no one there realizes how bad it was and that all those pretty new homes would be under water.....just wondering. Prayers are with those of u east of me with Humberto....hope he keeps on moving....(and faster, please)
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 273
935. Malachai
1:23 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Houston appears to have dodged another one. Humberto now heading slightly north of east, tracing the coast. Weak eye did not make landfall. I wonder what the models will make of that later, and if it affects the current loop back into the gulf? For you experts, if it stays in the gulf, and still makes the loop, doesn't it then have great potential to consolidate into a much stronger storm?
934. catastropheadjuster
1:21 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
DrM has a new blog up.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3657
933. TX
1:19 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
24hr rainfall over Houston and Harris County as of 8pm tonight

houston rain
932. Beta
1:19 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Look's like Humberto could become a Hurricane
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
931. TX
1:15 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Tropical Storm Claudette, late July 1979

claudette 79
930. TX
1:10 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Tropical Storm Allison's Harris County Rainfall Totals, June 5-9, 2001

allison
929. watercayman
1:04 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
SLU - I saw what you are talking about - TD8 looked like it was heading south there for a moment.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
928. TX
1:03 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
quakes
927. HopquickSteve
12:52 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Humberto jogging to the east a bit?
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
926. groundman
12:45 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Posted By: KRL at 12:26 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.
Posted By: Garnowich at 12:04 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.


Earthquakes, Floods, Droughts, Melting Polar Caps, Hurricanes, Tsuanmis, LOL, all we need now is a Meteor strike.


SHUSH!!!

I can't help it, I'm really sorry, give me the - for this. Did GW cause the meteor???
925. truecajun
12:45 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Thankyou, Drak. Didn't one of the models predict a storm "eating up" TD8? Could that blob Southeast of TD8 be what the model was picking up on? I'm not concerned, just curious.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
924. StormJunkie
12:44 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Dr M's new blog
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15760
922. Drakoen
12:42 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
New Blog!
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
921. theWoodman
12:41 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
I live in Bridge City, Texas. That's the north end of Sabine Lake on the TX/LA border. I've live in this area all my life and have experienced storm since Audrey in 57. Here is my prediction on Humberto. The cold front washed out about 100 miles north of us yesterday. The storm will continue to turn to the NNE and parallel the upper Texas Coast between Galveston and Sabine Pass Texas. It will remain far enough offshore long enough to become a minimal Cat 1 with a windspeed of 80 miles an hour before coming ashore between Sabine Pass and Cameron Louisiana about mid morning on Thursday very near where Rita came ashore in 2005. Comments are welcome
920. KRL
12:41 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Posted By: TXKiwi at 12:31 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

What about an alien landing?


They're already here and have been coming here for a long long time. How do you think we went from a planet of microbes to a planet of monkeys to a planet of humans all of a sudden? If you study ancient cave carvings, for example, they've got pictures of flying saucers and beings wearing helmets coming out of them.

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
919. SLU
12:41 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
On radar Humberto looks like a mature hurricane. I'm surprised that the NHC hasn't increased the winds.

Is it me, or is TD 8 trying to form a new center further south near the deep convection.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4899
918. hurricanehanna
12:40 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
hey Drak - is it me, or does it look like Humberto is wabbling to the east a bit?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
917. Crawls
12:40 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
LouisianaBoy444 where are you?
Member Since: August 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
916. JupiterFL
12:39 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
KRL He didn't say anything about those areas. He drew an arrow and said it would be between PR and Bermuda. Thats a huge area. Nothing about Virginia or Carolinas.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
915. IKE
12:37 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Posted By: KRL at 7:30 PM CDT on September 12, 2007.
Joe at Accuweather saying TD8 likely Carolina's to Virginia and not curving or FL.

Joe's Forecast Video


He didn't say it wasn't Florida's...he just said it likely wouldn't recurve.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
914. STSUCKS
12:38 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Posted By: scwindsaloft at 7:36 PM CDT on September 12, 2007.

Posted By: KRL at 12:30 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Joe at Accuweather saying TD8 likely Carolina's to Virginia and not curving or FL.

Joe's Forecast Video

I didn't hear any mention of the carolinas to virginia on that video clip


Same here
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
913. louisianaboy444
12:37 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
hows the movement on humberto is it back on track?
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
912. TXKiwi
12:37 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Hey guys... I know he's only just done one, but a new DrM blog is up
911. scwindsaloft
12:36 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Posted By: KRL at 12:30 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Joe at Accuweather saying TD8 likely Carolina's to Virginia and not curving or FL.

Joe's Forecast Video


I didn't hear any mention of the carolinas to virginia on that video clip
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
910. bajelayman2
12:35 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Fred. No problem, thanks very much for the info.

I'll bookmark and review.

Thanks!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 487
909. usmcweathr
12:35 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
That's a pretty strong outflow moving across the Yucatan
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
908. ridesthestorms
12:35 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
hey darkoen what is your take on the ts
Member Since: July 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
907. Drakoen
12:35 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Posted By: truecajun at 12:33 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Drak, what is that southeast of 08L or whatever its name is now--TD9??


Associate with a tropical wave. Way too far south to be of any concern, though computer models are showing development so we should watch it. Its nothing as of now.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
906. Drakoen
12:33 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Humberto.
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905. truecajun
12:33 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Drak, what is that southeast of 08L or whatever its name is now--TD9??
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
904. NoMeteorsInOlogy
12:33 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
bajelayman2 Sorry--tried to reach my brother in Houston. This site has links to wunderground-compatible weather station providers. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/index.asp

You can buy stuff in pieces--and be a player, not just a spectator.
Member Since: August 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1038
903. Drakoen
12:33 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
KRL, If joe is already making predicitons about a U.S. landfall that should automatically be a red flag. He has nothing to base his information on that far out. Crap in, Crap out.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
902. pablolopez26
12:32 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Aliens sounds good... Or we could get a Lochness Monster type or something emerging from the Gulf...
901. KRL
12:30 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Joe at Accuweather saying TD8 likely Carolina's to Virginia and not curving or FL.

Joe's Forecast Video
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
900. IcemanMC
12:31 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
after watching HH93's radar, it certainly appears to me there is a more easterly component to humberto, any data leading anyone to believe the storm will continue to skirt the TX coast into LA and intensify? What are the possibilties of stalling?
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 275
899. TXKiwi
12:31 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Posted By: KRL at 12:26 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.
Posted By: Garnowich at 12:04 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Actually showing as a 7.5 and closer to land than the 8.4 this morning. Should be another Tsunami on this one.

Earthquakes, Floods, Droughts, Melting Polar Caps, Hurricanes, Tsuanmis, LOL, all we need now is a Meteor strike.



What about an alien landing?
898. Drakoen
12:30 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Posted By: usmcweathr at 12:29 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

The right front quadrant is east of galveston over water. Galveston is in the front left quadrant.


Yea i know that. I said the right front quadrant is coming ashore. Looks like it will clip Galveston.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
897. chklingon
12:30 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
ROFL cosmicevents.

O.K. If I read the tea leaves right, the advancing front (Fairly strong) will shove the reminants back out to sea. The GFS shows that nicely, the NAM wifs it entirely as it is currently in Brownsville. (NOT!) However it does back up the front.

Any one else have a pair of weather dice that show any other reason for the recurve instead of pulling it up ahead of it and outta here?
896. StormJunkie
12:29 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Humberto MIMIC Imagery

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15760
895. bajelayman2
12:29 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
KRL

Meteor Strike, please do not put your foot in it....

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 487
894. usmcweathr
12:29 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
The right front quadrant is east of galveston over water. Galveston is in the front left quadrant.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
893. pablolopez26
12:29 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Yeah i left myself pretty wide open for that one... But it is looking a little darker than usual for a sunset... Nice and yellow right now by where i live...
892. extreme236
12:29 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Posted By: KRL at 12:26 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Posted By: Garnowich at 12:04 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.
8.0 earthquake JUST HIT


Actually showing as a 7.5 and closer to land than the 8.4 this morning. Should be another Tsunami on this one.

Earthquakes, Floods, Droughts, Melting Polar Caps, Hurricanes, Tsuanmis, LOL, all we need now is a Meteor strike.


Where was this quake at?
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
891. WeatherRhino
12:28 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00627134.php

Is your Dad OK from the quake?
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
890. Garnowich
12:27 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
Look at that eye forming! This is going to be crazy. Look out Louisiana!
889. VAbeachhurricanes
12:27 AM GMT on September 13, 2007
wait so your saying another one JUST hit? i thought u were talking about the one this morning
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6145

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.