Gabrielle forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:12 AM GMT on September 08, 2007

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Subtropical Storm Gabrielle formed tonight, after a day-long struggle trying to figure out which of two centers to consolidate around. Gabrielle finally decided it would use both centers, and a very large and elongated circulation is the result. This makes Gabrielle a subtropical storm, since the heavy thunderstorm activity is well removed from the center of circulation. Had the storm been able to consolidate around a single center, it would have become a tropical storm, not a subtropical storm.

Wind shear is 10-20 knots over the storm. This shear, combined with the rather large and poorly-organized circulation, will not allow much intensification, and Gabrielle will have a tough time becoming stronger than a 55-mph storm at landfall.


Figure 1. Latest IR satellite image of Gabrielle.

I'll have a new blog Saturday morning by 9:30am.

Jeff Masters

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485. kewwestcanes
4:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Anyone notice a spin near 86.92/23.35, might just be me. looks like something trying to develope
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
484. boobless
1:41 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
edit-addition in bold.
The wave just E of the Greater Antilles seems to be the same feature that was near the center of a dry, dusty swirl at 15N 55W a couple of days ago. You can still see this broad S-shaped swirl on wv imagery. It looks more like a "normal" wave and would place the wave axis @ 20N 60W.
98l or not-closer to home right now
483. fldude99
1:34 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
osted By: hurricane23 at 1:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.
There are no signs of the CV season ending at all lol with 2 waves out in the region with potential for development.The wave at 22N should be watched closely for signs of tropical cyclone development.


I don't buy it..shear, troughs..it's all over but the shouting for CV season.
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
482. TerraNova
1:29 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
new blog
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
481. hurricane23
1:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

I agree about the "blues" but they are also located where the high is weakening. Recurvature time is setting in.

Recurvature time...Are you kidding me there is no such thing as that as it all depends on what features are place when a tropical cyclone is approaching.We are in the peak of the season and its fair to expect things to really ramp in the coming weeks with a nina trying to intensify.Overall i can name you 2 dozen tropical cyclones in a matter of minutes that have impacted the united states in the month of september.I expect things will be busy into late october.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
480. extreme236
1:25 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
ADT calls gabrielle a TS (maybe it doesnt show subs so it just makes them TS's). it gives gabby a 3.0 dvorak rating (45kts)
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
479. kmanislander
1:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Well I have to get ready for a trip out of town tomorrow for two weeks so PLEASE keep everything away from the NW Caribbean while I am gone !

BBL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
478. StormJunkie
1:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Dr M's new blog
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
477. extreme236
1:20 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

I agree about the "blues" but they are also located where the high is weakening. Recurvature time is setting in


Which means this will be the time where we might see a few cat 3's form out in the sea and spin off...fun watching ahead
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
476. extreme236
1:18 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: TerraNova at 1:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Tropical?

08/1145 UTC 31.1N 73.8W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE -- Atlantic Ocean


Thats the SAB dvorak rating...I read this morning that the TAFB dvorak rating was ST2.5, so it would interesting to see what the tafb one shows
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
475. kmanislander
1:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
I agree about the "blues" but they are also located where the high is weakening. Recurvature time is setting in
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
474. nickmini
1:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
thanks hurricane23
473. TerraNova
1:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Tropical?

08/1145 UTC 31.1N 73.8W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE -- Atlantic Ocean
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
472. hurricane23
1:18 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Look at all the blues on your map all the way to the florida coast.Thats what is waiting for old 98L.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
471. kmanislander
1:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Well we have lots of time to watch what happens out there for sure
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
470. nickmini
1:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
I like the shear map
469. extreme236
1:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
the wave only has to move a couple degrees west and its back in 5-10kt shear
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
468. extreme236
1:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Shear has been increasing just W of the CV islands.


But at its present rate of movement, it wont be in those conditions very long, conditions east and NE of the antilles are favorable for development
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
467. hurricane23
1:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: nickmini at 1:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:56 AM EST on September 08, 2007.
Old 98L might become an invest once again if convection can persist during the next few days.

where is invest 98 now?

Its east of the islands located around 22N.Covection has been increaseing with the wave over the past 6-12hrs.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
466. kmanislander
1:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
H23

I have never placed much confidence in those maps
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465. kmanislander
1:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Shear has been increasing just W of the CV islands.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
464. nickmini
1:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:56 AM EST on September 08, 2007.
Old 98L might become an invest once again if convection can persist during the next few days.


where is invest 98 now?
463. StormJunkie
1:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
sjm, right now it looks like a brush of the OBX and out to sea, but small moves make big differences in this type of approach. A 30 or 40 miles jog puts in Myb as opposed to the OBX.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
462. hurricane23
1:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Nothing but REDS all over the place across the basin.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
460. extreme236
1:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: mit5000 at 1:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

how long till the next advsiory?


about an hour and half until 10:45, which is usually when the next advisory is issued
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
458. mit5000
1:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
how long till the next advsiory?
457. extreme236
1:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

There may be waves out in the Atl but the conditions become increasingly hostile the further W they go.


True, but they will most likely recurve at this time, so they wont really encounter those hostile conditions if they go north in time
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
456. hurricane23
1:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

There may be waves out in the Atl but the conditions become increasingly hostile the further W they go.

Upper level winds look decent for the wave at 22n.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
455. kmanislander
1:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
There may be waves out in the Atl but the conditions become increasingly hostile the further W they go.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
454. extreme236
1:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 1:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

actually, this is about time when the CV season ends, not really too early for an end

Really? I thought it just started... a few weeks sounds far too short... or do you mean in terms of CV storms not being able to easily make it across without recurving?


Well, I thought I read somewhere that the CV season ended in mid september or so, not sure if it was true or not though...but likely at this point they would all recurve anyway
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
453. FitzRoy
1:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Big thanks to nolesjeff and MichaelSTL. Just when I thought I was starting to get to grips with the topic lol!
452. stormyjm
1:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: stormyjm at 1:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Does anyone think that Gabby could equal an Ernesto? What part of NC/SC should we expect to see landfall??

Huh???
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451. hurricane23
1:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
There are no signs of the CV season ending at all lol with 2 waves out in the region with potential for development.The wave at 22N should be watched closely for signs of tropical cyclone development.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
450. boobless
1:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Good Morning.
Congratulations to all who called Gabby like they saw it, persevered and prevailed. Congratulations to the leader of the pack-even when the "pack" was not always loyal and true.
Quite the learning experience here-on many levels.
Thanks for the ride.
449. CJ5
1:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
16/53 should be watched. It is possible for further development and it could be our next invest. It was just about completely dead at 3:00 yesterday with nearly all convection dead. I was very suprized to see it back this am with clearly some cyclonic turning.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
447. TheStormWillSurvive
1:03 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
RECON is supposed to be in at 9 AM does anyone know where they are
445. nolesjeff
1:02 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: FitzRoy at 12:53 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Hi SETXHchaser, I think JP was first in line for the naming lol!

Can anyone explain what I'm meant to see in IKE's GOM buoy post. I thought it would be showing low pressure, but surely 29.93" is 1013mb and standard SL pressure? I'm confused.

Thanks


Buoy 42003 is showing 29.89 this morning. It had been dropping since yesterday morning.It has risen from 29.88 this morning. The gulf SST's are very high and those T-storms have been sitting there since wednesday. I think an area to keep an eye on since very close.
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
444. StormJunkie
1:02 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Morning all

I see the models are all pretty much agreeing on the OBX brush and then out to sea this morning. Also real nice to be able to see Gabby's center. Makes it a lot easier to tell what state she is in.

SW, got a question for you, and a I guess because I'm in Charleston, this will seem like a wish-cast question...Just trying to under stand what is happening with the steering that has been so confusing for the past few days....Anyway

That trough seemed to make good progress across Ten yesterday, but it seems to have slowed considerably today?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
443. extreme236
1:01 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
actually, this is about time when the CV season ends, not really too early for an end
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
442. seminolesfan
1:01 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
It looks like Gabbies low level circ is starting to tighten up a bit and the moisture envelope is beginning to fill in the south and west quads.
We should see some additional organization throughout the day.

Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
441. Cavin Rawlins
1:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
I hope thje GFS is right about track...dont really need no more deans and felixes.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
440. kmanislander
1:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Shear is very high in the Caribbean now and the troughs are starting to set up E of the islands. The CV season may be winding down early.

It looks like anything forming out in the Atl will probably go N of the islands through the weakness there unless a big high builds back in

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
439. stormyjm
1:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Does anyone think that Gabby could equal an Ernesto? What part of NC/SC should we expect to see landfall??
438. nickmini
1:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:56 AM EST on September 08, 2007.
Old 98L might become an invest once again if convection can persist during the next few days.


where is invest 98 now?
437. fldude99
12:59 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: Neponset at 12:45 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.
G35Wayne
Still stacked up in garage - lets hope it stay there for the rest of this season - Charleston


I second that motion..another 3 wks and we can pretty much tune the weather out
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
436. strangesights
12:59 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
African wave looks strong coming off the continent. Possible landfall and development are of course still unknowns. Something to watch though with the potential of many possible landfalls other than whereever any one of us might live.
435. extreme236
12:59 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: CJ5 at 12:58 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Mornin all.

I am one who said 99l was dead, I believe we need to look deep into the rule book to determine how wrong I was....being a subtropical storm is not a TS...I think its a draw. lol


lol, but it did develop though lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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