Carolinas disturbance struggling with two centers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 AM GMT on September 08, 2007

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The area of disturbed weather (99L) moving towards the North Carolina/South Carolina coast is trying to get more organized, but has developed a split personality. With a west and an east circulation center just a few hundred miles apart (Figure 1), the two areas of disturbed weather are competing, and neither appears able to gain the upper hand. 99L cannot become a tropical depression until one center becomes dominant. As a result, the prospects for 99L making landfall as a strong tropical storm are growing increasingly dim, and it now appears that a 55-mph tropical storm will be the strongest system that will have time to form. The timing of landfall is problematic, since it is not clear which center will end up winning. Wind shear is higher over the western center (20 knots) than the eastern center (10 knots), so this may favor the eastern center winning out. The western center's thunderstorms should begin affecting the South Carolina/North Carolina coast Saturday night, and the the eastern center will begin affecting this region Sunday morning. Top winds found by the latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft around 7pm EDT were approximately 30 mph at the surface.


Figure 1. Satellite image of 99L showing the east and west centers competing to be boss. Whose side will the blob of thunderstorms in the middle choose?

I'll have a full analysis Saturday morning by 9:30am.

Jeff Masters

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151. guygee
4:07 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Shortest. Blog. Ever.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
150. truecajun
3:58 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
The traffic is INSANE and it's at almost ALL times of the day. Most places just deal with 8 and 5 traffic. Not here, it's all day! It really changes your quality of life. Anyhow, i have to just learn to accept it.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
149. Dodabear
3:55 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
HEY GUYS..... THE GOOD DOCTOR HAS UPDATED WITH A NEW BLOG AT 11:11 PM. EVERYONE IS ON THE NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
148. hurricanehanna
3:53 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Small world. Yeah, Broussard is a neat little town too. Growing, but still has a small town feel to it. Baton Rouge is way too busy for me. So many New Orleanians relocated there - traffic is really bad now.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3487
147. truecajun
3:50 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Neat! We just moved from Broussard to Brusly. I miss Broussard so much. I'm a small town girl at heart. The traffic and hustle and bustle of Baton Rouge still stresses me out. Brusly is nice, but we still have to go into Baton Rouge for work, school, shopping etc.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
146. hurricanehanna
3:47 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
I'm in Lafayette. I remember Andrew. We were lucky - you guys weren't. I do remember Lily. Anyting in the GOM makes me nervous. Brusly is a nice place.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3487
145. truecajun
3:45 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
I'm from New Iberia (was there when Andrew's eye made landfall) We just moved to Brusly, La (southwest of Baton Rouge). We're pretty safe here, but living less than a mile from the Missippi river frightens me.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
144. truecajun
3:40 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Boobless, what are they hinting around at in the discussion you posted? Also, what's a ULL?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
143. hurricanehanna
3:40 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
truecajun, what part of LA are you residing?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3487
142. fldoughboy
3:37 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Ok, Point taken, SSI. For the time being it is moving due west (just about).
140. fldoughboy
3:34 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
I guess the weather people are wrong then as my math is..350 miles from North Carolina, moving at 10 mph..I believe that's 35 hours.
139. boobless
3:33 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Also from the 805EDT (late)TWD:
DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N87W 22N84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF W CUBA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 84W-90W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 90W-95W. FURTHER
S...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
88W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR 33N97W PRODUCING NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREAS
OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

136. fldoughboy
3:30 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
It has 30-36 hours left before landfall. Watches/Warnings are up right now.
135. stormybil
3:29 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
yeah taz a sts this time of the season taz are you sure the blob by the bahaams is a ull it looks like its getting larger
134. fldoughboy
3:27 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
It's scheduled to make landfall Sun AM.
132. fldoughboy
3:25 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Man-Yi was a Cat 5 storm that hit Okinawa..The youtube vids were quite interesting.
131. fldoughboy
3:23 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Gabby will be a distant memory by Sunday, Danas will be out there for awhile longer.
129. guygee
3:22 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Posted By: KoritheMan at 3:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
"guygee, well the only thing we really can do is build stronger buildings, and stop building so close to the coast, but people won't do that. There's nothing that can be done to stop these things from coming. Either way though, with advanced warnings, if people HEED them, there would be a lot less death and destruction."

No disagreement with that KoritheMan. Although some of the older houses built 30-40 years ago around here used to be much further from the beach than they are now.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
128. truecajun
3:22 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
When did they name these? As of last night I thought 99L was bust.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
125. boobless
3:20 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Oh yeah,
Good call and graphics on the split, guygee.
Must have a hot line to Dr. M :]
124. KoritheMan
3:20 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
two landfalling cat 5's already and here comes another capeverde wave....NOT LOOKIN GOOD FOLKS. and the deeper we get into sept/october the more these cold fronts come through and the U.S. is bullseye. but also more chance of fish storms i suppose

Yeah, it's 50/50. Chance for fish storms, chance for U.S. strikes. This season is NOT over by a longshot.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
123. KoritheMan
3:19 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
I also agree, especially because what the last two storms to develop from tropical waves did (not saying that we will have another Dean or Felix).

Well STL, it would not surprise me if we DID have another Dean or Felix. Not saying we will either, but 2007 is beginning to look like 1955, at least in terms of retired names. Gabrielle probably won't be retired unless something drastic happens, but Humberto, if it develops from the CV wave, has a chance to be, IMO. As you know STL, Cape Verde storms are almost always very powerful and long-lasting. If we were to get another major hurricane within the next week or so, I think it would be from this.

Danas and Gabrielle?? what are y'all talking about?

Danas is a West Pacific tropical storm, Gabrielle is an Atlantic subtropical storm.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
122. wederwatcher555
3:18 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
two landfalling cat 5's already and here comes another capeverde wave....NOT LOOKIN GOOD FOLKS. and the deeper we get into sept/october the more these cold fronts come through and the U.S. is bullseye. but also more chance of fish storms i suppose
121. KoritheMan
3:17 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Does anyone(old enough) ever remember a situation where you had US watches/warnings posted.....and no discussion. ????
They are uncertain. But considering the proximity to the coast the NHC had to do something. It would look bad if a storm originating in the waters at this time oof year caused any level of signifigant flooding, winds, etc., and no watch was ever posted.


Nope, I never remember this happening.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
120. truecajun
3:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Danas and Gabrielle?? what are y'all talking about?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
118. KoritheMan
3:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
guygee, well the only thing we really can do is build stronger buildings, and stop building so close to the coast, but people won't do that. There's nothing that can be done to stop these things from coming. Either way though, with advanced warnings, if people HEED them, there would be a lot less death and destruction.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
117. CosmicEvents
3:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Does anyone(old enough) ever remember a situation where you had US watches/warnings posted.....and no discussion. ????
They are uncertain. But considering the proximity to the coast the NHC had to do something. It would look bad if a storm originating in the waters at this time oof year caused any level of signifigant flooding, winds, etc., and no watch was ever posted.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5582
116. stormybil
3:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
is anyone chcking out the red blob by nassau in the bahamas .yet could it form too
115. KoritheMan
3:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Kori is right, and West Pacific storms usually have huge amounts of convection, either when compared with Danas or most Atlantic storms, due to the environment:

THANK YOU, STL. Thank you.

I do agree that Gabby has a less well-defined circulation than Danas, but deeper convection.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
114. guygee
3:14 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
I do not think it is an exaggeration to say "deadly and destructive", because property gets destroyed and people do die. KoritheMan, you are like all "that guy shouldn't have been standing under the tree when it fell". Well, it may be dumb, it may be bad luck, but people stand under trees during storms

People will be in boats, out swimming, surfing, etc.

Unless the beach has been recently renourished, houses will fall into the ocean, along with walkways and public park infrastructure.

Yeah, "deadly and destructive" sums it up nicely...not like I am saying catastrophic or apocalyptic
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
113. KoritheMan
3:14 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Well actually the Cape Verde wave could eventually be something really nasty. Gabrielle probably will not.

Agreed. I have been watching this wave for about 36 hours now. I think 90L by tommmorow.

Folks, get ready, the heart of hurricane season is here. We knew the season was not going to be another 2006, and it was ridiculous for people (including myself) to think it had a chance to be that way.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
112. fldoughboy
3:13 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Danas is wrapped around..Gabby isn't..Thanks for the pic comparisons.
111. fldoughboy
3:12 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Danas has a lot more water to go thru to get bigger..Gabrielle will peak out to maybe 70 mph. The West Pac is known for its typhoons..and the room it has to grow.
109. boobless
3:12 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
thanks, BtnTx-Ill put the gas masks back in the closet.
107. Tazmanian
3:10 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
from TWC on the CV wave

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, an area of tropical low pressure has emerged off of Africa, and is now drifting west into the eastern Atlantic. Some slow organization of this low will be possible over the next several days
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
106. fldoughboy
3:09 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Gabby has no wrap around feature, in my book, that's poorly defined. Let's wait till tomorrow.
105. HurricaneMyles
3:10 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Danas has a much better defined circulation, even if they cloud tops aren't very cold.

BTW, NHC says there's one center at 30.4N 72.2W.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
104. BtnTx
3:10 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
boobless - no booms here all eve
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 890
102. KoritheMan
3:08 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Danas looks worse then Gabby no question

Thank you, jp. :)

Good night, StormW. Hope you get your modem fixed. I know what that's like.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
101. KoritheMan
3:08 AM GMT on September 08, 2007
Danas looks more developed than Gabrielle at this time, esp when Gabby has 2 centers. I've seen worse classified TS's in different sizes.

Danas doesn't even have anything but yellow convection on satellite. That's hardly even deep. At least Gabby has some sort of red convection somewhere.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.