New Orleans to Pensacola at high risk from Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2005

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The Hurricane Hunters measured a central pressure of 949 mb at 11:14am EDT, up from the cental pressure of 941 mb measured at 7:07am EDT. Concentric eyewalls with diameters of 13 and 40 nm were reported, satellite images show that the eye has filled in with clouds and the cloud top temperatures have warmed. These observations indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun. This was expected, since the 7:07am Hurricane Huneter report indicated that the eye diameter had shrunk to 9 nm, about the smallest diameter one gets before an eyewall replacement cycle begins.

The maximum winds may fall below 115 mph while Katrina undergoes this eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall collapses and a new outer eyewall forms. This would make Katrina a strong Category 2 storm, and indeed the maximum winds seen so far by the Hurricane Hunters were only 87 knots (100 mph) at 10,000 feet. This is a temporary affliction, since Katrina is in nearly ideal conditions for strengthening, and is expected to reach Category 4 status by Sunday. The convection and outflow are starting to look better on the north side of the hurricane, and Katrina should have a more symmetrical shape typical of Category 4 hurricanes by Sunday. As seen in the cumulative wind image below, Katrina has increased markedly in size the past 12 hours, and will deliver a widespread damaging blow wherever she comes ashore.



The favorable intensification conditions for Katrina are expected to last up until landfall, when some increase in shear may occur. Intensification forecasts are highly unreliable, though, and it would be no surprise if Katrina were a Category 2, 3, or 4 landfall. The track forecast is getting more believable, as Katrina's westerly motion shows that it has begun it recurvature, pretty much where NHC and the models were predicting. A landfall between New Orleans and Pensacola is on track for Monday morning or afternoon. I expect a Category 3 storm at landfall.

I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastrophic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evacuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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831. IKE
10:23 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Panama City shouldn't take a direct hit...just fringe effects...pending the track doesn't change...which doesn't seem likely.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
830. fredbeagle
5:21 PM EST on August 27, 2005
hello, i've been following this for a day or so and first post. sorry to say it has to be about jerks like catchaser. even if youre right about msy, which i dont belive, how would you feel if you were them? and what if youre wrong? languagea isnt allowed for heartless opportunists like you.
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829. Katrina3
10:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
***cjnew***
I'm in PC too. Most of these guys are say a direct hit on NO. I have a funny feeling it's gonna head more north and come closer to us. Just my opinion
Kat
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827. leftyy420
10:23 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
the eye is starting to clear. in a hr or so u will see a msaaive 40nm wide eye
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826. leftyy420
10:21 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
yeah but the problem is he can't go to no. it would be to unsafe. thats why he is where he is. and if u r in the cone or under a hurricane weatch prepare for the worst. do not wait to the last minute. prepare now and pary u don't need to leave or anything
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825. AySz88
6:19 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
People don't seem to realize that there are people who don't have a spare $25k in a bank account to spend on a helicopter, or are signing on from apartments with 6-yo computers and 20K connections.
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824. ELLSSUU
10:17 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thanks WSSGSR.

For those in the area, the news is stating that I12 is flowing fairly well considering. Contra flow began at 4pm. I don't know yet if Mississippi is joining Louisiana with the original contraflow plan.

Per the site that WSSGSR posted my house is in the "severe" area being just north of the lake. The newscast puts the eye just west of Mandeville. Ofcourse a little jog to the west puts the homestead in the middle. Here's hoping to strong pine trees, roof, and garage door.

Mayor Nagin said that the Superdome will open soon and a voluntary evacuation of the city is in effect as of 5:15. A little late if you ask me but then again the whole city was surprised by this event.
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823. USAmet
10:21 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
just let it go lefty, you cant change people and the more upset you get the better they fell
822. bobaloo04
10:21 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Leftyy>>>>worlds smallest violin
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821. leftyy420
10:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
i can't even belive some of you. u all go to hell and i amsorry i am cussing but this is no joke. people will die people already have. is that not enough to make u realise that life is preciuse and that some people have nowhere to go, no way out nothing. and yet u come in here and all u do is wish for death and destruction. u make me sick
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818. FLPhil
10:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
If the worst case senario does happen Katrina could not only become the costliest storm (Andrew) but possibly the deadliest(Galveston Texas Hurricane)... of course that would mean alot of people would have to stay in w/the storm making a direct hit.

It seems like thats a big could but it is still a possibility.
817. cjnew
5:19 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
*****hey guys im in panama city fl.....should i prepare for a direct hit still or just that it could get closer? seems like the furthest east at this point would be p'cola****** if you cant find the time to answer thats fine...sorry if im interrupting the great pointles convo
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816. TampaSteve
6:17 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
KShurricane: The Superdome is on high ground and the inside level where the evacuees will be housed is at least 35 feet off the ground. The dome can withstand 200+ MPH winds no problem. It is safe...probably the safest structure in NO.
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815. bobaloo04
10:18 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Yep definately whirlwind and leftyy fell for it..oh well..lol..
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814. SouthernLady
10:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Lefty, my 21 year old son has cerebal palsey, epilepsy, and is mildly retarded...He loves keeping up with the weather, his nickname is 'WeathermanDave' hehe...I told him last night to wait and see where Jim Cantore was this morning, that's where it will hit. (joking) He woke me up screaming "Oh My God he's in Biloxi, Ms!!! hehe
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813. AySz88
6:13 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
Again, getting advice from other people is a perfectly acceptable way to figure out what the hell you're gonna do if you're caught off guard. The fastest way to do *that*, that I can think of, is to get to the first hurricane message board you can find and get as much advice as possible.

I think MSY's gone now, anyway, and not wasting time talking to you guys.
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811. geauxtigers
10:18 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
how do you guys think baton rouge will be affected by this thing??
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810. whirlwind
10:17 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
MSY is fake. could be anyne looking for fun.

why would anyone pay 25K for you? are you a supermodel or pornstar?? or something???
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809. leftyy420
10:17 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
lookmsy just ignore them. i will be here for you and anyone else who wants some support durring this dark time
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808. MSY68
10:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
ok thats it...ill fare for myself..hope your happy...thanks for all your help lefty...but i cant listen to this garbage anymore...i was just looking for some moral support during a very scary time...
807. USAmet
10:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
hey guys this is a hurricane board... im here to read about what others think of Katrina yet some of you make it stupid to come here... for the most part I enjoy reading somepeople even stormtop but cmon
806. stmarylalady
10:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
msy, you are in my thoughts. I have family in Chalmette, they are suppose to be leaving for their son's place in N MS sometime this evening. I hope they don't get caught in traffic.

I'm on the western edge of the watch area. We are staying too. Kinda hard to stick 2 adults and 4 kids in a baby truck. LOL. I wish you luck.
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805. KShurricane
10:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
From what I'm hearing, the Superdome is going to be a major refuge site. If we do get a lake there how deep will it be in that area? Even if the structure holds together, the place might get flooded out.
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804. wxgssr
9:53 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/mapserv.exe?mode=browse&zoom=-3&layer=county&layer=track&layer=simtrack&layer=damage&imgxy=299.5+299.5&imgext=-93.133690+26.802000+-85.779190+34.152000&map=..%2Fhurapak%2FAAL122005.map&savequery=true

Damage estimates based on storm track. Very cool tool. It updates the plot as each new Official forecast track comes out. I am now even deeper into the bright red severe zone. Yay.
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803. leftyy420
10:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
i will be on alsmost every hour till its over
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802. TampaSteve
6:12 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
So far, every TD this season has developed into a named storm...well, technically TD #10 didn't, but it weakened and re-strengthened into TD #12, which is now Katrina...
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800. leftyy420
10:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
i am sorry if i was raised to belive in the human spirit and would do all i could forsome one in this situiation and not question there honesty cause i could see myself in this situation. thats why i am not questioning msy. cause even if she was lying she is the example of the 60,000 people who will not be able to get out period
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798. MSY68
10:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Hey Lefy...im off for while..gonna bring some supplies over...will u be on later?
797. LoneGunman
10:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
"cat", you talk about honesty, are you honest with the people you visit who lost everything? Do you tell them you are glad it hit there? I'd think not, probably get your ass kicked a few times a day.
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796. CosmicEvents
10:08 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
MSY....why don't you give it a try at least on the message boards on the local TV and newspaper sites. I'm POSITIVE someone would pay 25k to get out of town quickly, easily, and now. Something is very fishy here meethinks. Might we be dealing with yet another pseudonym created by that ONE lonely sad individual. I hope I'm wrong. Too many kind souls have invested their time, prayers, and thoughts to MSY. Including me. Maybe you should call up leftyy on his private phone line and ask his opinion.
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795. ELLSSUU
10:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
BTW, WWL lost their best weatherman to the Hurricane Center and thus the reason their not as good as they used to be.
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793. bobaloo04
10:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
yeah i am on last night and MSY is on talking. Everytime i log on MSY is here..lol..I am still wondering where the preparation is..lol..
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792. ELLSSUU
10:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Anyone have a link for storm surge north of Lake Ponchartrain. Trying to decide the danger to my house in Mandeville. It's located 1-2 miles north of the lakeshore.
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791. cjnew
5:11 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
hey guys im in panama city fl.....should i prepare for a direct hit still or just that it could get closer? seems like the furthest east at this point would be p'cola
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790. FLPhil
10:08 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Not to detract from the serious situation at hand concerning Katrina but did anybody read the 5:30 EDT Tropical Weather Outlook? Looks like 90L will become TD#13 soon.
What an amazing season it has been thus far with respect towards the number of storms.
789. leftyy420
10:09 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
good southernlady glad to hear it. u do have alot more time be thankfull for that


canotre just said this storm will be the worst storm to hit the gulf coast since camile. thas from a trained meterolgist who has seen many hurricanes. that statement alone hold so much weight. i think we will all appreciate mother nature more come monday
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788. Katrina3
10:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I can't evac even if it was a direct hit on Panama City. I have a 2 kids a husband layed up with a broken back and 2 dogs. We won't go to a shelter and sleep with the unwashed masses and get scabies and lice like the last time we went.
We were prepared yesterday. Boarded up, lots of water, batteries, canned food, extra meds for hubby, oil lambs a grill and lots of charcoal, gased up last night when all the stations were running out (got the last bit of reg unleaded in town!).
We are as redy as we will ever be for any storm.
Kat
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786. MSY68
10:10 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I WIIL DO JUST THAT,,,thanks
785. IKE
10:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Pensacola isn't out of the woods. I'm over here in Defuniak Springs and we'll still feel some affects from Katrina. Keep an eye on her...no pun intended.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
784. MSY68
10:09 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I did notice CAT that you havent yet offered to cough up the 25K you said should be so easy for me to raise?? CAT GOT YOUR TONGUE????
783. EZMonster
10:08 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
That STORMTOP msg was really priceless though, the bit about EXPERIENCING ITS WILD FURY ON MY FACE or something like that
782. AySz88
6:07 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
MSY, my suggestion would be to ignore them, don't bother defending yourself, and just go and do your plan now. Your safety's a lot more important than wasting time talking to these guys.
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781. bobaloo04
10:08 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Yeah Cat alot of computer amateurs on here. They believe everything they read..oh well...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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