New Orleans to Pensacola at high risk from Katrina
The Hurricane Hunters measured a central pressure of 949 mb at 11:14am EDT, up from the cental pressure of 941 mb measured at 7:07am EDT. Concentric eyewalls with diameters of 13 and 40 nm were reported, satellite images show that the eye has filled in with clouds and the cloud top temperatures have warmed. These observations indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun. This was expected, since the 7:07am Hurricane Huneter report indicated that the eye diameter had shrunk to 9 nm, about the smallest diameter one gets before an eyewall replacement cycle begins.
The maximum winds may fall below 115 mph while Katrina undergoes this eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall collapses and a new outer eyewall forms. This would make Katrina a strong Category 2 storm, and indeed the maximum winds seen so far by the Hurricane Hunters were only 87 knots (100 mph) at 10,000 feet. This is a temporary affliction, since Katrina is in nearly ideal conditions for strengthening, and is expected to reach Category 4 status by Sunday. The convection and outflow are starting to look better on the north side of the hurricane, and Katrina should have a more symmetrical shape typical of Category 4 hurricanes by Sunday. As seen in the cumulative wind image below, Katrina has increased markedly in size the past 12 hours, and will deliver a widespread damaging blow wherever she comes ashore.
The favorable intensification conditions for Katrina are expected to last up until landfall, when some increase in shear may occur. Intensification forecasts are highly unreliable, though, and it would be no surprise if Katrina were a Category 2, 3, or 4 landfall. The track forecast is getting more believable, as Katrina's westerly motion shows that it has begun it recurvature, pretty much where NHC and the models were predicting. A landfall between New Orleans and Pensacola is on track for Monday morning or afternoon. I expect a Category 3 storm at landfall.
I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastrophic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evacuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars.
Dr. Jeff Masters
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I grew up in the New Orleans area, and lived through Betsy and Camille. I'm very thankful I don't live there any more.
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Hurricane Katrina - Advisory 19
Issued: 08:29 PM CDT Saturday August 27, 2005
At 9PM CDT, Hurricane Katrina will be near 24.0N/86.1W, or about 365 miles southeast of New Orleans, LA. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 115 mph. Movement is to the west-northwest at 7 mph. Minimum pressure was recently measured by recon at 942 millibars or 27.82 inches.
Our forecast remains unchanged for the most part. We've indicated a very gentle turn to the west-northwest over the next 6-12 hours, followed by a northwesterly turn on Sunday morning as high pressure to the north of the hurricane weakens. Confidence in the general track remains good, but until Katrina is moving to the northwest and north-northwest on Sunday afternoon, we won't really be too certain of the exact point of landfall. Latest model guidance remains fixed on southeast Louisiana. Some of the better models take the center right over New Orleans on Monday afternoon.
Concerning Katrina's intensity, the hurricane began an eyewall replacement cycle earlier today. The old, small inner eye has fallen apart, while the new, larger eye has begun to slowly contract. As it does so, surface winds should increase significantly. By sunrise on Sunday, we think that Katrina will have intensified to a strong Category 3 or a minimal Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130-135 mph. Katrina will pass over a pool of very warm water on Sunday, at which time it could reach near Category 5 strength of 150 mph. We do expect that Katrina will weaken a little prior to landfall, but it will likely be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall with 135-145 mph wind.
Katrina could produce a storm surge of 12-16 feet near the mouth of the Mississippi River as it moves ashore. However, this surge could increase to 17-20 feet across southeast Louisiana, including the Greater New Orleans, area as the center moves by on Monday afternoon.
The next commentary and forecast track will be issued near 3AM CDT.
George Harvey
it's not an easy decision to make
Let's say you do manage to pick up and get out the way of a storm that destroys the city...then what? Your hotel reservations may only cover a week or so at most, assuming you could even get them in time. When they run out, where do you go? Not everyone has friends or family elsewhere to stay with. For many people, getting out of the way will do no good if they have nowhere to go home to. Being stuck in another state when your home and possibly place of employment is destroyed and no fixed residence is a scary thought. Others have family who, for some reason or another, can't leave and whom they wouldn't dream of abandoning. I agree staying in the city at this point is almost suicide, but for some, there's not much alternative.
We shouldn't assume that everyone who's riding this out is naive, or lazy, or just plain stupid. For some of us, it's simply a matter of having resigned ourselves to fate and leaving it to nature's devices. Call it stoicism if you're going to call it anything.
they have an ongoing LIVE link...been going since 4pm
Dr. Jeff Masters
I'm not saying people SHOULD stay, by any means. I'm just saying the people who are chosing to ride it out didn't do so out of laziness or ignorance. Truly a sad situation for everyone involved, and my prayers go out to them and to anyone in the Grand Isle and Cocodrie/Robinson Canal areas if this thing shifts a little more west.
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