New Orleans to Pensacola at high risk from Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2005

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The Hurricane Hunters measured a central pressure of 949 mb at 11:14am EDT, up from the cental pressure of 941 mb measured at 7:07am EDT. Concentric eyewalls with diameters of 13 and 40 nm were reported, satellite images show that the eye has filled in with clouds and the cloud top temperatures have warmed. These observations indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun. This was expected, since the 7:07am Hurricane Huneter report indicated that the eye diameter had shrunk to 9 nm, about the smallest diameter one gets before an eyewall replacement cycle begins.

The maximum winds may fall below 115 mph while Katrina undergoes this eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall collapses and a new outer eyewall forms. This would make Katrina a strong Category 2 storm, and indeed the maximum winds seen so far by the Hurricane Hunters were only 87 knots (100 mph) at 10,000 feet. This is a temporary affliction, since Katrina is in nearly ideal conditions for strengthening, and is expected to reach Category 4 status by Sunday. The convection and outflow are starting to look better on the north side of the hurricane, and Katrina should have a more symmetrical shape typical of Category 4 hurricanes by Sunday. As seen in the cumulative wind image below, Katrina has increased markedly in size the past 12 hours, and will deliver a widespread damaging blow wherever she comes ashore.



The favorable intensification conditions for Katrina are expected to last up until landfall, when some increase in shear may occur. Intensification forecasts are highly unreliable, though, and it would be no surprise if Katrina were a Category 2, 3, or 4 landfall. The track forecast is getting more believable, as Katrina's westerly motion shows that it has begun it recurvature, pretty much where NHC and the models were predicting. A landfall between New Orleans and Pensacola is on track for Monday morning or afternoon. I expect a Category 3 storm at landfall.

I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastrophic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evacuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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1131. SouthernLady
1:11 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Thanks Jax...we have the squirrel taken care of as much as can be...Now back to Katrina, sorry guys, got a soft heart...
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1130. JaxAdjuster
1:10 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
WOW! 86 miles away and wind and waves like that. Wherever this thing hits will have a tough go of it.
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1129. Joshfsu123
1:00 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Yes, Katrina is still to the North/Right of the forecast points, by a good bit actually. It would have to move due west for an hour or two for it to get back on line.

Here in Tallahassee, the NWS has updated our Monday forecast from Heavy Rain to Heavy Rain, Thunder, and Wind.

I didn't think I would say this but I agree with StormTop. I think this system will move to the east of New Orleans and probably make landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border.

More importantly the 00Z model runs should have new atmosphere data from the afternoon and those runs may give us a more accurate picture of whether or not New Orleans should really be worried or if it will go to their east. As the TROF continues to dig, it should turn North tomorrow.
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1128. SouthernLady
1:09 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Jax..as far as I know nexrad is your best bet, just remember it can't look al the way 'through' the eye, so even if it looks whopsided...it may not be...
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1127. IKE
1:08 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
The buoy 260 miles south of Panama City has a 65 mph east wind with waves at THIRTY-ONE FEET! More beach erosion! Dammit!
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1126. JaxAdjuster
1:08 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
SL, get some powdered milk from a farmers supply store. Regular milk will do OK in a pinch but it doesn't have the fat content the squirrel will need.
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1125. boiredfish
1:08 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
still not north of 25?????
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 442
1124. EZMonster
1:02 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
That buoy I sent the plot for earlier is now about 86 nm from the storm center and is recording 30.5 ft waves. Over hurricane-force gusts (and again this is 86 nautical miles away)
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1123. JaxAdjuster
1:03 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Is there anyway to see if an eye develops after dark? The satelite photos I was looking at are, obviously, no longer useful.
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1122. leftyy420
1:05 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
lol yeah southern that sounds better than some cows milk

i think i amgoing to try to catch a nap so i will be good for tonight. be back sooner if anything changes. catch yall in a bit
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1121. turtlehurricane
1:03 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
im bac, i hav a damage report and a small tropical update in my blog. as promised i will soon have a katrina update for the gulf coast in my blog.
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1120. SouthernLady
12:56 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Sorry..slite sideline here...Mom & Dad found a 'tiny' baby sqirrel on the ground, she tried feeding it regular milk, I said no go to Walmart and get the kitten formula. Is that ok?

God I'm so sorry, pm me with answers instead of messing up the thread anymore...
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1119. Hawkeyewx
7:59 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
Yes, the storm is becoming quite large. It seems this evening's drop in pressure has gone toward expanding the storm/windfield instead of tightening up the core.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
1118. westernmob
12:53 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Appears to me it has wobbled a little more NorthWestward on the last few frames to the point of having a more poleward component than the forecast track...anyone seeing the same thing I am? (Select Forecast Track box on link below)

Link
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1117. IKE
12:55 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Good point Hawkeyewx...maybe she won't rev up...big this storm is HUGE!
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1116. leftyy420
12:55 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
well we will see. i have seen some intense hurricanes with a oin wheeel configurration. the supper typhoon earlier this year in the western pacific comes to mind
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1115. leftyy420
12:54 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
thanks for the numbers.


ur welcome we all do what we can

i will be here with you lol. u know i never get off
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1114. Hawkeyewx
7:51 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
To see any big strengthening Katrina will have to get rid of this pinwheel convection it has had all day. Intense hurricanes with surface wind to match have a solid ring of deep convection around a distinct eye, and Katrina clearly has neither.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
1113. stmarylalady
12:32 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Isn't it something? I checked the traffic cams earlier and am amazed at how little traffic there is.

I know I posted this earlier but thought I would again for anyone looking for shelter info for family or friends or themselves.

Shelter Information:
Red Cross- 1(866)-GET-INFO (438-4636)
Emergency Shelter Information Points:
Tourist Welcome Center, US 65 & 84, 1401 Carter St. (US 84), Vidalia, LA
Tourist Welcome Center, TA Truck Stop, Tallulah Exit (Hwy 65 & I 20)
Paragon Casino, 711 Paragon Place, Marksville LA
Sammy's Truck Stop, I-49, Exit 53, 3601 LA 115W, Bunkie, LA
Med Express Office, 7525 US 71, Alexandria, LA

I am at work till 7 in the a.m. so if my phone doesn't ring off the hook, you guys are going to keep me company.
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1112. PcolaGal
12:45 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Y'all give us a lot of helpful information. Thanks.
Sorry for being too long/personal earlier today. Not used to internet discussions.
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1111. tomjonesdaphneAL
12:49 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
distance between AL/MS line and Pcola is about 70 miles we are sitting here waiting on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay... hoping it stays west
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1110. leftyy420
12:50 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
hwakeye i think once she gets her eye together we will see a drmatic drop in pressure and her winds will finally get caught up. she will proly be close to a cat 5 by morning
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1109. leftyy420
12:48 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
she is pretty much on the forcast track. i still have high confidence she will hit no or just to the east. unless she turns n any time soon and i don't see that happening
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1108. AySz88
8:44 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
Well yes, but it looks close enough to the track that the wobble brought it right back to the track?
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1107. Hawkeyewx
7:45 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
The latest recon report basically says the pressure is slowly falling, but the core structure has changed little over the last several hours. The eyewall is still ragged and the surface winds are still way behind the pressure.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
1106. leftyy420
12:44 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
lolwhich one there are 2.

the most northern one will likely for in to a cyclone but her life is short. she willbe wisked northward and out to sea

the one south of that looks much better. most models forma signifcant cyclone in 72hrs but around day 4 or 5 she is expected to recurve out to see. we need to watch her though cause she will be headed towards the east coast and the forcasts out past 72hrs are really unreliable at this point
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1105. Hawkeyewx
7:45 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
770
URNT12 KNHC 280034
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/00:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 50 min N
085 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2587 m
D. 45 kt
E. 217 deg 056 nm
F. 285 deg 090 kt
G. 209 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 942 mb
I. 10 C/ 3042 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E12/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 90 KT SW QUAD 23:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19C 320/6NM FROM FL CENTER
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB
RAGGED EYE WALL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
1104. leftyy420
12:43 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
major hurricanes wobble. you can not take every wobble as a movement. she ie generly headed in a wnw motion at the moment
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1103. sewmap
12:41 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Thanks lefty

This has been quite the learning experience for me!! Anybody have any thoughts on the current low pressure area in the atlantic about 1300 miles east of the windwards
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1102. IKE
12:38 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
STORMTOP....I agree with you this time...I think it will go east of New Orleans...how far east is questionable. Looking at an IR of katrina...she is one classic looking storm and I hate to say that for folks sake. That dam storm takes up half of the Gulf of Mexico. I bet her winds increase with the next advisory or by tomorrow morning. For everyone's sake...I hope she weakens.

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1101. AySz88
8:37 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
Um... on the very latest visible frame, it looks like the center shifted SW a little and is back on the track?
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1100. leftyy420
12:38 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
about 100 miles give or take some
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1099. leftyy420
12:35 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
bamm just ran and she shfited nowhere. the new ships calls for 131kts winds at landfall thats 150mph. also remebr there is a 20 kt forcast error. all signs point to a error infavor of a stronger storm.

looks like 140-160mph will be a good bet


rigth now the ships models is forcasting in the midlle of that range at 150mph
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1098. SouthernLady
12:36 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
As if on cue....hehe
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1097. sewmap
12:35 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Does anyone know, as the crow flys, how far it is from the MS/AL border to p-cola? I am in p-cola woring for fema(due to Dennis) and will be here even if it does hit p-cola directly. I was just trying to figure out what kind of ride I'm in for if it hits the probable MS/AL border...
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1096. USAmet
12:36 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
check out the wv floater, put on the lat\long and the prediction points, it is going north of the predicted track right now

Link
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1095. EZMonster
12:33 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Here's a graphical representation of the growth of the wind swath (amazing how it's grown from the same figure earlier today)



Link
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1094. SaymoBEEL
7:32 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
Josh, we are "tracking" about Kats landfall. Looks like between Gulfport and Biloxi to me.
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1093. STORMTOP
11:51 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
STORMTOPS WEATHER SERVICE BULLETIN 1930PM

WE FINALLY ARE LOOKING BETTER IN NEW ORLEANS ..THE LATEST RECON FIX WV AND IR LOOPS INDICATE KATRINA IS MOVING WNW TO NW AT 8MPH...THIS IS GOOD FOR NEW ORLEANS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL HAVE TO SHIFT THE TRACK AT 10PM EAST OF NEW ORLEANS ...NEW ORLEANS WILL MISS THE EYE THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE PART OF THE STORM AND THE MAJOR THREAT SHIFTS TO THE MISS GULF COAST TO GULFPORT...KATRINA IS NOW BEING GRAPED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS OVER TEXAS AND IS NOW INFLUENCING KATRINAS MOVEMENT...IM ISSUING MY HURRICANE WARNINGS FROM THE GRAND ISLE AREA TO PENSECOLA FLORIDA...MY PROJECTED LAND FALL HAS CHANGED TO THE GULFPORT AREA AND THIS WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH DIGS DEEPER...KATRINA IS STRENGTHING AND I WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS APPROACHING 140 MPH BY THE 10 PM ADVISORY...NEW ORLEANS WILL STILL GET HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IF THIS MOVEMENT CONTINUES WILL MISS THE CORE OF THE STORM...THATS THE WORSE PART OF THE STORM...I FEEL FOR THE PEOPLE ON THE GULF COAST IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE REAL DANGER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE GULF COAST AND THE MOBILE AREA WHERE THEY WOULD BE ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CENTER...NEW ORLEANS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL DODGE ANOTHER BULLET AND THAT FINE WITH ME...I CAN TAKE 100MPH WINDS AND 10 INCHES OF RAIN THAT SHOULD BE OUR WORSE WEATHER...EAST OF NEW ORLEANS THE WEATHER WILL BE VERY BAD FOR THE MISS GULF COAST AND MOBILE AND PENSECOLA AREA....GULFPORT TO MOBILE COULD EXPERIENCE CAT 5 WINDS OF 17O MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE NHC WILL SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE EAST OF NEW ORLEANS BECAUSE KATRINA HAS AMPLE TIME TO MAKE THE FULL TURN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST NEAR GULFPORT....HEADS UP PEOPLE ON THE MISS ALABAMA AND NEAR PENSECOLA YOU WILL BE IN THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM AS SHE MOVES ON SHORE SPARING A DIRECT HIT TO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA....I WILL HAVE MORE AT 5AM IN THE MORNING.....THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN FROM THE STORM TOPS NWS 2135PM.................................
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1092. SouthernLady
12:32 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
What happened to Stormtops??? He said he would be back at 5:00est...
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1091. AySz88
8:33 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
(that was a quote from the bulletin, just so you don't think I'm shouting at you)
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1090. AySz88
8:30 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
JaxAdjuster: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER

ErrantlyThought: I wouldn't risk it if I were you. People are still talking about "maybe Cat. 5" with this storm, I'd say they're pretty certain with medium-strong category 4.
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1089. leftyy420
12:31 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
yeah i know right
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1088. FLPhil
12:28 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Joshfsu123 I feel (for what its worth in my amature opinion) that is very likely
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1085. errantlythought
12:20 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Yanno the really disturbing part about all of this? There are still tourists and people walking around burbon street.

http://www.nola.com/bourbocam/

Ive seen several sherrifs drive past slowly, nobody seems to care.
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1084. Joshfsu123
12:09 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
Not quite... Katrina is actually North or to the right of the forecast point at the moment. She did jog Northward earlier as reported by the RECON aircraft.

The most recent motion has been NW, not WNW, but of course a WNW track is suppose to continue tonight into tomorrow. This just makes my prediction of a landfall to the east of New Orleans more likely but the question is how far to the east.

In regards to the models, the 18Z model run of the GFS actually shifted slightly to the east when compared to the 12Z GFS model run. So I do not expect the UKMET to shift back westward. In fact, I think all the models will gradually shift eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama area before this is all said and done.
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1083. tessa
12:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
I just a post that TS winds are out 160 miles and hurricane force are out 45 miles.
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1082. SouthernLady
12:13 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
I'd like to make a point ( cal me a conspiracy theorist, I don't care) We all know that this is the last week ending with the Labor Day weekend of major tourism...We also know that the Almighty Dollar rules...it means more than peoples lives to a lot of sicko's out there...This is why I'm getting my info here instead of mainstream news. It's also why I think Stormtop popped a cork yesterday...He did nail it, and thanks to him a family wedding was successful here today when mos tof the folks were comeing from Bat.Rou. or south of there. I told them, they made preps..brought the pets and extra clothes, and are now having a 'hurricane party' in Jackson, Ms.

Thanks STORMTOPS and LEFTY!!!
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1081. JaxAdjuster
12:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2005
That wind map is big. Anyone have any idea what the radius of the hurricane force winds are?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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