New Orleans to Pensacola at high risk from Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2005

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The Hurricane Hunters measured a central pressure of 949 mb at 11:14am EDT, up from the cental pressure of 941 mb measured at 7:07am EDT. Concentric eyewalls with diameters of 13 and 40 nm were reported, satellite images show that the eye has filled in with clouds and the cloud top temperatures have warmed. These observations indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun. This was expected, since the 7:07am Hurricane Huneter report indicated that the eye diameter had shrunk to 9 nm, about the smallest diameter one gets before an eyewall replacement cycle begins.

The maximum winds may fall below 115 mph while Katrina undergoes this eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall collapses and a new outer eyewall forms. This would make Katrina a strong Category 2 storm, and indeed the maximum winds seen so far by the Hurricane Hunters were only 87 knots (100 mph) at 10,000 feet. This is a temporary affliction, since Katrina is in nearly ideal conditions for strengthening, and is expected to reach Category 4 status by Sunday. The convection and outflow are starting to look better on the north side of the hurricane, and Katrina should have a more symmetrical shape typical of Category 4 hurricanes by Sunday. As seen in the cumulative wind image below, Katrina has increased markedly in size the past 12 hours, and will deliver a widespread damaging blow wherever she comes ashore.



The favorable intensification conditions for Katrina are expected to last up until landfall, when some increase in shear may occur. Intensification forecasts are highly unreliable, though, and it would be no surprise if Katrina were a Category 2, 3, or 4 landfall. The track forecast is getting more believable, as Katrina's westerly motion shows that it has begun it recurvature, pretty much where NHC and the models were predicting. A landfall between New Orleans and Pensacola is on track for Monday morning or afternoon. I expect a Category 3 storm at landfall.

I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastrophic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evacuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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531. whirlwind
8:26 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
The superdome can withstand pressure of about 160psf. That equals to about 220-240mph. If higher gusts are present,delamination or other damage to the foam can occur.
So 50000 people may be dead on Monday, especially if tornadoes are spawned.
530. awestruckswampgirl
3:29 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
Announcement Just Made---Contra-flow has been activated to evac New Orleans.....
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529. leftyy420
8:29 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
have him call his local govt and have him ask them about ur fears. maybe if he hears this from a govt official he would be more likely to leave
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
528. BigDaddy1978
8:28 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Dragoon: I'm on top of a hill too. But my grandparents in the same town live down in the valley.

Any refugees from down south want to come to Pittsburgh we welcome you! I recommend Primanti Brothers. They make a sandwich you won't soon forget. :-D
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527. IKE
8:27 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
"I HAVE EXPERIENCED 2 CAT 5s BUT I WAS TO YOUNG TO GO OUT IN THEM...I WILL DO IT THIS TIME AND I WILL FEEL THE ENERGY AND THE WILD RUSH.."....

LMAO........Stormtop...you're a headcase. If anyone believes him? Unbelievable!
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526. SaymoBEEL
3:21 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
Ivan transplanted a tree from my yard to my truck. I'm keeping one vehicle at home under a carport. The rest are going where there are no trees.
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525. fortlauderdalegirl
8:24 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
BigDaddy1978 -- I live in Sunrise, FL -- west of FtL. We dodged the brunt of Katrina by 17 miles. If it wouldn't have made the southern dip, we would be walking in flood water now.

I've tried to tell my grandfather he cannot stay on the 4th FL of a high rise bldg. He is stubborn. Is there a link w/info. that I could read to him -- so he will know I'm not making this up???? Money is not an issue for him -- his girlfriend's 84 year old mom is -- they would have to take her w/them. All of them are in good health, though.
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524. leftyy420
8:28 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
they should have buses to bus these people out. this is nuts. 60,000 people with no means to get out. i can not believ this
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
523. leftyy420
8:27 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
i would go there if they open it up. that would be a good ides
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
522. MSY68
8:27 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Toronto or Pittsburg sounds pretty good right now
521. iyou
8:26 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Toronto here - we'll get some too, next week.
Member Since: July 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
520. Dragoon
8:26 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
BigDaddy1978 I'm near Pittsburgh too. Luckily I'm north and east and I live on a big hill.. so we never got flooded.
519. MSY68
8:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Is the Superdome my best (only) option if I cant get out ?? And what will they do if there are more people than the Superdome can hold??
518. itsacoaster
8:20 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Ft. Lauderdale Girl:

It is true: the winds are higher at higher altitudes. This is especially true of hurricanes inland. The winds lift off the surface rather quickly, and not much change in height can bring up a large change in wind. This would be especially unlucky if the track brings the storm just to the left of Ocean Springs.

With the forecast of Kat being a Cat. 4 at landfall, I agree that it would not be wise. If you can convince him to go east out of Mississippi, I'm thinking that the winds will not be as strong as far east as, say, Apalachicola.

On the other hand, if there's a nice part to the Gulf of Mexico, the water gets shallow 50-or-so miles prior to landfall, and that really is a saving grace for a number of storms.
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517. bobaloo04
8:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
hey its Stormtop NWS..what do you mean??...LMAO...Poor guy living in his fantasy world. Godd luck taking those pictures..lol..
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516. leftyy420
8:24 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
missy i will pray for you. the traffic is so backed up. they need to hurry up and make it one way all lanes. this is just a big mistake they are making.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
515. BigDaddy1978
8:24 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I live in Pittsburgh iyou. We'll be dealing with the storm after New Orleans. Ivan flooded out three big towns near the city and damn near flooded my grandparents place of business.

I have active interests on the coast though. And thanks to John Hope I've been a storm watcher since grade school.

But I agree with you: God help the people on the Gulf Coast.
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514. MSY68
8:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
if UA cancels guess Ill get to live through (hopefully)_ a Cat 5 ...WOW....kinda exciting,,,but very very scary
513. mikenlidia
8:20 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
fortlauderdalegirl,

I would suggest that you check wlox.com at about 5pm or so by that time they should have a list of reasonable shelters in Ocean Springs. Yes the 4th floor of a building is a poor idea, unless he is refering to the Villa Maria which is a retirement home in Ocean Springs that has a history of taking great care of their elderly residents.
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512. steelmagnolia44
8:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thank You STORMTOP.

I am grateful for the time you spent writing your posts. It has been helpful and it is because of your info that I started preparing early.
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511. WunderDogg
3:20 PM CDT on August 27, 2005
Posted By: Carbo04 at 2:39 PM CDT on August 27, 2005.
Actually Cat. 5's tend to be bigger.

I don't know about that. Camille was not a large storm compared to, say, Ivan, and was most definitely a Cat. 5.

Seems to me the longer track a hurricane follows, and the more eyewall replacement cycles it goes through, the bigger it can get. This, IMHO, is why Cape Verdes-type hurricanes can get so huge. Camille didn't travel very far but wound up very quick, a tightly-wrapped fist. Ivan traveled a very long way, and was a huge, sprawling monster at landfall.
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510. IKE
8:17 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
From Stormtop..."THE DANGER AREA WILL COME WHICH I WILL DISCUSS LATER WHEN I PUT UP HURRICANE WARNINGS..".....

Your hurricane warnings???? What a joke.
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509. iyou
8:18 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thanks MSY68 & BigDaddy - can't bear the thought of those with few options...stuck there. My thoughts are with all of you down there.
Member Since: July 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
508. Dragoon
8:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Also, if Katrina is being picked up by a trough.. it certainly won't stall. So I don't think you have to worry about that. If anything Katrinas forward speed will increase after landfall, and by quite a bit.
507. MSY68
8:21 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
thnks for th info...and bad news on delta...im flying out on united at 5pm sunday..i hope they dont cancel...my car is in the shop until Monday...no rental cars available...no buses....if united cancels in stuck in NO...
506. thunder01
8:01 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
No matter the exact path of Katrina...if the storm makes landfall within 50 miles of the city proper in any direction...NOLA is in big trouble. If there is a cat 3/4/5 strike, the city is guaranteed to see serious to extreme damage. A track west of the city would be bad...this could cause the ocean to inundate what limited marshland is left SW of the city and create an amount of stress on the seawalls/levees that would likely lead to catastrophic failure. A track from due south, or just slightly east...would also prove disasterous, as clockwise flow(eventually northerly winds over Ponchatrain, driving water south into the city) would likely overtop the levee system. This is assuming the levees can hold out...civil engineers have been voicing concerns that the predominately dirt levees to the N/NW of the city would fail very quickly even with a direct hit of a cat 2 storm. We'll see, but unless the point of landfall is significantly different from what is being currently forecast, NOLA is in BIG TROUBLE.

Visit my site...
Link
for more info
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505. BigDaddy1978
8:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Hey fortlauderdale girl: Where in the city are you? My family owns an apartment building on the intracoastal.
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504. leftyy420
8:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
u should urge them cause of their age to please head to a shelter if they will not evac anywhere elese. if something happens they may not have any way to get help. also please make sure they have all their doctors info and list of any ailments with them as well as a good supply of their meds. but for their age a shelter would probly be better than being by them selves. not saying the elderly are not capable but u have to plan for all the situations u can not imagine, the best thing would be for them to evac as far away as possible. but a shelter over staying in a partment specially on the 4th floor would be more ideal. also tell them the winds increase with hieght so a the ground level she could be say 140 but on the 4th floor they could be as high as say 150-160
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
503. hpbear
8:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
just a quick thing here. not only is new orleans in danger, But I hope things go well for US 61 and US 185 heading towards Vicksburg and MLU respectively. Because those are the main roads north of MSY if you're going to stay in LA. If the latest models are right, US 61 is goiung to become a nightmare and US 185 isn't going to be much better. And that's a problem for me since my gf goes to school over in MLU, right near US 185 and I-20.
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502. Dragoon
8:20 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I'll give Stormtop one thing, he has done fairly well in forecasting the track of this storm. I doubt the winds will be 180 mph at landfall, though.

The REASON people gave you so much crap and still do is because you really went off the wall with some of your predictions. The ones I remember most are about Emily stalling and heading towards the Gulf Coast. You can't expect not to be flamed when you say stuff like that without giving any relevant information to back it up.

In any case, good luck to you.
501. MSY68
8:20 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Does anyone know if the SUPERDOME can withstand 180 MPH WINDS ?? if not the 60,000 w.out cars are dead...
500. tmichelle1979
4:16 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
MSY

I just looked up the information on the Superdome. This is what I found:
The Superdome is built to withstand catastrophes; the roof is built to stand up to 200 MPH wind and even deep flood water wouldn't reach the second level 35 feet from the ground. It has thus been used as an emergency shelter but is not designed for the task; in 1998 during Hurricane Georges problems included looting and supplying 14,000 people with necessities.

Here's the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_Superdome
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499. EZMonster
8:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Delta has cancelled ALL flights out of New Orleans for Sunday and others may soon follow. If you are planning to fly still, I would call ASAP, because it might not be a viable out route.
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498. leftyy420
8:16 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
god bless u stormt and please be safe man
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
497. fortlauderdalegirl
8:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Sorry, hit the Post key by accident. QUESTION #1: My 81 year old grandfather lives in Ocean Springs, MS. He is evacuating from his low lying area to the 4th FL of a high rise apartment bldg. We just finishing arguing with him that this is a POOR decision -- the windows will blow out, the winds are felt greater at that height, etc. Can you please give me some advice to talk him out of this?? I'm really scared for him. It is himself, his girlfriend (67) and her mom (84). #2 - Are there any hotels left heading East??
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496. BigDaddy1978
8:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
iyou: The Superdome will be the shelter of last resort I think.

My cousin went to Tulane in the late 1980s. Hard to imagine he may not have an alma mater any more once this storm passes.

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495. MSY68
8:16 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
ur right ...army corps of engineers would have to bring in pumps...they estimate they could pump 3" a day...at 30 feetit would take 90 days to pump out most of the water
494. mikenlidia
8:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Jackfish are you still here?

Interesting post regarding your bluewater fishing trip, I suggest that next time you make a trip like that you invite your old friend Mike Allen and you will have better luck ! Just moved back to Ocean Springs after 2 1/2 years in TN in Anesthesia school. I guess Katrina is one hell of a welcome wagon. I'll give you a call soon
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493. paulfrmpasschristian
3:17 PM EST on August 27, 2005
you don't have to yell
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492. STORMTOP
7:39 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
OK GUYS AND GALS I CAME BACK ON HERE I CANT STAY LONG BUT UNFORTUNATELY THE STORM KATRINA IS STARTING TO DEEPEN AND STILL MOVING WEST...IT LOOKS LIKE NEW ORLEANS TO PASS CHRISTIAN WILL BE THE BULLSEYE SOMETIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT ..THIS IS A VERY BAD CASE SCENARIO WITH THE WATER FOR NEW ORLEANS..IT WOULD BE BETTER IF IT WENT FURTHER WEST TOWARDS HOUMA BUT ITS NOT..I SEE VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF A CHANGE IN THE HURRICANE TRACK UNTIL KATRINA MAKES LANDFALL...YES I STILL DISAGREE WITH THE NHC THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A CAT 5 WHEN IT COMES INLAND....THE WINDS I HAVE IS 180MPH I BEEN STICKING TO THIS ALL WEEK AND THIS KIND OF SCENARIO WE HAVE NOW OR EVEN A SHIFT TO PASS CHRISTIAN MISS WILL CAUSE CATOSTOPHIC DAMAGE IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA...EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND EXTREMELY FIERCE WINDS...I DO KNOW WHAT NEW ORLEANS WILL LOOK LIKE AFTER KATRINA IS GONE...IT WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO REBUUILD BUT WE WILL GET THROUGH IT..WE HAVE DODGED A BULLET FOR 40 YEARS NOW ITS FINALLY TIME TO EAT THE BULLET..I HOPE EVERYONE WILL EVACUATE AND LISTEN TO THERE OFFICIALS...I WILL BE TAKING PICTURES AS LONG AS I CAN TO BRING YOU FIRST HAND WHAT A CAT 5 IS LIKE...I HAVE EXPERIENCED 2 CAT 5s BUT I WAS TO YOUNG TO GO OUT IN THEM...I WILL DO IT THIS TIME AND I WILL FEEL THE ENERGY AND THE WILD RUSH..LOOK FOR THE NHC TO BE EXTENDING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO MOBILE ALABAMA BY 4PM ADVISORY...THE DANGER AREA WILL COME WHICH I WILL DISCUSS LATER WHEN I PUT UP HURRICANE WARNINGS..I HAVE BEEN ON THIS STORM SINCE IT HIT FLORIDA AND I AM PROUD OF MY RECORD WITH IT..I SAID YESTERDAY IN MY POST WHEN ALL YOUR COMPUTERS HAD THE FLA PANHANDLE UNDER THE GUN THAT WAS A JOKE...I SAID YESTERDAY AT THE 5PM ADVISORY THE NHC WOULS SWITCH THE TRACK TO THE WEST SUBSTANTIALLY ABOUT 150 MILES..THEY SWITCHED IT 170 MILES...I THEN SAID IT WOULD BE SWITCHED AT 10PM LAST NIGHT OVER NEW ORLEANS WHICH HAPPENED..RIGHT NOW KATRINA IS STILL MOVING ON A WEST HEADING WITH THE NW TURN OCCURING AROUND 7AM SUNDAY MORNING...IT STILL COULD SWITCH A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF NEW ORLEANS WHICH I THINK IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE KATRINA IS TAKING HER TIME MAKING THE TURN...THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO DIG SOUTH AND IN THE NEXT 8 TO 10 HOURS KATRINA WILL BE TURNING NW THEN LATER IN THE PERIOD AT 90 OR 91 DEGREES TURNING NORTH BEFORE COMING ON SHORE..REALLY IT DOESNT MAKE A DIFFERENCE BECAUSE ODF KATRINAS SIZE...ALL I CAN SAY YOU WILL BE READING ABOUT KATRINA FOR MONTHS TO COME....THE TEMPS ARE STILL 92 DEGREES 200 MILES OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST...THIS WILL GIVE KATRINA EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE LANDFALL....IM CALLING IT KATRINA A CAT 5 AT 180MPH AND IM AFRAID ONCE KATRINA GETS INLAND ITS MOVING SLOW NOW IT WILL STALL..WE ARE EXPECTING 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN RIGHT NOW IF SHE STALLS THE SKY IS THE LIMIT....GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE AND I WANT TO THANK EVERYONE FOR CONGRTS ME ON MY FORECAST FOR KATRINA..I HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST 30 EMAILS SAYING THANK YOU I ENJORY READING YOUR POSTS AND YOU ARE THE BEST DONT LET THE GUYS GET TO YOU...MY ANSWER TO THAT THE GUYS DONT BOTHER ME BELIEVE ME I MIGHT ARGUE WITH LEFTY BUT I RESPECT HIM ,HAWK AND WABIT WHO IS REALLY IMPRESSING ME WITH HER SCENARIOS..SHE WILL MAKE A GREAT WEATHERMAN...LEFTY YOU KNOW BRO LOOK OUT FOR EVERYONE YOU CAN STRESS TO THEM HOW MUCH DANGER THEY ARE IN...YOU ARE A GREAT GUY LEFTY IM GLAD I HAD THAT ARGUMENT WITH YOU...SOMETIMES IT PAYS TO ARGUE I THINK....WELL ILL TRY TO TALK TO YOU GUYS LATER BUT I DONT LOOK FOR MUCH OF A NEW TRACK AT 4PM..........STORMTOP
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491. shfd739
8:09 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
To bigpoppa my wife and i work in pascagoula for acadian ambulance but we live in mobile.We are staying at our office on old mobile at 14th st.dennis was a good test run for us and im afraid thats what dennis was-it got us ready for another but bigger storm.to the guy from ocean springs my partner was out the other day and said they were having to fish deep and didnt catch near what they do normally,maybe half of norm due to hot water.jackson county seems to be taking a wait and see but knowing how many bed bound folks and nursing home people we have to move in ambulances our time is cutting it close.
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490. HillsboroughBay
4:09 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
I know you all know this. But you are all stressed, deciding to get out. get your important papaers, Ins & inventory pictures , Medications. Personal papers/documents.
Data backed up un CD/DVD.

I just watched a TV special aired previously that said it would take 6 Months to get the water out of New Orleans as all the pumps would be under water. The 10K body bakg will not even be close. Get out NOW.

489. MSY68
8:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
those 60000 to 100000 are being planned to be housed at the superdome...does anyone here think the superdome can withstand 150+ winds..does anyone know what it is built / coded to whithstand?
488. leftyy420
8:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
i feel confident in the latest nhc track cause it is close to where i would put my own track if i did one. i must mention i would not be suprise to see her make landfall 50 miles on each side of the nhc. thats a safe range i think landfall would occur
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
487. SAINTHURRIFAN
7:54 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
cosmic i will try to remain a christian on this please dont say we are the same irespect thier knowledge but certainly dont agree plus i do not curse . i take it you are very young and are not in the of this storm thats why you are acting childish.
i will pray for you and all of us in the storms path try the lord you will have a better out look and please keep your judgements to yourself. god bless.
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486. mobilegirl
8:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I hear you!

We're going to stay. Got the groceries. We're surrounded by oaks, but we had ZERO damage from Ivan. Usually put my car in one of the parking garages downtown.

I hope your trees hold!
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485. fortlauderdalegirl
8:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I just joined -- was a lurker for days. I've learned a lot and thank each of you. QUESTION:
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484. iyou
8:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
No help for them at all?????
Member Since: July 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
483. MSY68
8:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Its not that I dont think it will happen its juts os hard to accept and paimns the heart to think
482. leftyy420
8:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
u would think that but the saving grace about a doughnut is that she can only be as strong as 85 percent of the availible strom intesity. so maybe 165 or a lil higher but she would fluctuate up and down from that point as isabele did. so thats why i have not upped my wind predictions but i am more towards the high end than i was this morning when i got up
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
481. MSY68
8:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
My heart aches for the poor of NO who dont have cars and are stuck here ..there are close to 100,000 people in NO w/out cars

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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