New Orleans to Pensacola at high risk from Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2005

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The Hurricane Hunters measured a central pressure of 949 mb at 11:14am EDT, up from the cental pressure of 941 mb measured at 7:07am EDT. Concentric eyewalls with diameters of 13 and 40 nm were reported, satellite images show that the eye has filled in with clouds and the cloud top temperatures have warmed. These observations indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun. This was expected, since the 7:07am Hurricane Huneter report indicated that the eye diameter had shrunk to 9 nm, about the smallest diameter one gets before an eyewall replacement cycle begins.

The maximum winds may fall below 115 mph while Katrina undergoes this eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall collapses and a new outer eyewall forms. This would make Katrina a strong Category 2 storm, and indeed the maximum winds seen so far by the Hurricane Hunters were only 87 knots (100 mph) at 10,000 feet. This is a temporary affliction, since Katrina is in nearly ideal conditions for strengthening, and is expected to reach Category 4 status by Sunday. The convection and outflow are starting to look better on the north side of the hurricane, and Katrina should have a more symmetrical shape typical of Category 4 hurricanes by Sunday. As seen in the cumulative wind image below, Katrina has increased markedly in size the past 12 hours, and will deliver a widespread damaging blow wherever she comes ashore.



The favorable intensification conditions for Katrina are expected to last up until landfall, when some increase in shear may occur. Intensification forecasts are highly unreliable, though, and it would be no surprise if Katrina were a Category 2, 3, or 4 landfall. The track forecast is getting more believable, as Katrina's westerly motion shows that it has begun it recurvature, pretty much where NHC and the models were predicting. A landfall between New Orleans and Pensacola is on track for Monday morning or afternoon. I expect a Category 3 storm at landfall.

I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastrophic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evacuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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631. muffinanne
8:35 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Give stormtop a break. So what if he is arrogant. You'de be laughing his you know what off if his prediction didn't come to pass, and so far it looks like it may. Even if it doesn't do exactly as he says, he's come pretty darn close when all the early models had it going to central FL and back in the Atlantic or Apalachicola or any place other than where it looks like it's going today. I just feel for the poor people that don't have a car, elderly, pets that can't be taken....the list goes on. And for someone that has evacuated twice in the last 11 months, if you're healthy, have a car and the means to afford a hotel/motel room OR have to stay in a car in a Wal Mart parking lot where you're safe, then you are fortunate indeed. Just read Issac's Storm about the turn of the century storm in Galveston and get the feel of what it would be like with the water rising and blowing your house apart, clinging to on a board with your child while all other forms of life (snakes, etc) are trying to inhabit the same life clinging board as you. Just get out MSY, God Bless you and everyone else, thank your lucking stars if you're fortunate to not have this monster on you. (Still hoping it doesn't come to Destin.)!
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630. leftyy420
9:09 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
msy, i sent my number to ur box. u should write it down and call if u need to hear a voice cause it could get really bad. i don't know if u will be able to but its the least i can do
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
629. mobilegirl
9:04 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
adaplant... www.wkrg.com .... they stayed on throughout Dennis and people all over the world were watching via their webcast. They're not broadcasting yet tho...
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628. CaneJunkie
9:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Just came in from being out and about in Baton Rouge. Propane is in short supply and the I-10 traffic is comming to a crawl. I talked to two friends I saw while out and asked if they were preparing for the storm. Both responses were, "What storm?". Kind of scary!
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627. itsacoaster
9:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Dragoon... I forgot to account for the time of year that Dennis made landfall. That would definitely make the more shallow water--and also cool--unfavorable for sustaining Cat. 4 status.

I quickly skimmed through Ivan's history and it was a mixture of shear and shallow water.

I don't doubt that it will reach Cat. 5 in the central Gulf, but I'm just saying that I don't think it will be able to keep that strength as it nears the coast.
626. MSY68
9:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thanks EZ...good idea!
625. IKE
9:01 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Latest NAM model has shifted eastward. Has it coming into extreme SE LA...but veering NE before hitting land and coming inland over the Mobile, AL. area. It'll be interesting to see the new GFS and see if it shifts eastward to. I still can't see this storm crossing 90 degrees west. It only moved from 85.4 to 85.6 west between the 1 and 4pm advisories. I stiil think this trough will veer it east of the "big easy".
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
624. puntagordaguy
9:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Does anyone had linkes to either TV or radio streams. I have been trying to find them for some time now. WWL used to have them but now they do not. Any help would be appreciated.
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623. MSY68
9:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thanks Lefy...I appreciate that
622. MSY68
9:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
what did Joe say??
621. leftyy420
9:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
later on i will give u my number. if un need to hear a voice or get info i will be here. you can even call me collect if u have too
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
620. MSY68
9:04 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thanks again Lefty...have some back up batteries...buiding has bacj up generator..and although slow can get online with cellular card...however once the cell towers go ill be dark...
619. EZMonster
8:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
MY68, The SE Louisiana Red Cross might be able to offer you advice also. You should take their # with you even if you go to your friend's place in case you need assistance after the storm has passed.

Phone- (800) 229-8191
618. leftyy420
9:04 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
u will see the giant eye in a lil over an hour. it is a large dimple now. here is a good link


Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
617. iyou
9:02 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
MSY - here too - the hills are younger than me!!!
Member Since: July 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
616. BigDaddy1978
9:03 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
MSY: Good luck to you. We'll be thinking good thoughts.

Joe Bastardi was just on Fox. As a Penn State grad and former radio station employee in State College I've had numerous dealings with him. He knows his stuff and always tells it like it is.

I'm with his prognostication. It's going to be disaster down there.
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615. leftyy420
9:04 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
yes please do. i will be where with you thru it all. i feel so bad i amsorry
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
614. FLPhil
9:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Is it just me or has Katrina been starting its strenghting cycles at night. I say this becasue overnight (last night) it became a Cat 3 (or at least it was when i woke up) and it appears the eyewall replacement cycle is coming to a close sometime tonight. Could we see a similar event upcoming, with a strong Cat 3 or even 4 in the morning?

On a side note, 90L looks pretty healthy as far as storm activity goes (at the moment).
613. MSY68
9:03 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thanks we have an inner office we can shelter in..no windows
612. MSY68
9:02 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thanks Lefty with Gods Grace we will be ok ..wil try to blogf as long as we can
611. dryfly
8:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Whoa folks...

It is a long way until Monday... a lot can happen between now and then. Definitely best to get out if possible but the 'doomsday' stuff isn't helpul to those who might be stuck there... they need to use their heads and now.

MSY...

Do you have friends with a car, know ANYONE with a car... offer to buy ALL the gas & pay for the hotel room as far as they will take you.

If you can't do that then try to be the first person in line at the S-Dome... not the last. I bet they start letting people in WAY before the storm hits... maybe tomorrow even before your flight is scheduled to leave.

If you don't like that option the high rise might work but only if it isn't too close to open water & direct wash... erosion of the underground structures could topple it - shouldn't happen but it did with some hotels on the beach w/ Camille... some of the greatest loss of life occured in them.

Another concern of the scrappers will be flying broken glass... if the storm hits and hard the curtain walls will shatter - and besides blowing broken glass around the wind could suck stuff right out... don't be near them... be in central passages or stair wells THINK INTERIOR.

Good Luck.
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610. MSY68
9:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
5pm discussion

WTNT42 KNHC 272033
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...SHOW THAT KATRINA IS STILL IN A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL 9 N MI WIDE AND THE
OUTER 45-50 N MI WIDE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN AS HIGH AS
950 MB...WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT
HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE
OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS IN THIS
AREA ARE STILL LESS THAN 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/6. KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD
CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED
AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS
SHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER. THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR.

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE. THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT...
WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
THAT KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST A BIT.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
AND EXPANDED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PARTS
OF THE WATCH AREA.
609. leftyy420
9:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
i am sorry msy. i will pray for you so much. if i could trade places with you i would. i am so so sorry
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
608. Halon056
4:59 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
check this link.... tell me what you think Link
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
607. Dragoon
8:58 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
itsacoaster.. Ivan was being sheared, Dennis came at a time of year in which the heat content of the gulf wasn't enough to sustain a major hurricane.

Katrina likely will not be sheared.. and there is PLENTY of energy available.
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606. MSY68
8:58 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thanks Lefty...I feel so much better...LOL
605. itsacoaster
8:57 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
It would be tough with simple sattelite photographs to accurately determine the position of the storm at this time. The concentric eyewall cycle is definitely obscuring things for those of us that are watching.
604. MSY68
8:57 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
thanks hills ..gathering stuff now..we plan on "setting up" there tomorrow afternoon..ill bring my laptop and mobile and will try to blog as long as i can...
603. leftyy420
8:55 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
when a storm becomes a doughnut she will have a large and powerfull eye wall. she will also have hardly any banding. the bad part is the stop the eye wall cycles and can intensify into a strong cat 5 and maintain that intensity for a long period of time. isabeal was a cat 5 doughnut for 3-5 days. so if she is indeed becomming a doughnut she will likely intensify until landfall with no drop off of intensity. this will not be a ivan or a denis. this will be a monster
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
602. BigDaddy1978
8:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
FortLauderdaleGirl: We have our place four blocks off A1A. Walk up Vistamar Street and you can't miss it.

Good to know Sunrise came out ok. I can't wait to vacation there next February.
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600. Halon056
8:57 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I swear it looked like the center doubled back on itself and then jogged north... I know that sounds insane but.....
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
599. SouthernLady
8:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
friends, not fried. hehe Good luck everyone!!
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 29926
598. USAmet
8:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
hard to tell now if it was a N jog or not... I am having trouble finding a good center of the storm right now with the eye closed
597. HillsboroughBay
8:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
MSY68.

FOOD.. WATER.. MEDS ETC for a few weeks at least.
I will be hard to get supplies into the city that is insid a lake. You can imagine all those bags. & they have 10000 on hand all the time.

Best of luck!
596. itsacoaster
8:55 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I'm just going to throw my two cents in and say that it would be very unlikely for it to make landfall as a Cat. 5. Unless it makes landfall at the "tip" of Louisiana (please forgive my geography), the water is rather shallow as it gets nearer to the coast, which is not good at all for a powerful hurricane. In recent memory, Ivan and Dennis both weakened before coming onshore.
594. AySz88
8:55 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
What happens if it becomes a "doughnut" - is that good or bad for intensification?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
593. SouthernLady
8:54 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
STORMTOP!!! You rock, thanks to you some frieds from La. were coming to a Ms. wedding today and after I gave them your forcast...They boarded up and planned for a more extended stay. Thank you SO much...
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 29926
592. FLPanhandle
8:54 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Looks like a northward jog to me.
591. Halon056
8:54 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Well I know its rebuilding, but it sure as heck looked like a jog to me....
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
590. leftyy420
8:53 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Sheraqueenofthebeach thank you for your suggestions i will do my best
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
589. PcolaGal
8:53 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Well, it's obvious that I'm a computer illiterate since I accidentally hit the send key!

I just wanted to tell y'all THANK YOU for your help and that I passed on the address to everyone at work and told them this is where to go to get the full scoop!

Since Ivan's visit last September, we have now had the company of T.S. Arlene, T.S. Cindy, and Hurricane Dennis all within about a 4 to 5 week period. Of course we don't want another hurricane, but you never want someone else to suffer,either. Many of us Florida Crackers are praying that Katrina will NOT hit New Orleans, and would be willing to have to be her target, so that many lives could be spared and to keep our country from suffering a devastating economic setback from destroyed Gulf of Mexico oil supplies. I wish the very best for everyone out there!

P.S. PascagoulaGal: Sorry! I didn't mean to copy you with my PcolaGal. I had not noticed your name before I signed up. PcolaGirl sounded wrong since I'm pushing 50!
588. MSY68
8:53 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thnks Lefty but I think Im stuck here...my friends office seems like my best option..sahring the superdome woth 50,000 people seems likerecipe for disaster..if it gets bad order could easily break down...thats alot of people to be stuck with
587. AySz88
8:52 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
I think the convection's just growing to the north?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
586. USAmet
8:52 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
check out the new water vapor, the thing is deepening quickly

whirlwind, IKE is right you know it sucks that this happens but seems like you and a few other people are getting joy out of others bad fortune
585. whirlwind
8:51 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
IKE- one word for you "wait".

"first cat5 of the season to make landfall"

Tuesdays newpaper headline....
584. leftyy420
8:51 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
wow the second eye wall keeps getting bigger. i am sure she will doughnut now
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
583. MSY68
8:51 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Even the limo compys are full...LOL...im gonna ride it out at my friends office on the 5th floor....his building is rated for 135 MPH...hopefully that will be as bad as it gets
582. Halon056
8:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Did anyone see a northward jog in the last couple of SAT frames??? or am I seeing things????
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
581. itsacoaster
8:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2005
Take a look at the latest water vapor loop.

Katrina's wind field appears to be continually expanding, and the central core appears as if it's a few hours away from coming out of the concentric eyewall cycle.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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