99L a threat to Carolinas; Felix dies; Henriette does a double landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on September 05, 2007

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Hurricane Felix is no more. The high mountains of Honduras have dissipated the storm, just 24 hours after Felix smashed ashore near the Nicaragua/Honduras border with 160 mph winds and an 18-foot storm surge. Puerto Cabezas, a Nicaraguan Caribbean coast town of 40,000 people, took the worst of Felix's wrath. The town sits just 10 miles south of where the eye hit, and preliminary reports indicate much of the town was heavily damaged, and three people were killed. The big fear from Felix continues to be the heavy rains it is spawning over the mountainous regions of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. So far, satellite estimates of rainfall show amount up to 125 mm (5 inches) have fallen, with up to another 5 inches expected by 8pm tonight (Figure 1). It is unlikely that rains of this magnitude can trigger the type of catastrophes suffered by the region during Hurricane Mitch and Hurricane Fifi. I am hopeful that Felix's major destruction will be confined to the small region near landfall in northeastern Nicaragua.


Figure 1. Forecast rain amounts for the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT Wednesday September 5 (00 GMT September 6). Maximum rain amounts of about 125 mm ( 5 inches) are predicted over the region where Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador meet, and also near the Belize/Guatemala border.

Carolinas at risk from tropical disturbance 99L
An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary appears to have developed into a subtropical depression, and may grow into a tropical storm over the next day or two. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops of 99L show the classic appearance of a weak, sheared system--a nearly exposed low level circulation system, with all the heavy thunderstorm activity pushed to one side by strong upper-level winds. This shear is forecast to remain between 15 and 25 knots over the next two days, which should allow some slow development. A QuikSCAT pass from 6:52am EDT showed that 99L has a vigorous closed circulation with top winds of 25-30 knots (30-35 mph), so in my book this system is already a subtropical depression. The reason I call it subtropical is because there is still clear evidence of a frontal boundary attached to 99L, evident as long band of clouds extending from the south side of the storm (Figure 2). The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system at 2pm EDT, and NHC may wait until then to see if 99L can maintain its strength before naming it a subtropical depression.

The computer models are all unanimous in developing 99L into a tropical storm. The preferred tracks are into North Carolina or South Carolina by Sunday or Monday. The HWRF, SHIPS, and GFDL intensity models are calling for a weak tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and Category 2 hurricane, respectively, when 99L makes landfall Monday in the Carolinas. Residents of the east coast of the U.S., and the Carolinas in particular, should carefully watch the development of 99L.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of 99L showing the nearly exposed circulation center, and a front attached to the storm's south side. Image credit: NOAA.

African development?
The models unanimously forecast a tropical depression will develop near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa 2-4 days from now. The models showed a similar degree of unanimity for the development of Hurricane Dean in a similar situation, so the chances of another named storm off the coast of Africa early next week are considerable.

Henriette hits Baja, heads for mainland Mexico
Hurricane Henriette hit the southern tip of Mexico's Baja as a Category 1 hurricane yesterday, and is on its way to a second landfall in mainland Mexico later today. This would make Henriette Mexico's second double landfalling hurricane this season--Hurricane Dean made a double landfall along the Atlantic side of Mexico, hitting the Yucatan Peninsula and mainland Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Guasave radar and satellite loops show that Henriette is not very well-organized, but the hurricane should be able to maintain its strength over the warm waters of the Sea of Cortez and come ashore as a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. Henriette killed one person due to high surf in Cabo San Lucas yesterday, and six people in landslides in Acapulco Saturday. The remains of Henriette could bring heavy rains to Arizona, New Mexico, and western Texas late this week.


Figure 3. Winds of Hurricane Henriette as measured by QuikSCAT at 8:57am EDT 9/4/07. Image credit: NASA/Brigham Young University.

I'll have an update later today in all probability, after the Hurricane Hunters investigate 99L.

Jeff Masters

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1758. boobless
2:28 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
SETX, from the TWD:
...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF COUPLED WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES MOVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA...
1757. guygee
2:12 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Yeah, gotta go, take care of the knee though!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1756. guygee
2:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Posted By: boobless at 2:05 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.
"SETX, guygee,
OK. Looks wet. No wave per sfc analysis in vicinity.
Maybe that pesky trof finally cuts off into a low and drifts west.
whadda ya'll see?
"

Exratropical gale for SE coast with winds enhanced due to strong gradient between low pressure and high o he north.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1755. boobless
2:09 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
gg, sorry you gotta go. twisted the crap out of my knee day b4 yesterday-nuttin to do but sit and spit.
see ya.
1754. IKE
2:05 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1753. boobless
2:05 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
SETX, guygee,
OK. Looks wet. No wave per sfc analysis in vicinity.
Maybe that pesky trof finally cuts off into a low and drifts west.
whadda ya'll see?
1752. IKE
2:02 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Posted By: K8eCane at 8:33 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
its amazing how many of you get silently ENRAGED when you think there may be an east coast system. Ike, Drakoen, etc
i find it humorous YAWN


Silently enraged? I don't even live on the east coast.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1751. SETXHchaser
2:00 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
boobless
No its showing two different TC, one 99l getting very strong and drilling SC/NC and it make another out of the blob off the sw coast of fla. the one it shows heading our way is not fully developed, quits frames in 84 hours, still offshore...
1750. guygee
1:57 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Right jp, NAM is good for mid-latitudes over land, and TCs do sometimes go overland into the mid-latitudes to die.

Anyways, I'm half-past late...hard to pull away from this blog...I am gone.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1749. Squid28
1:56 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
I'm not putting a whole lot of faith in it, but it is material for fodder if nothing else. It does spin up non events, but their is a line of showers hanging out off the coast....

neverless, I will occassionally cast an eye in that direction given the time of year....
Member Since: May 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
1748. boobless
1:54 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Is it showing 99l turning south and west into the GOM?
1746. guygee
1:50 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
NAM is not reliable for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis and intensity. It has well-known convective feedback problems, so it has a tendency to generate hurricanes out of thunderstorms.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1745. boobless
1:50 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
SETX,
I think you crashed their server-trying...
1744. Squid28
1:46 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
How often do they run the NAM? Also, I know it's just a model, but given what it does with 99L I have to wonder if it's on crack......

(not hat 99L couldn't develop, but it looks pretty ill right now)
Member Since: May 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
1743. SETXHchaser
1:44 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
boobless
Have you seen the 00 NAM pcp image loop?
1741. SETXHchaser
1:42 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
squid
NAM looks like Houston/Galveston hit and VERY STRONG on 99
1740. Chigz
1:40 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Lets forget about 99L for now, and cast our eyes on the spectacular African wave that just emerged off the coast and according to Dr M most of the develop this...rotation with this wave is pretty evident and I would like to have some inputs from knowledgeable bloggers like JP on this feature....etc
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
1739. Squid28
1:39 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Here is that NAM run, if I am linking right....

Link
Member Since: May 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
1738. guygee
1:37 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
I think I see the cloud pattern that jp is referring to, so I tried to match up a visible image overlay onto an image already overlayed with the PWs, geodetic grid, etc...looking at it from both sides, it has to be acknowledged that the conditions to the west of 99L are dry and stable, not looking conducive for any further development attm...

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

bbl.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1736. K8eCane
1:33 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
its amazing how many of you get silently ENRAGED when you think there may be an east coast system. Ike, Drakoen, etc
i find it humorous YAWN
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3153
1734. boobless
1:29 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
StormW,
Can't argue with that. As you quickly mentioned last night, if the trof can lose some of its influence, the models begin to make some sense. The poof scenario and the models scenario are both valid. A pound of caution would do us all good.
Thanks
1733. Squid28
1:28 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Last night, some body put a link up to a NAM run, that had something turning on in the gulf on the 8th (?) if I read it right. It looked like it cranked up over by that frontal boundary off the west side of florida then went w-wnw then nw and the animation stopped with it looking at the upper Texas coast.

I still think something could come from the former 98L mess and the other little blob hanging around due north of it.....
Member Since: May 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
1732. thelmores
1:25 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
well done as always storm! :)

call it like you see it, and let the chips fall! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1731. amazinwxman
1:19 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
If I am ever on life support, I want to make sure ya'll on't have power of attorney, ya'll would pull the plug in a skinny minute! LOL

aww come on you're wrong about me! I'd pull the cord in a (too) skinny second LOL.
1730. thelmores
1:21 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
jp, that is what I have been looking at, as much as watching 99L.....

The high is the key to this puzzle....... I "think" the high will build in a little stronger than the models have been indicating.... I think the last GFDL run is possible picking up on this a bit, as it and the CMC are the left outlying models.....

as I stated previously, I would not expect much change in 99L during the day, but reports of 99L's demise are a bit premature I believe.

BBL, gotta get some work done! :)

also, I do agree at this point, that recon would be a waste of gas money! ;)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1728. hurricane23
1:19 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
JP that ULL has to back off in order for 99l to have a chance.We'll see what happens in the coming days but this thing is almost about to pass bermuda lol.This will have to be a monster ridge to it bring back all the way to the coast.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13795
1727. amazinwxman
1:18 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
wx 4me if it was all about what if's and such then there would be no def. rules and mechanics why should there be with it all about if's but I got the gist of what you're trying to say.
1726. WeatherMSK
1:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Well 99l looks alot better than 98l ever did at this point in time when everyone was questioning it's ability to develope, and look how long people went on and on about holding on hope of development. I am still waiting on the westward shift of 99l before i start making assumptions as to what this system is going to do.
Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 479
1724. saveabeagle
1:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
F1or1d1an thanks...

And just for the record I cure all my meat in a dehydrator..not on the backporch anymore..it kept falling into the pool:p

It does look kind of creepy out over the water though still....
1723. weathers4me
1:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
amazin. That is the shear beauty of weather. It is nothing but what ifs and if this then that. Get used to it. There are no absolutes or positives in weather except for that it is unpredictable and it does "happen" that's it. Have fun LOL..
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
1721. saveabeagle
1:14 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
If I am ever on life support, I want to make sure ya'll on't have power of attorney, ya'll would pull the plug in a skinny minute! LOL


Priceless!
1720. amazinwxman
1:13 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Thanks JP and I understand what you are saying but the models didn't forecast that ULL and 99L in response to it didn't act like a tropical entity and move away from it. The models didn't count on 99L moving as far east as it did so it has to make a journey(not a trip) back to effect the coast and then it has until what Sunday before the next front comes down and shunts it off to the North maybe NE or NNE
1717. thelmores
1:10 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
If I am ever on life support, I want to make sure ya'll on't have power of attorney, ya'll would pull the plug in a skinny minute! LOL

Conditions are certainly not favorable today, and I agree 99L is on life support.... but still has a good circulation..... and as long as it does, it still deserves scrutiny. It ain't over till the fat lady sings!

I still expect 99L to "approach" the east coast as a STS or TS...... expect little change in 99L today..... if it can survive until tomorrow, it has a good chance to still be a named storm....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1715. boobless
1:10 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Repost by boobless.

Posted By: boobless at 1:41 AM GMT on September 04, 2007.

Just for the record, basing 99's premature demise on a fairly strong southern branch jet to dig down over TN,GA, and link up w/its northern branch putting 99 out to sea.
1714. hurricane23
1:09 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
The upper level low that really is still there and has not backed off as predicted continues rip up 99L...Looks more like a cold front then anything tropical.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13795
1712. amazinwxman
1:06 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
It seems alot of people are trying to hold on for dear life to 99L it's dead and won't amount to anything subtropical or tropical lets just move on if you all need closure then fine. I keep hearing if it moves in this direction and if it survives through the day and if it wraps convection thats alot of if's. Only thing that seems certain is 99L is being sheared heavily and has to fight dry air and is being effected by an ULL. Can you that still think 99L is alive tell me why without using if's or maybe's or possibly?
1711. HurricaneGeek
1:06 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Any thoughts on the wave that just came off africa....looks very good w/ nice conditions ahead
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1710. plywoodstatenative
1:05 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
From Cnn.com:

PUERTO CABEZAS, Nicaragua (AP) -- Desperate families searched through the early morning hours Thursday for scores of missing Nicaraguans on the Caribbean coast where Hurricane Felix blew away villages, flooded rivers and killed at least 18 people.
Some 150 Miskito Indians who were adrift on the ocean clinging to buoys, canoes and slabs of wood were rescued by authorities, said Honduran federal Congresswoman Carolina Echeverria, who represents the northeastern province of Gracias a Dios, on the Nicaraguan border.

Nine of those rescued were in serious condition and were being attended by five Honduran doctors, Echeverria said.

"We believe there are many others out there floating on the sea," she said.

Far to the northwest, meanwhile, Henriette plowed into Mexico for the second time in two days, making landfall shortly before 9 p.m. EDT near the port city of Guaymas with top sustained winds of 75 mph. Seven deaths were reported from the Pacific storm, which hit Baja California on Tuesday.

Felix came ashore Tuesday in Nicaragua as a Category 5 hurricane packing 160 mph winds and heavy rains that caused mudslides, destroyed homes, uprooted trees and devastated villages. Watch how Felix has raised fears about deadly mudslides in Honduras

Wednesday night, Nicaraguan Civil Defense Department spokesman Alvaro Rivas said the confirmed death toll had doubled to 18. Defense officials said President Daniel Ortega had put the toll at 21. There was no immediate explanation for the discrepancy.

Rivas also said at least 60 people were missing: more than 50 in the Matagalpa province in the north and another 10 around hard-hit city of Puerto Cabezas.

The dead included a man who drowned when his boat capsized, a woman killed when a tree fell on her house and a newborn who died shortly after birth because her mother couldn't get medical attention

Among the missing were four fishermen whose small sailboat sank as Felix's center passed overhead. A survivor, Fernando Pereira, 24, said he clung to a piece of wood for 12 hours, despite a dislocated shoulder, and washed ashore at the village of Sandy Bay only hours after Felix made landfall there. He hadn't seen his friends since.

"I felt horrible," he said. "I was drinking salt water, and I thought I was going to die."

Others were caught in the sea as well. Jelivaro Climax, 22, said he had to swim through enormous waves to reach shore.

"Lightning flashed through a pitch black sky," he said. "I don't know how I survived. I swam with everything I had, and I was sure the sea would take me."

Felix swept over the Miskito Coast, an impoverished region where about 150,000 people live in jungle settlements. Their hamlets of wooden shacks and coconut groves are remote even in good weather, reachable only by air or flat-bottom boats.

The Miskitos, descendants of Indians, European settlers and African slaves, live semiautonomously, much like people on Indian reservations in the U.S.

There wasn't enough fuel after the storm for boats to make long trips, and Felix snapped steel cables that guided a small ferry carrying people and cars from Puerto Cabezas to the village of Wawahum.

Felix also wiped out crops and damaged most of the 70 tons of food and emergency goods that had been flown in before the storm.

On Wednesday, it was hard to find a building that wasn't damaged. Puerto Cabezas' hospital was filled with water, and doctors attended to the injured at an improvised clinic.

The remains of Felix were still dumping rain Wednesday on Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala, and thousands of evacuees anxiously stayed away from shaky hillside slums and swollen rivers.

In San Pedro Sula, in northern Honduras, one shantytown filled with water after a river burst its bank. Police rode bulldozers to evacuate slum dwellers from water that was waist-deep and rising, but many refused to leave, fearing their remaining possessions would be stolen.

David Serato, 42, left. "Life is more important than personal belongings," he said. "If I stayed, I would die."

Many had feared a repeat of the 1998 nightmare of Hurricane Mitch, which stalled over Central America for days, causing floods and mudslides that killed nearly 11,000 people and left more than 8,000 missing.

On Mexico's western coast, Henriette moved across the Gulf of California, and at 5 a.m. EDT, its center was located over the state of Sonora in Mexico, about 400 miles southwest of El Paso, Texas, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Its center later made its second landfall near the Mexican city of Guaymas in Sonora, said Jack Beven, a specialist with the Miami-based center. Hours later the Henriette was downgraded to a tropical depression as it moved inland and its sustained winds dropped to 35 mph.

Schools and ports were closed and people evacuated from low-lying areas, but the storm was expected to weaken quickly over the desert before dumping a few inches of rain Thursday on New Mexico.

Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
1709. F1or1d1an
1:05 PM GMT on September 06, 2007
Posted By: saveabeagle at 12:51 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.

Is that anything to worry about since it's been hanging since late yesterday afternoon?

Thanks!


SaveACenter, er I mean SaveABeagle...

It would probably go away if you would quit curing meat by hanging it from the eaves of your back porch...

Seriously - nothing to see in the GOM at the moment - conditions aren't even remotely favorable, except in the BOC (and then only marginally there)...

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.