Felix a major threat to Central America; new disturbance could develop
Tropical Storm Felix lashed the islands of Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines with winds near tropical storm force and torrential rains this morning. Visible satellite loops show that Felix is a small storm, but is steadily expanding in size and growing more organized. Low level spiral bands have formed on the eastern side, and there is one respectable upper-level outflow jet that has formed to the storm's north. Dry air on the northwest side of Felix continues to hamper its intensification, but the storm is small enough that dry air drawn in from the north coast of South America has not been a problem.
Felix is a major danger to Central America
The latest GFDL model forecasts that Felix will intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize Wednesday. The SHIPS intensity model is more aggressive, making Felix a Category 3 hurricane. Given that the environment in the Caribbean is much the same as we saw for Dean, I think we can expect a steady intensification of Felix to a Category 2 or 3 storm when it approaches the Honduras/Nicaragua border Monday night. On the current projected track of Felix, it would pass just north of the coast of Honduras, which would be an extremely dangerous situation for that country. Hurricane Fifi of 1974 passed along the north coast of Honduras in 1974 as a Category 2 hurricane (Figure 1), and dumped up to 24 inches of rain on the mountainous country. The resulting landslides and floods killed an estimated 8,000 people--the fourth deadliest hurricane disaster in the Atlantic basin. There is one important difference between Fifi and Felix--Fifi was moving slower, about 11 mph, Felix is expected to move past Honduras at about 17 mph, so will not linger as long to dump heavy rains. Even so, Felix's rains could reach 10-15 inches over Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Belize. Officials in those nations need to prepare now for the possibility that Felix could bring a major flooding disaster to their nations.
Figure 1. Track of Hurricane Fifi of 1974, which killed 8000 people in Central America. Fifi was the fourth deadliest hurricane in Atlantic history.
Felix's threat to other locales
Felix should being winds of tropical storm force to Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao as it passes to the north. These islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela, will also get heavy rains, but Felix should not cause any serious wind damage or floods in those areas. The ridge of high pressure that is steering Felix to the west is strong enough that a northward deviation of the storm into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands is unlikely. If Felix is going to deviate from the projected NHC forecast the next two days, I think a southward deviation into Nicaragua is more likely.
If Felix does stay far enough north to make it into the Western Caribbean on Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a trough of low pressure forecast to swing north of the region that could turn Felix on a more northwesterly track into the Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on this, and we'll have to wait and see. Those of you planning on being in Cancun or Cozumel on Wednesday should pay close attention to Felix.
The NOAA jet's first flight will be Sunday morning.
Links to follow today:
Aruba radar
Current conditions on Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao
98L
A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has developed a closed circulation and some heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. This disturbance has been labeled "98L" by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under about 20 knots of winds shear from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast, but this shear is forecast to gradually slacken over the next few days, and should be below 10 knots by Monday night, and under 5 knots by Wednesday. 98L is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Monday. The 12Z (8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both develop 98L into a tropical storm, but keep it below hurricane strength. The storm will be approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday or Thursday. Given 98L's more northerly starting location, it may eventually affect Puerto Rico.
My next update will be Sunday by noon EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Did that ULL really just form?
yes it did at arong 6 am when i first posted it and the spin is now stronger . again ill say it wasnt there at 5 am or 530 am
although 98L is devoid of convedtion it still has a robust circulation which gives the indication that as soon as it gets into the favourable area of low shear , then it ia expected ti slowly organise. it is atill moving soueh west and will find itself in a position to threatened the central windwards once again. it is expscted to move west for the next five days
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
244 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 02 2007 - 00Z TUE SEP 04 2007
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST TO LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WILL REMAIN A STRONG FOCUS FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS...ACROSS THE GULF
STATES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS
AND POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST. GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE GULF STATES INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS.
Interactive Short Range Product Browser
Southwest N Atlantic (Yesterday)
Water vapour imagery is hinting a weak cyclonic upper circulation near 24N/76W producing and enhancing scattered showers over the islands of Cuba and the Bahamas.
A pre frontal surface trough is analysed from 32N/67W to 40N/60W. Widespread showers are within 300 nm ahead of this trough over the Atlantic. Some of this activity is no doubtfully enhanced by upper diffluence between an high in the southwest Atlantic and an upper low in the central Atlantic with some of this activity spreading as for south as 20N.
Looks like I missed the excitement overnight. Felix did, as we were contemplating in here, do some rapid intensification.
Only good thing for ABC Islands is that this is still a very small circulation. I wonder how much it will expand today . . .
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 2/0954Z
B. 12 DEG 53 MIN N
68 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2921 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 095 DEG 90 KT
G. 005 DEG 15 NM
H. EXTRAP 977 MB
I. 14 C/3064 M
J. 15 C/3055 M
K. 9 C/NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0706A FELIX OB 06 AL062007
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 0951
MAX SFMR WINDS 75 KT NE QUAD 0951Z
mb are down too 977mb from 987mbs
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB
I note that 98l is back to its former low-key self. The circulation still seems to be there, so I wouldn't rule it out for now. May be just biding its time . . .
That vigorous wave over W Africa we were looking at yesterday looks like it has poofed as it came off the coast. Looks like it came off pretty high, too. Dunno if we will see anything out of that.
100 mph
984 mb
Might be a major hurricane soon.
Learner
Good morning! I see that Felix intensified, as of the 5am advisory. I don't believe it!
100 mph
984 mb
Might be a major hurricane soon
make that 977mb not 984mb
URNT12 KWBC 021005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 2/0954Z
B. 12 DEG 53 MIN N
68 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2921 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 095 DEG 90 KT
G. 005 DEG 15 NM
H. EXTRAP 977 MB
I. 14 C/3064 M
J. 15 C/3055 M
K. 9 C/NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0706A FELIX OB 06 AL062007
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 0951MAX SFMR WINDS 75 KT NE QUAD 0951Z
i have a weird feling that felix is an annular hurricae....
do you agree?
TSWS
i have a weird feling that felix is an annular hurricae....
do you agree?
no the eye is too small much too small
Taz-Do you think we have a pinhole eye yet
Having said that, Felix looks to be the strongest hurricane to have impacted this particular area for a very long time.
wow 100mph winds 984mb pressure, and I see the vortex message shows 977mb, seems felix is rapidly strenghtening
and gfdl thinking that felix is a tropical depression by now again!
Note the winds....
"Observed at: Aruba, AW
Elevation: 108 ft
[Light Rain]
79 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NW
Pressure: 29.80 in (Steady)
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 10000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 30000 ft
(Above Ground Level)"
do you still think 98l is going to develop, e236
Yes, as the NHC said, the circulation is well defined and any flaring of convection around and over that center, would probably make it a tropical depression. shear is only 10kts ahead of it so it still has good potential
Storm Name:
FELIX
Observation Time:
Sep 2 - 11:09 UTC
Agency & Flight:
KWBC NOAA3
Altitude of Plane:
10036 feet
Wind Direction:
360°
Wind Speed:
23 knots
Temperature:
9°C
Dewpoint:
3°C
this is the latest reading
when is it going to reach the low shear environment? its obviously getting sheared now.
Maybe later today
Posted By: CFL at 11:27 AM GMT on September 02, 2007.
when is it going to reach the low shear environment? its obviously getting sheared now.
Maybe later today
is this the renmants of 98l or hurricane felix?
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