Tropical Depression Six forms; Henrietta lashes the Pacific coast of Mexico
The Hurricane Hunters have reported back from the tropical wave about 200 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands and found a closed circulation and 35 mph winds, good enough to justify naming this system Tropical Depression Six. This storm has the potential to become a hurricane in the Caribbean by Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show a considerable improvement in organization occurred today, with low level spiral bands wrapping around the center of circulation, and upper level outflow now visible on both the north and south sides.
Water vapor satellite loops show the presence of a large amount of dry air to the north of TD 6, but the storm has generated enough thunderstorm activity to moisten the surrounding environment, which should speed development. Wind shear is a favorable 10 knots over TD 6, and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next four days over the storm's expected path through the Caribbean, according to the 18Z SHIPS model. As seen in the latest microwave satellite image from 12:49pm EDT (Figure 1), the heaviest thunderstorm activity is on the south side of the system. Trinidad and Tobago will get the heaviest rains from TD 6, although the northern coast of South America plus the island of Grenada could also see some heavy rains.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of TD 6 taken at 12:49pm EDT 8/31/07. The heaviest rain (red colors) is just east of the island of Tobago. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
Both the 12Z GFDL and the 18Z SHIPS intensity models forecast that TD 6 will intensify into a hurricane by 72 hours from now, as it tracks through the Central Caribbean. The model consensus has a track just north of the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao), then west-northwestward through the Caribbean. By Monday night, most of the models have TD 6 approaching the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The GFDL is further north, taking TD 6 into Belize on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane. The future strength of TD 6 depends critically upon how close it passes to the South American coast over the next two days. The Southeastern Caribbean just north of the South American coast is a climatologically unfavorable region for tropical cyclones, as they tend to pull dry continental air off of South America into their circulations. Many tropical cyclones passing through this region of the Caribbean die or become severely weakened. If TD 6 does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question. However, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the region, and I don't see any troughs of low pressure capable of swinging TD 6 to the north coming.
The next Hurricane Hunter mission will be 8am EDT Saturday. The NOAA jet's first flight will be Sunday morning.
Links to follow today:
Martinique radar
Barbados weather
Trinidad Crown Point weather
Piarco, Trinidad weather
Grenada weather
96L
An area of low pressure ("96L") a few hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts got close to tropical depression status today. However, wind shear from strong upper level westerly winds has almost completely removed all heavy thunderstorm activity from the storm, and 96L has missed its chance to become a tropical depression.
Pacific coast of Mexico at risk from Henriette
Tropical Storm Henriette formed off the Pacific coast of Mexico this morning, and poses a threat to Mexican coast from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta, as well as the Baja Peninsula. Acapulco radar shows that spiral banding around the center has increased today, and visible satellite loops show a rather disorganized system, with the beginnings of some upper-level outflow to the south. Henriette has brought heavy rains and sustained winds of 25 mph to Acapulco today, but the weather there will improve tonight as the storm tracks west-northwest, parallel to the coast. Wind shear is a rather stiff 20 knots over Henriette today, which should keep any development slow. By tomorrow, wind shear should decrease to 10-15 knots, allowing more rapid strengthening. Residents of Manzanillo should be prepared for tropical storm force winds Saturday evening, and the airport there will probably close for a time late Saturday. Puerto Vallarta is further from Henrietta's projected path and more sheltered, and will probably not get tropical storm force winds. Those planning on being in Baja Monday and Tuesday should keep a close eye on Henriette, as hurricane conditions may arrive late Monday.
Links to watch for Henriette
Acapulco radar
Manzanillo, Mexico observations
My next update will be Saturday by noon EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.1 2.2 2.9
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -68.4C Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
I think this scenario is reasonable because it looks like the center and biggest concentrated area of thunderstorm is relocating to the north of the projected path
0z BAMMS tropical models..
start 11.9,59 TD/F
12.1,60
12.4,61 TS/F
12.7,62
13,61
STOP.......
We're the winds organized in the manner of a TS? Link if possible.
No offense or anything, but it's hard to find a COC in any storm on satellite that is under deep convection, unless you are trained, and even then it's hard for people like NHC. If no eye is evident, finding a COC becomes difficult on satellite imagery. IMO
like 4 ducks in a row...
Why do so many people believe that this storm will drive northward INTO A 500MB RIDGE!?!
This ridge doesn't look to be moving anywhere over the next 5 days. Given TD#6's foward speed , by 5 days it'll be into the Central American coast. The only influnce TD#6 will feel from any upper low will be shear, not a significant change in heading.
Link
0z BAMMS tropical models..
I see what you mean.
Link
Only meant this is not set in stone yet
48 Hr GFS 850 mb Winds
You can see the ridge axis north of 20°N in this loop and dry air/subsidence extending westward towards the Bahamas.
Merged Quickscat
I am off for the night, see y'all tomorrow!
FSU Model Page Navigational Tutorial Video
Gameday tomorrow! Woo hooo!
This may be a dumb question, but I'm asking it anyway. What do the waves do while they're over Africa's land? Just rain?
.
.Yes, they do rain, but to the best of my knowledge I believe that the derivation of the term wave is from the Zambezi origin "waaveee", where local legend states that the strongest rains leave a wave goodbye like feature in the western sky.
.
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"There's no such thing as a stupid question, only a stupid answer." Egbert Souse
Right now I'll take all the "WEST" there is to get LOL
My fruit trees are just starting to put out new leaves to replace those burnt off by Dean's salt spray. We sure need a break in the NW Caribbean !
And then there is Jamaica that got hit very hard even in the mountains in the interior 60 miles N of Dean's center. I know of one man who lost his roof all the way in Mandeville which is high up in the middle of that island.
They certainly do not need anything more either
Posted By: Drakoen at 1:46 AM GMT on September 01, 2007.
StormW, what do you think about the track? Seems pretty straight forward for now. A track into central America. I'm not buying the BAMM models yet.
I'm not buying it right now either, but go to that link I posted...the lower and mid layers are the same...that is the 0000Z run tonight. Look directly in front of TD6. SE to NW flow...weakness in the ridge right there to the north.
Yes i see that.
1005mb bobby, 1000mb is for NW pacific
Not true. First, it's NE Pacific, and 2.5 for EPac is 997 mb, not 1000.
Hello Storm. Isnt it past your bedtime??..LOL
Jeez...that's a little harsh isn't it?
You will soon need an assistant to help you stay current with all the forecasts you need to do LOL
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 8:59 PM CDT on August 31, 2007.
Hello Storm. Isnt it past your bedtime??..LOL
Jeez...that's a little harsh isn't it?
Lighten up it was a joke.
31/2345 UTC 11.4N 59.2W T2.5/2.5 06L
11.4 !!
Don't tell me they are coming around to my view that the center is not at 12N LOL
It's imprtant to look at the steering layers in the correct level for the storm's intensity. This is a TD maybe a TS so the steering is still in the 990 hpa and up range and at mid levels??
LOL. Its a joke IKE. Hence the LOL. Storm knows me!! He usually doesn't stay up that late!!
OK...thought you were serious.
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