Disturbance 94L in Central Atlantic; NHC management changes
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (labeled "invest 94L" by NHC this morning) has become a little better organized this morning, and does have the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. Wind shear is a favorable 5-10 knots over 94L, and shear should not be a problem for it over the next few days. The system is not well-organized, with a sloppy, elongated circulation, as seen on last night's QuikSCAT pass. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. The system does have a major impediment to development--the presence of a large, dusty area of dry air surrounding its north side (Figure 1). Water vapor satellite loops of the region don't show any significant moistening of the region around 94L occurring, and this will have to happen before the system can develop into a tropical depression. If the storm can develop a better-organized circulation, it will be able to pump more moisture into the surrounding atmosphere and help itself out. Current visible satellite loops shows that this is not happening at present--the thunderstorm activity associated with 94L is rather weak.
None of the reliable computer models develop 94L. The system should track through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain. I expect that the earliest 94L could become a tropical depression would be Thursday, and it is unlikely the Lesser Antilles would experience anything worse than a 50 mph tropical storm. It is more likely that 94L will still be a tropical disturbance when it passes through the Lesser Antilles.
Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image of the Central Atlantic from 8:15am EDT 8/28/07. The brown colors denote very dry and dusty air from the Saharan Desert.
Honduras disturbance
A westward-moving tropical wave is bringing heavy rains to Honduras and Nicaragua today. Due to its close proximity to land, development of this wave into a tropical depression is not expected. The wave is under 10-15 knots of wind shear. None of the reliable models are predicting that this system will develop.
Computer model update
The UKMET and GFS models are indicating the possible development of a tropical depression by Thursday or Friday off the coast of Africa. There is a large surge of moisture with at least one strong tropical wave embedded in it coming off the coast of Africa this week. This moister air should make a more favorable environment for a tropical depression to form in than the one 94L finds itself in.
Most of the models also predict a low pressure system will develop off the North Carolina coast along an old frontal boundary on Thursday. Such a development may be an ordinary extratropical low pressure system, but could make the transition to a tropical system if the shear drops low enough.
NHC management changes
Acting director Dr. Ed Rappaport of The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will continue on the job until the end of this hurricane season, NOAA management revealed yesterday. Rappaport replaced director Bill Proenza on July 9, following an extraordinary few months of tumult at NHC. Joining the NHC staff on September 4 will be a new interim deputy director--Bill Read, who currently serves as the meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's Houston-Galveston office. Deputy director was the post Rappaport held prior to July 9. Bill Read applied for the directorship of NHC when Max Mayfield retired, but was not awarded the job. His arrival at NHC during the peak of hurricane season will be a welcome addition, as he has considerable experience dealing with hurricane emergencies.
In an apparent effort to follow some of the management changes recommended by the independent review team that performed the snap inspection of NHC in early July (see Attachment 9 of the Senate testimony from July), a new manager of the ten hurricane forecasters has been appointed as well. Rick Knabb, who is one of the six senior hurricane specialists, will be the new manager, and will be Rappaport's backup for TV interviews during hurricane emergencies.
It is still undecided where former director Proenza will wind up, but the chairs of two Senate subcommittees investigating the matter have recommended that Proenza be returned to his former job as head the NWS Southern Region.
Next update
Tomorrow is the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. I'll discuss my experience with blogging about the storm, and give an update on 94L and the rest of the tropics.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No real need to worry, if the system we're watching does develop it will likely only be a tropical depression or maybe a weak tropical storm. Certainly nothing like Dean. Also if the wave that is currently emerging off Africa develops it will be a while before it affects anybody.
What list?
the list I posted a little while before the post asking about the list
When is your latest update "synopsis" going to post?
Infrared Image of wave behind 94L
29/1115 UTC 11.2N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
Elongated trof running SW to NE-BOC to N Central GOMEX worrisome.
UL off MS/LA coast.
Just a caution. Most everything associated w/this area moving west.
29/1145 UTC 31.3N 76.2W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
29/1115 UTC 11.2N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
They both have T numbers...94L appears a little more organized this morning.
Lot's of wait and see out there right now..
Who activated the cyclogenesis switch?
I did I was tired of no activity
Hopefully everything is out to sea:) :):)
Link
h23, being that far north and seeing what the GFS has been showing the last few runs, I think there is a decent chance that Africa wave gets recurved, hopefully....Again though, more wait and see.
Could recurve but my point its latitude is dangerous for long trackers and right its looks good on satelitte imagery for this latitude so far this season.TPC has a 10llmb low attached to the wave.
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 29 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-097
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 30/1500Z
D. 29.0N 76.5W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 31/0200Z
D. 28.0N 76.0W
E. 31/0500Z TO 31/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS REMAINS A THREAT.
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 13N 58W AT 31/1800Z
I thought 95L is no threat?
Adrain,
I thought 95L is no threat?
Even if this is not a threat recon always will fly into systems this close to land and have a chance at developing.
Rememebr Jeff Masters mentioning that the smaller norhtern ice cap could delay the winter. We may need to get out of thinking that hurricane season is mostly September phenominon. Big storms like Wilma in the final week of October may not be as "freak" as they used to be.
the better for what?
the better for development, or the better not to develope?
This is the wave to place close attention in the coming week or so as it already at a dangerous latitude and looks fairly well organized on morning visibles.
ok hurricane23, in that pic you posted, there two blobs, which one is the potential?
the elongated one or the little round one. Because on the EUMETAT the little round one seems to have rotation.
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