Quiet in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on August 26, 2007

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Disorganized thunderstorm activity continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This activity is probably too close to land to develop, as it is expected to move westwards over Mexico over the next day. A westward-moving tropical wave is kicking up some disorganized thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean near the coast of Columbia. This area is under 10-20 knots of wind shear. The NOGAPS model predicts that this disturbance could develop into a tropical depression on Tuesday as it approaches the Nicaragua/Honduras coast. However, the NOGAPS model has been overly aggressive developing tropical cyclones in this portion of the Caribbean this year, and I don't expect this system will develop.

The four reliable forecast models for forecasting the genesis of tropical cyclones are all indicating possibility of a tropical depression forming off the North Carolina coast or off the coast of Africa late this week. Anything that does develop off the Carolina coast is likely to move northeastwards, out to sea. The greater threat to land would be a development off the coast of Africa. While it is currently quiet in the ITCZ region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, I expect this activity to pick up late this week as some strong tropical waves move off the coast of Africa. A new tropical depression in this region 5-8 days from now has about a 40% chance of happening.

Wunderground for dial-up users
I did not post a blog yesterday as promised, since I found myself on dial-up as the result of a particularly nasty line of tornadic thunderstorms that swept through Southeast Michigan on Friday night. I posted a few photos of the damage from an EF-2 tornado that hit Fenton, about 8 miles north of my house. The storms knocked out power and high-speed Internet connectivity to tens of thousands of customers, and I am still without my beloved cable modem two days later. If you're in a similar predicament, or simply aren't interested in seeing all the comments for my blog, you can visit the "wunderground lite" version of my blog at http://www.wund.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html. There is only one ad on the page, and the content is highly stripped down for modem users.

Hurricane Dean damage update
Hurricane Dean hit the Costa Maya Cruise Ship Terminal with full force, and the photos show damage consistent with at least a Category 4 hurricane. Huge chunks of the concrete dock are missing, and it is estimated that this second-busiest cruise ship destination in Mexico will be out of commission for at least six to eight months.

The death toll from Dean now stands at 37, with at least ten deaths now reported from Dean's second Mexican landfall, as a Category 2 hurricane. Remarkably, no deaths have been reported from Dean's landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 5 hurricane.

I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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505. bswigg
2:46 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
New Blog up guys...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 109
504. weatherbrat
2:44 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Taz ~
That's why I made the comment about "hampster spinning his wheel too fast". LOL
503. Tazmanian
2:40 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
thats what i wasing saying to 28 when i look at his blog i am not going to do him poll and is spelling needs some work on



talk about my spelling this look at hurricanehamster spelling no one cant read what he is saying
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
502. catastropheadjuster
2:39 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
I'm really not trying to start nothing but I really thought all the kids had went back to school by know.I know here in Alabama they have.
So it seems like we might get something to watch. I see where PR but up that image does it look like the highs will stay that way? and it so wouldn't just about all the storms be fish ones?
Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3671
500. weatherbrat
2:38 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Thanks, Ike!
498. IKE
2:37 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
From the Mobile,AL. extended discussion...

"Long term (tuesday through sunday)...the broad 500 mb high over the
southeast states retreats westward through Thursday as a longwave
trough evolves over the eastern states. The upper trough weakens into
the weekend as Canadian energy ejects out of trough...but lingers over
the region as several lesser shortwaves move from the plains and
across the eastern states. These latter features develop a series
of surface lows which trek northeastward across the far eastern
states and gradually bring a weak front into the forecast area by
Friday. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) and Gem all move a tropical wave into the
Gulf by Friday as well with subtle differences in timing. The GFS
develops a surface low on the tail end of the weak front over the
area which settles into the marine area. Will need to monitor this
in subsequent shifts."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
497. IKE
2:35 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
The 06Z GFS..Link

The new run will come out in about an hour.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
496. weatherbrat
2:33 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Thanks Ike...do you have a link to that model?
495. weatherbrat
2:32 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Nash ~

Maybe the hamster has been spinning his wheel a little too fast!!!
494. IKE
2:31 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Posted By: weatherbrat at 9:30 AM CDT on August 27, 2007.
The area around 13N,77W (Southwestern Caribbean); the area of convection at 10N,35W; and the wave that has just emerged off Africa at around 15N, 20W. But really the entire Atlantic needs watching.

My opinion only....but I think 13N/77W may not develop before it moves over land. I do agree on 10N/35W, I think this is something we need to watch.

What is the flare up in the GOM? At approximately 25N/87W? Is this at the tail end of a front? Looks like maybe just a rain event maybe moving N into the FL panhandle. They sure could use the rain. But not heavy training!


The GFS has been consistent with development of some sort in the NE GOM toward the end of the week.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
493. weatherbrat
2:30 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
The area around 13N,77W (Southwestern Caribbean); the area of convection at 10N,35W; and the wave that has just emerged off Africa at around 15N, 20W. But really the entire Atlantic needs watching.

My opinion only....but I think 13N/77W may not develop before it moves over land. I do agree on 10N/35W, I think this is something we need to watch.

What is the flare up in the GOM? At approximately 25N/87W? Is this at the tail end of a front? Looks like maybe just a rain event maybe moving N into the FL panhandle. They sure could use the rain. But not heavy training!
492. nash28
2:26 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
hurricanehamster- Huh???

Huh????

Huh????
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
491. philliesrock
2:23 PM GMT on August 27, 2007


This is showing up a lot on the long-range GFS. It shows a tropical system form, and go north of the islands. A high builds in on the East Coast, and the Bermuda High moves out of the way to create a path for this Felix to recurve.
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
489. surfmom
2:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Off to work BBL
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
488. TerraNova
2:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
What coordinates are you particularly interested in watching? I want to see if they are they same ones that I have been watching.

93L I beleive is too close to land for any tropical depression to form (if not already over it).

I'm watching three areas:

The area around 13N,77W (Southwestern Caribbean); the area of convection at 10N,35W; and the wave that has just emerged off Africa at around 15N, 20W. But really the entire Atlantic needs watching.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
487. weathers4me
2:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Something about this season gives me a bad feeling about "the big one" impacting a US coast. The conditions are near perfect and ripe but not a hyperactive season in terms of prev years. The steering patterns are setting up for the push to the West. Stay tuned folks keep your guards up. Things are going to get cranked up here soon for the peak season.
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
485. nash28
2:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Huh??

20 named storms is an aberration in and of itself. All of them being hurricanes is even more of a stretch.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
484. surfmom
2:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
HurricanHamster, clearly you have not learned the lesson --be careful for what you wish for-- Mother Nature has big ears and she is not always selective as to which humans she is tossing about.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
479. Comatose
2:08 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Happy Birthday StormW!
478. weatherbrat
2:08 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
TerraNova,

What coordinates are you particularly interested in watching? I want to see if they are they same ones that I have been watching.
477. nash28
2:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Hurricanehamster--

Define "major 1".

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
476. hurricanehamster
2:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
i really think this seasons not going to be a major 1!

poll on me blog please answer
475. weatherbrat
2:04 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Thanks for the info TerraNova. I'm keeping my eyes focused.

Happy Birthday StormW!!!
473. catastropheadjuster
2:01 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
StormW: Happy Birthday. I hope you have a wonderful day.
Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3671
471. TerraNova
2:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
What have the models done over the weekend? Any show signs of development in the near future?

GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and CMC are showing something off the east coast in the next few days. The steering currents would probably push it out to open waters; but if something develops closer to land it could affect somebody.

The GFS puts a low pressure system in the Gulf late this week from the tail of of a front.

Also the Central Atlantic needs to be watched as there are a whole bunch of systems in there.

The GFS also develops a system off the coast of Africa in about 150 hours (it's a bit far out but all these waves merit watching).
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
470. weatherbrat
1:54 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Good Morning Everyone,

Some interesting areas to watch. Looks like we had a few days of calm before the storm(s).

What have the models done over the weekend? Any show signs of development in the near future?
467. TheCaneWhisperer
1:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Morning All!

Looks like things are heating back up!

Terranova, Waves coming off Africa have to transition just like anything else. Waters are cooler and shear is usually higher right at the coast. Usually takes about 2 days to make the transition. There have been instances where they develop right away but, not that often.
463. surfmom
1:32 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Good AM! WOW, checking in b/4 I go to work at the Polo barns today. Looks like Mother Nature put the Hurricane Soup Pot on & she's getting busy cooking up a storm or two. I don't know if this is the kind of B-day present StormW had in mind. But I guess we will all get to rock and roll. Wishing we continue these evening showers - the constant heat with no rain was really starting to stress out the horses and there is increase of respiratory problems in some of the older horses.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
462. Bobbyweather
1:29 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
I think an invest is likely later this morning or early afternoon.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
461. TerraNova
1:28 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Even this little swirl is still hanging around and quietly moving W

It looks like it has a little pulse moving off to the east in the visible loop. I don't see a clear circulation though. It flared up last night and has managed to hold convection.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
460. kmanislander
1:24 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Off to work now but will check in later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15807
459. moonlightcowboy
1:23 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
...will do, K'man, could be a busy week. For those counting the tropics down and out, thing could change on a dime.

...appreciate your good eye, K'man, thanks!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29598
458. kmanislander
1:21 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
The low in the S Caribbean has only moved one degree W in 24 hrs but seems destined to go ashore in Nicaragua unless the steering changes
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15807
457. kmanislander
1:21 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Hi MLC

Looks like several small but potentially troublesome areas lurking everywhere. If conditions were to suddenly improve like they did in 05 we could see more than one of these areas fire up at the same time.

Keep your fingers crossed that does not happen. It would not take much as the surface lows are already there
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15807
456. moonlightcowboy
1:18 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Morning, K'man...see you've got those "spotter" eyes working this morning! -- something's bound to rev up, prolly out of the eAtl I think.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29598
455. kmanislander
1:16 PM GMT on August 27, 2007
Even this little swirl is still hanging around and quietly moving W

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15807

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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