Quiet in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on August 26, 2007

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Disorganized thunderstorm activity continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This activity is probably too close to land to develop, as it is expected to move westwards over Mexico over the next day. A westward-moving tropical wave is kicking up some disorganized thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean near the coast of Columbia. This area is under 10-20 knots of wind shear. The NOGAPS model predicts that this disturbance could develop into a tropical depression on Tuesday as it approaches the Nicaragua/Honduras coast. However, the NOGAPS model has been overly aggressive developing tropical cyclones in this portion of the Caribbean this year, and I don't expect this system will develop.

The four reliable forecast models for forecasting the genesis of tropical cyclones are all indicating possibility of a tropical depression forming off the North Carolina coast or off the coast of Africa late this week. Anything that does develop off the Carolina coast is likely to move northeastwards, out to sea. The greater threat to land would be a development off the coast of Africa. While it is currently quiet in the ITCZ region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, I expect this activity to pick up late this week as some strong tropical waves move off the coast of Africa. A new tropical depression in this region 5-8 days from now has about a 40% chance of happening.

Wunderground for dial-up users
I did not post a blog yesterday as promised, since I found myself on dial-up as the result of a particularly nasty line of tornadic thunderstorms that swept through Southeast Michigan on Friday night. I posted a few photos of the damage from an EF-2 tornado that hit Fenton, about 8 miles north of my house. The storms knocked out power and high-speed Internet connectivity to tens of thousands of customers, and I am still without my beloved cable modem two days later. If you're in a similar predicament, or simply aren't interested in seeing all the comments for my blog, you can visit the "wunderground lite" version of my blog at http://www.wund.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html. There is only one ad on the page, and the content is highly stripped down for modem users.

Hurricane Dean damage update
Hurricane Dean hit the Costa Maya Cruise Ship Terminal with full force, and the photos show damage consistent with at least a Category 4 hurricane. Huge chunks of the concrete dock are missing, and it is estimated that this second-busiest cruise ship destination in Mexico will be out of commission for at least six to eight months.

The death toll from Dean now stands at 37, with at least ten deaths now reported from Dean's second Mexican landfall, as a Category 2 hurricane. Remarkably, no deaths have been reported from Dean's landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 5 hurricane.

I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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352. extreme236
1:25 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
so it appears 93L has stalled a bit. Perhaps allows it a bit more time, but I'm not sure if it will help much. depends on if that stalled motion continues
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
343. philliesrock
9:20 PM EDT on August 26, 2007
When the tropics are quiet, the fighting begins...
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341. strangesights
1:14 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Yeap we haven't had a cat 5 in a week now ... guess the season is a bust ... ;-)

Beware of the calm before the storm ...

Be vigilant, be scientific, be prepared, and prayers for all, ...
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334. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:13 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
lol
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328. mississippiwx23
12:49 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
I am having a tough time seeing the rain bands. But you say the quickSCAT is out...I cant seem to find it.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
327. TerraNova
8:41 PM EDT on August 26, 2007
TRMM precipitation scans for 93L:

Latest radar scan

Estimated accumulated rainfall

And the QuickSCAT's NRCS pass shows what looks like rainbands if you look closely:

Link
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326. TerraNova
8:27 PM EDT on August 26, 2007
Rainbow images can be misleading, makes the convection look stronger than it actually is, use the AVN image if you want a better idea

So it needs a lot more convective activity. It has a real well defined cirulation (although not down to the surface as of yet). It also looked impressive on the last visible image. Water Vapor imagery shows no dry air anywhere near the disturbance. Shear isn't exactly optimal (10-20 knots) but it looks like it may be on the decrease.

ssd
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325. mississippiwx23
12:35 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
That position is 1 degree north with no movement west at all. If that continues to hold, it will have more time to strengthen over the next few hours.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
324. mississippiwx23
12:33 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
22.0N 96.7W T1.0/1.0 at 23:45
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
323. mississippiwx23
12:31 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Those are some nasty storms in North Dakota, moving right towards Grafton. Funnel clouds spotted already. Hopefully nothing touches down, or if it does, it misses the city and goes through farm fields.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
322. mississippiwx23
12:27 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Here is what I was waiting for:

400 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


At least they put out a discussion that the conditions are favourable for a storm to form in Pacific now.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
321. mississippiwx23
12:21 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Thanks extreme
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
320. extreme236
12:21 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
mississippi, I posted it just below your post. Probably already saw that though...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
319. mississippiwx23
12:18 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
extreme236,

Where can you get the Dvorak information?
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
318. extreme236
12:18 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Link

Dvorak intensity and position link
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
317. extreme236
12:17 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Models are forecasting about 2 storms this week, so I am looking toward a active week. I will eat my words if I am wrong as well
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
316. extreme236
12:15 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 12:15 AM GMT on August 27, 2007.

holy moly this is what the season has come to.an invest about to go over land in a matter of hours is all the action in the tropics. and september is around the corner to top it all off. MAYBE just maybe 2006 will seem like an active season when 2007 is over. lol


Dont start that again 555 lol. We are above average right now, and if you recall other la nina seasons, they have late seasons that are more active
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
315. wederwatcher555
12:15 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
ill eat my words if there is a cane in the next two weeks. peace on earth.
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314. wederwatcher555
12:14 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
holy moly this is what the season has come to.an invest about to go over land in a matter of hours is all the action in the tropics. and september is around the corner to top it all off. MAYBE just maybe 2006 will seem like an active season when 2007 is over. lol
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313. Drakoen
12:14 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:00 AM GMT on August 27, 2007.

TCC you need to stop apologizing for things you are just going to do again and again

stop being a drama queen and a know it all


I second that notion.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31586
312. fire831rescue
12:12 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
OK, YA'LL. NO MORE BLOB JOKES FOR NOW. IT APPEARS YA'LL HAVE SOME NEWS ABOUT A COUPLE OF LOWS OUT THERE TO KEEPS AN EYE ON. BUSINESS AS USUAL... HAPPY HUNTING... LOL.
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311. mississippiwx23
12:12 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Nice supercells in North Dakota.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
310. mississippiwx23
12:10 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
Where can you get the Dvorak information extreme236? (Add another link to my website whenever I get it put together)
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
309. KoritheMan
12:09 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
I hope 93L develops, not to hurt people, but to show Amystery he/she is not psychic, and needs to stop downcasting just to annoy people.
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308. extreme236
12:08 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
ugh, Im still waiting for dvorak estimates to come out on 93L, it should have been out about 20 minutes ago
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
307. extreme236
12:06 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
shear maps seem to show shear down to 5-15kts over the caribbean disturbance, so we might get some development out of it
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
306. mississippiwx23
12:01 AM GMT on August 27, 2007
My guess is no, but hey, we dont have to wait very long.

As for the caribbean system...it has lost a lot of convection recently. The sat picture you are using makes it look a lot more impressive than it really is at the moment. Maybe if we can get some more convection tonight, but it doesnt look very strong at the moment. It would be nice to see the QS from that region.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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