Threat to New Orleans grows

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:36 PM GMT on August 26, 2005

Share this Blog
0
+

Latest compter model runs have shifted significantly west in the past six hours, and the threat of a strike on New Orleans by Katrina as a major hurricane has grown. The official NHC forecast is now 170 miles west of where it was at 11am, and still is to the east of the consensus model guidance. It would be no surprise if later advisories shift the forecast track even further west and put Katrina over New Orleans. Until Katrina makes its northward turn, I would cast a very doubtful eye on the model predictions of Katrina's track. So much for the model prediction being high confidence, as I was surmising at 8am this morning! Recurvature is a difficult situation to forecast correctly.

The pressure of Katrina has continued to slowly drop, to 965mb. Dry air on the northwest side of the hurricane has interfered with the strengthening process, and may continue to do so over the next day. I still expect Katrina to attain Category 3 status Saturday, but Category 4 is looking less likely due to the dry air to the north. As one can see from the latest long range radar out of Key West, the northwest side of the eyewall is fragmented.

Some fairly prodigious rain amounts fell in the Miami area today. Homestead south of Miami measured 13.2 inches, and isolated amounts of 15 - 20 inches were observed between Homestead and Miami. The 7.55 inches at Key West was its 10th heaviest rainy day in history.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 993 - 943

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

993. Hawkeyewx
1:22 AM CDT on August 27, 2005
The recon guys do say in the report that the eyewall is still partially open just like it has been all day so that likely indicated there is still a little dry air in there. It should continue to slowly get mixed out overnight and through the day tomorrow. If this thing can get to 950 mb with dry air still in the core just think what it might do later on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
992. 53rdWeatherRECON
6:20 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
I just live for imagesLink

The diferent colors/frequency's are phenomenal
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
991. CFLweather
6:21 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
I don't want to scare anyone, but if this is nearing cat 4 right now, and nothing is going to weaken it, I'm starting to think its inevitable to have a huge cat 5 out of this. Conditions continue to get better for development the next 2 days as it moves north over crazy warm water.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
990. leftyy420
6:22 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
plus they have not beem into the ne quadrant yet
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
989. leftyy420
6:20 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
i think they willfind lot higher wind in the southern quadrants. plus it takes time to drop the winds from the pressure so she is obviusly in the middle of a rapid stregthening cycle
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
988. leftyy420
6:20 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
recon i was with u man and i knew the estimate was off but damn 950
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
987. Hawkeyewx
1:16 AM CDT on August 27, 2005
Yes, that is about as big of an estimation error as you'll see out of the NHC... 963 vs. 950

Strangely, the thermal gradient across the eyewall has gone from 9C earlier to only 3C now. Also, although they have only been in the nw quadrant so far, 91 kts is the best wind they could find there. With a pressure of 950 mb one might expect considerably higher wind. Usually 950 would be a high end cat 3 storm. I guess the dry air has not completely been mixed out of the core so it is still holding the wind down somewhat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
986. CFLweather
6:15 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
New report from recon aircraft puts central pressure at around 950mb, thats a 13 point drop in about 3-4 hours. At this rate, with the non-existant shear, and the DEEP warm water will definately put this at cat 4 soon. We may even see a cat 5 out of this.

Those that are on the Gulf Coast need to prepare, this is the real deal, not a cat 1 like we saw Thursday. Please be safe and use common sense, this will be a monster of a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
985. leftyy420
6:17 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
omg 950 ur kidding me. damn she will be a monster
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
984. Halon056
2:18 AM EDT on August 27, 2005
Sounds like we got us a player!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
983. 53rdWeatherRECON
6:16 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
I told everyone it was droping right through the 965,964,963 but I would not have guessed 950! O.M.G
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
982. UFGATORDON
6:11 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
The hurricane destorys the offshore oil port near NO, and the Us runs out of gas and has extreme trouble getting any more in with the port closed. Starts a war in Saudi Arabia and ends up trying to buy oil from russia only to be outbid by the chinese, all of this grinds the US economy to a Hault all because of 1 cat 4 storm to hit NO! I guess we will see if hollywood can predict the future, lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
981. 53rdWeatherRECON
6:14 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
WOW!!! 950 that is borderline CAT4 already
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
980. Canenut
6:14 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
I guess they estimated poorly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
979. Hawkeyewx
1:10 AM CDT on August 27, 2005
Holy crap, 950 mb!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
978. Halon056
2:12 AM EDT on August 27, 2005
Heres a darn good satellite shot gives ya a good idea of what is happening with the storm and the enviro around it :)Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
977. Canenut
6:13 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
URNT12 KNHC 270612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/05:53:30Z
B. 24 deg 23 min N
083 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2673 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 048 deg 091 kt
G. 325 deg 009 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 14 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3040 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNW
M. E06/20/15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1212A KATRINA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NW QUAD 05:50:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 325 / 9NM
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
976. 53rdWeatherRECON
6:10 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
Well I guess that'd be today.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
975. drillpipe
5:58 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
Guys im retired eng. w/CONOCO inc....been there for over 35 yrs..im an expert on evacs in the gulf and a damage expert to weather inflicted structures.........i know this could be a hammer to people in the future and more jobs in the gulf to repair to bring it back to norm...CAT 4 in the MP area could be bad for over a 200 mile east/west perimeter.......remember some of structures are 40YO..and have been providing oil for that time........gas .55 cents per gal time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
974. 53rdWeatherRECON
5:58 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
I saw part of that FX movie. My wife didn't like it. But did catch part. I cannot believe that is is 2:00am and I am still taking peaks at her. For some reason she's got me wired. CAT 4 by tomorrow sound unrealistic to anyone?
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
973. Seawall
6:07 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
I think the forecast into NOLA/Mississippi was based on a gradual turn to the west, then NW tonight. not tomorrow. Jeez, I'm getting a tad worried here, sitting on the SW Louisiana Gulf Coast. Next thing ya know, they will be mentioning Port Arthur, Cameron, and Galveston.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
972. MSY68
6:07 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
means i might have to leave my car behind and fly the family out...if this thing get bad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
970. jeff14photos
11:02 PM PDT on August 26, 2005
thats ok lefty i understand sry
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
969. MSY68
6:06 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
thanks Selu...just not what i wanted to hear
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
968. leftyy420
6:05 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
i figure when we get cthe vortex message sge will be alot stronger. the 2am adv was a estimate
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
967. Selu
1:04 AM CDT on August 27, 2005
MSY--just got off the phone with three major chains. That's the info they gave me.

Member Since: February 5, 2004 Posts: 7 Comments: 312
966. UFGATORDON
6:02 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
Im not at all disagreing that it will turn it just is runing out of real estate with out hitting some land if it moves further south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
965. leftyy420
6:03 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
see i don't think most people read the advisories. they tell you alotmore than a forcast map
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
964. raindancer
6:03 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
G'night all -- see you on the morning show... Think Katrina will be in the Yucatan by then? =:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
962. leftyy420
6:02 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
winds now 110 mph presuure 963 mb
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
961. Canenut
6:02 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
960. raindancer
6:02 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
New update is out; slight increase in speed; slight lowering of pressure...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
959. caneforecaster
5:59 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
They aren't showing the WSW on their forecast track for some reason, but if you read the advisories they are saying the motion will continue for a bit longer..(btw, the models are also indicating such movement. I personally haven't been expecting the turn until tomorrow morning or a bit thereafter)
958. raindancer
6:01 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
Aaagh, yes - even more ambiguous... Sometime between now and perhaps Saturday - we think the storm will turn.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
957. UFGATORDON
5:58 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
But I think for those of US outside of the affected area the oil/gas probelem is definitly going to be the biggest concern. With gas so high allready a major shut down in the gulf would be a huge blow to the national economy if gas climbs a dollar or more becuase of the storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
956. Seawall
6:00 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
And, look at the water temps that katrina is moving into....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
955. Hawkeyewx
12:57 AM CDT on August 27, 2005
There should be a new recon report pretty soon because 40 minutes ago the plane was near the nw edge of the CDO headed into the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
954. leftyy420
6:00 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
i don;t think it would take as much of an increase to casue problems. if gas hit 4-5 dollars a gallon people would riot
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
953. MSY68
6:00 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
dont tell me that Selu...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
952. Seawall
5:57 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
I thought it was odd, the hurricane moving south of west, there was never a forecast of that; only west, then NW. And, I think for every hour the storm moves south of west, that means a more westardly shift for eventual landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
951. leftyy420
5:59 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
no it doesn;t sorry here is what they said at 11pm tonight

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
950. Selu
12:55 AM CDT on August 27, 2005
No hotels in Mississippi are available south of Oxford, MS.

The closest Holiday Inn available to the west is in Houston, Texas.

Anyone who hasn't booked reservations yet who wants to travel north had better plan on staying in Tennessee.
Member Since: February 5, 2004 Posts: 7 Comments: 312
949. NativeTx
5:56 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
Lefty - you bet I watched it. I watch all those shows, guess I'm hoping to get ideas to cope with those scenarios. It's getting so I can't afford gasoline now, and the associated increases because of it. You know it used to be health insurance that ate away my raise - now I guess it's going to be gasoline. Don't you just love getting a 3% raise, but your cost of living has gone up 25%????

I certainly hope the predictions in that movie don't come true!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
948. raindancer
5:58 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
If you'd been screwing up for 24 hours, wouldn't you finally give in and see WSW for 12 to 24 hours (ambiguous), too?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
947. Halon056
1:57 AM EDT on August 27, 2005
hmmm no reply if this thing continues to the south that means all bets are off doesnt it???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
946. ed2800
5:55 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
Thanks MSY..iv been thru 4 of these in 11 months...getting shell shocked.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
945. UFGATORDON
5:55 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
Yeah the movie started off a huge chain of events with a Cat 4 landfall in NO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
944. leftyy420
5:56 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
at 11 they said a sw or wsw motionf for the next 12-24 hors would be expected
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
943. Seawall
5:53 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
MSY is indeed the id for NOLA airpoint. It was Moissoint Field, currently known as Louis Armstrong Airport.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 993 - 943

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
36 °F
Light Rain

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley