Latest compter model runs have shifted significantly west in the past six hours, and the threat of a strike on New Orleans by Katrina as a major hurricane has grown. The official NHC forecast is now 170 miles west of where it was at 11am, and still is to the east of the consensus model guidance. It would be no surprise if later advisories shift the forecast track even further west and put Katrina over New Orleans. Until Katrina makes its northward turn, I would cast a very doubtful eye on the model predictions of Katrina's track. So much for the model prediction being high confidence, as I was surmising at 8am this morning! Recurvature is a difficult situation to forecast correctly.
The pressure of Katrina has continued to slowly drop, to 965mb. Dry air on the northwest side of the hurricane has interfered with the strengthening process, and may continue to do so over the next day. I still expect Katrina to attain Category 3 status Saturday, but Category 4 is looking less likely due to the dry air to the north. As one can see from the latest long range radar out of Key West, the northwest side of the eyewall is fragmented.
Some fairly prodigious rain amounts fell in the Miami area today. Homestead south of Miami measured 13.2 inches, and isolated amounts of 15 - 20 inches were observed between Homestead and Miami. The 7.55 inches at Key West was its 10th heaviest rainy day in history.
Jeff Masters
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2) She will cross the land near the mouth of the Mississippi
3) A possible eye replacement cycle
4) Past storm's history
And Gulf, if they put your office on the 14th floor, there's something they're not telling you because the rest of your colleagues are much higher up in the building.
Link
Guys, as bad as the 18z GFS was the 0z GFS is even worse. It now predicts a monster hurricane, the strongest I have ever seen the GFS predict, over New Orleans at noon on Monday with absolutely perfect upper level wind conditions as it moves inland.
I have never seen you like this Hawk. whats up???
Here is the LINK TO IT......
Thanks for any input.
Also, what's the progress of the trof? Is it getting anywhere near close enough to bring about a turn yet?
I am here to learn as well, but I will give an opinion about your concern.
It will not be a mistake to make reservations somewhere and plan to leave. You might make a big mistake if you don't.
Your part of the city is beautiful.
I heard that the 'thunder reef' incident was human error, not storm related...what do you think?
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