Dean charges towards Jamaica; Erin returns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2007

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Hurricane Dean continues to pound Haiti and the Dominican Republic with high winds and heavy rain, and is headed for a very close encounter with Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Early this morning, winds at Barahona on the southernmost point of land of the Dominican Republic hit 52 mph, gusting to 104 mph. Sustained hurricane force winds are expected to remain well south of both Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but a major spiral band has brought extremely heavy rain to the south portion of both countries.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Dean taken at 7:17am EDT Sunday August 19. Think of this as a weather radar in space--the red areas show where the most intense thunderstorms in the spiral bands and eyewall are occurring. Note the incomplete double ring of echoes around the dark blue eye. Dean has two eyewalls, concentric around each other.

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Jamaica is already receiving high winds and heavy rain from an outer spiral band. How bad will it get? The big question is if the eyewall will move over the island. Unfortunately for Jamaica, Dean has two eyewalls, forming concentric rings (Figure 1). The inner eyewall is 15 miles in diameter, and the outer eyewall is 37 miles in diameter. Winds of Category 3 and 4 strength are blowing in both eyewalls, as seen in the latest data from the SFMR surface winds taken by the Hurricane Hunters. So, Dean's center has to pass more than 25 miles south of Jamaica for the island to be spared the worst of the hurricane. The nation's capital, Kingston, lies on the southern portion of the island, and will be the hardest-hit major city. The tourist city of Montego Bay is on the northern part of Jamaica, and will fare much better.

The same story holds true for the Cayman Islands. Grand Cayman, the southernmost of the islands, it at greatest risk. If Dean passes more than 30 miles south of the island, they will miss seeing the outer eyewall of Dean and will fare relatively well. It's going to be a close call, but it appears that both Jamaica and the Cayman will miss seeing the eyewall of Dean.

Mexico and Texas
Mexico will not be so lucky, and will receive a double beating. Dean is expected to make landfall twice, once near the tourist havens of Cozumel, and then again south of the Texas border. Mexico has to hope that the steering currents will be kind and take Dean south of the most heavily populated regions of the Yucatan. Hurricane Emily of 2005 grazed the southern tip of Cozumel Island as a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, and Dean may follow a similar path. Mexicans can take heart in the fact that Emily caused no deaths in Mexico, and damage was surprisingly light. Most of the tourist regions were relatively unaffected by Emily--it was Wilma two months later that really punished the Mexican Riviera.

As for Texas, it looks right now like only extreme southern Texas near Brownsville needs to worry about Dean. Hurricane Emily hit 90 miles south of Brownsville as a Category 3 hurricane in 2005, and I expect a similar story will unfold for Dean. Emily brought sustained winds of about 40 mph to extreme south Texas, a 4-5 foot storm surge, eight tornadoes, and heavy rains. Damage was minor.

Links to follow:
Radar in Piln, Cuba.
Radar from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Morphed microwave animation.
Kingston, Jamaica observations.
Montego Bay, Jamaica observations.
Grand Cayman observations.

After Dean, what next?
There is an area of disturbed weather that has formed off the northeast coast of South America, 400 miles southest of Barbados. Wind shear is 20-25 knots in this region, and will stay too high to allow develoment for at least the next two days. None of the reliable computer models are suggesting anything will develop over the coming week. The ITCZ region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is relatively quiet.

Erin returns
The remains of Tropical Storm Erin re-intensified this morning into a major storm that slammed central Oklahoma with rains up to seven inches and wind gusts of tropical storm strength. The radar presentation of Erin's remains (Figure 2) looks remarkable tropical storm-like. I've saved a long animation of this "landcane". Numerous flood watches, flood warnings, and severe thunderstorm warnings have been posted for Oklahoma today.


Figure 2. The remains of Tropical Storm Erin re-intensified into a remarkably tropical storm-like cyclone today.

Typhoon Sepat
Typhoon Sepat has moved inland over mainland China, after hitting as a Category 1 storm. Earlier, Sepat hit Taiwan as a Category 3 typhoon. No deaths occurred on Taiwan, but at least 15 died in China--11 of them in a tornado spawned by the typhoon.

I'll have a full update Monday morning, and may have a short update later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Dean South coast Antigua (RHLK)
Hurricane Dean South coast Antigua

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576. chrisucf
7:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2007

This one works for me.
http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/

But it does drop out. Not surprising considering the situation.
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575. extreme236
7:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
wow that meteorologist on cnn really knows what she is talking about. she just explained ERC in as simple terms as possible...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
572. whipster
1:30 PM CST on August 19, 2007
Well GOES is about 30 min slower to update than this one

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
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571. WPBmom
7:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
police station walls and roofs crumbling in Jamaica. Listening to the radio on the computer.
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570. frivolousz22
7:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
moonlight-
those graphics prove what your saying....the storm is clearly exploding in power..because its over those warm warm warm waters.

lets hope it doenst pull the storm any futher north...if that northern eye wall passes over Jam.

it will be total destruction
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569. Crisis57
7:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: NOTSTLN at 7:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

yes... cat5 as it leaves the island.

THCP values are huge.


CMC I dont trust about the storm hitting south FL.

it got me excited about what like 3 storms already in the past?? nothing happened!


it nailed on the formation of Dean correctly but i agree not the best one
568. SouthernLady
2:29 PM CDT on August 19, 2007
This link has about 4 different stations to choose from..Link
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567. Fl30258713
7:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
hahaguy

I have real player set as default media player. Clicked on the winamp link and it plays fine. It has been squiley getting started, but once its on I have had no problems.

Here the direct link you can try:

http://war.str3am.com:7550/
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 988
566. NOTSTLN
7:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
yes... cat5 as it leaves the island.

THCP values are huge.


CMC I dont trust about the storm hitting south FL.

it got me excited about what like 3 storms already in the past?? nothing happened!
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565. moonlightcowboy
7:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007230ca.jpg
CURRENT TCHP VALUES:
Jamaica could see Dean intensify substantially as it approaches its coastline with these high values. It could also cause a thrust in movement, possibly even towards the coastline. DANGEROUS for sure. As Dean moves further wnw, the TCHP values are even higher. Cat 5 status is extremely likely and could shift movement more northerly! Again, JMHO.
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564. Crisis57
7:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: Xion at 7:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Dean's eye looks like it will pass, or brush the SW coast of Jamaica.

It could have been worse.

How so? The northeastern part of the eyewall is the worst part if the storm. The eye for the most part is good.


actually the northern right side of a hurricane is the dirty side of the storm but not the worse, the core of the strongwinds are in the eye so it is somewhat of a good thing it is passing south though it will still be bad the core of those 145mph winds will not hit directly
563. Xion
7:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
If you can get into it without going through the eyewall.

That's why I said "for the most part."

However, then you get both sides of the eyewall, but I guess it is slightly better than all eyewall.
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 726
562. Crisis57
7:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: Johnhopefan at 7:18 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

The CMC is right!!!!!! Hwere it comes!!!!
CMC Mystery System forming!


i have been watching this as well
561. ChuckieTodd
2:26 PM CDT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: Xion at 2:24 PM CDT on August 19, 2007.

The eye for the most part is good.


If you can get into it without going through the eyewall.
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560. frivolousz22
7:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


looks like Dean will just miss Jam.

Erin looks like she is being pulled south by the ULL.

wierd..considering the major models predict Erin to move NE.
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559. C2News
3:23 PM EDT on August 19, 2007
The radio network stalled...
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
558. BahaHurican
3:15 PM EDT on August 19, 2007
Can't believe my power has gone out twice today, when it's sunny, and relatively little wind / no rain. . . .

Sheesh.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23088
557. extreme236
7:23 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
image

Wow. Looks to me like its strengthening

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
556. Spoon
7:23 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Here are the direct links I'm using (if you wish to avoid the javascript and crap on the webpages):
http://war.str3am.com:7560/ (power 106)
http://65.183.11.7:85/broadwave.mp3?src=1&kbps=24&ref= (nationwide)
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555. Xion
7:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Dean's eye looks like it will pass, or brush the SW coast of Jamaica.

It could have been worse.


How so? The northeastern part of the eyewall is the worst part if the storm. The eye for the most part is good.
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 726
554. hahaguy
7:21 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
its not workin for me and im using winamp
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
553. Spoon
7:21 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Okay I see the confusion
http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/
http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/
These are 2 different stations. I'm not sure which one is better at this point.
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552. TXMET
7:18 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Spoon,

I was on Nationwide.
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551. pt100
07:19 PM GMT op 19 Augustus, 2007
found this on Jamaican.com:
CVM TV
http://www.firestream.tv/iptv/television.htm#

Or

http://www.cvmtv.com

Free Jamaican radio links
http://www.linkzfm.com/
http://www.nationwideradiojm.com/
http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/index.html
_________________________
https://www.jumptv.com/en/channel/tvj/
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550. StormJunkie
7:19 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Actually 918, that is about as bad as it could get for the S coast of Jamaica, they will get the worst winds, and enormous surge, and the mountains will not have a chance to impact the eyewall itself...

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549. katadman
7:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Thanks, MLC.
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548. SueNH
7:19 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
I'm in NH and it's cold. Had the wood stove going.
Was 40 degrees. No it isn't all that unusual. Summer is done here. Leaves have tinge of color. Frost can happen any time after mid August. Usually it holds off until mid to late Sept but it does happen often enough where I don't bat an eye.
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546. ChuckieTodd
2:20 PM CDT on August 19, 2007
What's the story on the wind report in Kingston?

Link
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545. crackerlogic
7:10 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
This is just me, but I think Jamaica, The Grand Caymans, and the Yucatan will be just fine, I went to all these places in early part of 05. I was expecting to see some bad things. I live in Florida and saw the destruction all around (my roof was not even fixed yet), but I was really surprised when I went to these places, other than a couple of ragged looking trees every thing looked normal from the last time I was there. I think most of the people in the Caribbean are much better in handling stuff like this then we are. I have been in a couple of hurricanes and even a typhoon, and the stress of an oncoming storm is no fun, but other than that I think they will be just fine.
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544. StormJunkie
7:17 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Interesting and good catch RoughS And welcome aboard. So the real question is did that truly happen due to land interaction or was it just the shape of the guiding high?
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543. 9185213
7:17 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Dean's eye looks like it will pass, or brush the SW coast of Jamaica.

It could have been worse.
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542. Fshhead
7:17 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
afternoon All, it sure looks like the sw corner of Haiti could be brushed by the eyewall. Hopefully he will take a little southerly wobble when he gets there....
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541. setfree7
2:15 PM CDT on August 19, 2007
Erin should keep moving NE.
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540. Johnhopefan
7:15 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
The CMC is right!!!!!! Hwere it comes!!!!
CMC Mystery System forming!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
537. Fl30258713
7:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
putintang3

The ULL seams to be drifting west-ish. I've been watcching it and Dean in the link below.

Link
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 988
536. hahaguy
7:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
what station is everyone listening to on the jamiacan radio
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
535. mello121
7:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
This link to Jamaica radio is working well for me
http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/
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534. Spoon
7:15 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
TXMET what station was that? I didn't hear that on 106 FM
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533. IKE
2:13 PM CDT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: louisianaboy444 at 2:12 PM CDT on August 19, 2007.
yeah lol i've pretty much stopped watching dean its not heading to texas or louisiana like everyone though which is a good thing.....i'm glad storms dont hit the gulf coast anymore we dont need anymore


Barry hit this year. You sound disappointed?
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532. castnblast
7:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
TX residents, you can rest easier, but don't let your guard down till it makes land fall...Just pay attention to each forecast...I think a NW jog is fairly unlikely, but if the high moves just a bit east, we could be in for a suprise. IMO, I don't believe that will happen, but that is in the air (literally and figuratively)... so in the mean time, pray for those in Jamaica and Mexico...hopefully mexico will not get blasted twice...
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531. setfree7
2:12 PM CDT on August 19, 2007
I'm not convinced of Dean's final path until it gets into the GOM.
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529. VentoTresandando
7:05 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
IKE, I agree. The damage caused by storms depend not only on wind strength, but also on rain fall, duration, and the local soil conditions. With all the flooding Texas has experienced over the last few months, I doubt they could much handle a tropical storm without significant damage. Weedwatcher555 must be immature and/or from a place safe from such weather. In my coastal Alabama, granted, a tropical storm... we have thunderstorms worse than that, but in the right conditions, even a tropical storm can be scary and cause significant damage and/or loss of life. I cite Tropical Storm Allison, which hit the Houston area in 2001.
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528. extreme236
7:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
so is the recon done with dean till tonight then?
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
527. moonlightcowboy
7:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: katadman at 6:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
mlc, looking at the map you posted: Is there any reason to believe that Erin's presence will cause the high that is over New Mexico to pull north or at least to slow its expansion to the east? Seems to me that that would cause the ULL in the GOM to linger in (basically) it's current position, giving Dean a northward swing. I don't understand meteorology well enough to know if this is even a plausible proposal.


Sorry, Katadman, got sidetracked.

The low just east of the N. Mexico high is exected to move south of that high. So, my guess it that the high will not be able to move in that direction. If you look at the steering currents though, it appears that the GOM ull's has a broadening influence despite it moving west. I'm concerned with the high east of there wrapping itself around the east side of Dean. If that ull doesn't have any influence, then I think it'll continue to track west. Also, the nw Caribbean TCHP values are super high. Dean should strengthen and may gain foward speed and on a northwest track, the ull may begin to effect it.

CONUS sfc map

JMHO, I don't understand meteorology either, lol. I do know these storms take weird turns and sometimes invent the path they want to take, despite prevaling conditions. Keep watching. You may be right!
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526. flibinite
6:59 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Skyepony's flight numbers looked just terrible. I imagine they came from the northeast quadrant, and were from over three hours ago, and Dean is obviously strengthening since then, by all indications. The south of Jamaica is just going to get rocked, unfortunately. Better than a direct hit, but still... :-((

Are we going to get an interim update from the NHC with new pressures and windspeeds? I can't believe the 2 PM one, with a 930 mb reading, can be even close to correct now. :-(

Jo
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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