Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:15 AM GMT on August 19, 2007

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Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean? The official forecast and nearly all of the computer models have put Jamaica in the bulls-eye for several days now. But hurricanes have a funny way of taking 11th-hour wobbles that spare the island a direct hit. Witness the remarkable turn Hurricane Ivan took in 2004, as it headed directly for the island with 145 mph winds. Ivan took a sudden turn 35 miles from the island, traced out an exact outline of the island's coast 35 miles offshore, then resumed its previous track. In the Jamaica Observer, Custos of Kingston, Reverend Carmen Stewart, contends that it was not the first time that prayers had influenced the turn of events when disaster faced Jamaica. "It has happened time and time again," Reverend Stewart says. "I know people have been praying and I don't see any other reason why it (the hurricane) would make such a drastic turn.... God hears prayer."


Figure 1. Hurricane Ivan as it miraculously skirted the island of Jamaica. Image credit: jamaicancaves.org.

Category 5 Hurricane Allen took an odd wobble around the island, too, but Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 did not. Can Jamaicans pray away Hurricane Dean? Well, the recent motion of Dean has been more due west, which may bring the storm just south of the island. Keep praying, Jamaica!

Links to follow over the next day:
Radar in Pilón, Cuba.
Radar from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic observations (east tip of the island).
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic observations.
Kingston, Jamaica observations.
Montego Bay, Jamaica observations.

I'll have an update by noon Sunday.
Jeff Masters

Hurricane Dean near the island Puerto Rico (Hector777)
the ciclonic surge hard mind in Salinas,Puerto Rico mines the Community Las Ochenta in the south of Puerto Rico
Hurricane Dean near the island Puerto Rico

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1888. druseljic
7:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Beautiful picture BahaHurican and thanks for the answer to my earlier question.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
1887. BahaHurican
4:11 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Now this is beautiful and scary at the very same time . . .


Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 23864
1886. hcubed
4:10 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
"Posted By: eaglesrock at 9:22 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.

CMC = Can't Model Crap"


Actually, there's been one forcast model that's been worse than the CMC this year, and that's the SWS.

SWS = StormKat Weather Service
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1885. BahaHurican
4:07 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: druseljic at 11:13 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.

Newbie question here, the blowup of clouds from the ULL in the GOM seems impressive. Could something like this develop? Learning here and thanks in advance for any responses!


We had a similar blowup of rain / clouds when that ULL moved through The Bahamas a few days ago. That particular circulation seems to be unstable enough to induce lots of moisture out of the atmosphere. Not all ULLs are that stormy, though there was a pretty potent one crossing TX a while back that added to flooding there.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 23864
1884. WildHorseDesertTx
4:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
I live in between Corpus and Brownsville, and altho I am pretty sure there isn't too much to worry about (right now), I have gone ahead and put up some plywood over my hard to reach windows while I had some help and before the work week starts. Kinda looks silly with all my higher windows covered but oh well! LOL
Member Since: July 23, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 108
1883. BahaHurican
4:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Again on CMC, I've seen this model again and again focus accurately on development locations far earlier than other models. I admit it is usually far overboard when it comes to strength of the system, but if CMC indicates a development point and then bombs out the system, there's a good chance something will form in that area.

At least that's what I've observed with systems earlier this year . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 23864
1882. Melagoo
4:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Could Erin end up dragging Dean upward toward the Gulf Coast
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1628
1881. pmchugh7
3:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Hurricane Dean just made a jog to the North. If you doubt this you will see a flattening of the SW outer band.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html
1880. Melagoo
3:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
What made Erin head northwest could Dean do the same when he gets there
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1628
1879. WXMongrel
3:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Once Dean moves west of Jamaci it looks like upper level winds shift more northerly. And the steering winds over the east coast appear to be behind the curve. The ULL in the GOM may be running interference.
Here is the North Atlantic GOES loop showing winds.Link
1878. guygee
3:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
What is that weird AEMI model that is a north outlier showing Dean landfall just south of Brownsville?

It finally dawned on me that it is the GFS Emsemble Mean (AEMN), "interpolated". Since the GFS ensembles are neither "early" nor "late" models, but in-between, the AEMI shows up in many of the track graphics.

A useful list for many model acronyms can be found here.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3305
1877. stormlovr
3:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Good Morning All
1876. crackerlogic
3:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
medicroc,

Jamaica is a wonderful place to go, I have gone a couple of times, it is my favorite place to go in all the Caribbean, last time I went was in the spring of 05, Jamaica and grand Cayman recovered extremely well after Ivan, compared to some of the places here in Florida
1875. PensacolaBuoy
3:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Normally, you don't want a pinhole eye because it's typically more intense. But for Jamaica, an enlarged eye could be bad news, as it's a way for the storm to reach further north with its windfield even though the eye itself may remain south of the island.
Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 404
1874. StormJunkie
3:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Dr M has a new blog up

See y'all there
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16982
1873. extreme236
3:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
well the EWRC is about over as it appears. the inner eye wall is collapsing and the eye has gotten bigger.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1872. sturmvogel
3:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Wow,

See the spot developing over the Blue mountains (Max alt 7,401ft) caused by orographic lift?
1871. TheCaneWhisperer
3:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Yes it is ride and will continue to do so. Good thing is that this EWRC will keep the intensity down for the time being.
1869. extreme236
3:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
something else i have noticed is that shear is favorable off the SE coast as well as in much of the eastern atlantic. so if there was a disuturbance in these areas something could form
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1868. BahaHurican
3:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: bahama at 10:29 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.

We have no radar in the bahamas so I use this one in cuba. It will reach out to jamaica and caymans


Hi, just curious where u live? The Bahamas does have radar . . . how did u think they were landing all those jet planes at the international airports?

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/

I will give this caveat, that sometimes it works better than others.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 23864
1867. Cavin Rawlins
3:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: littlefish at 3:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

456, the wave you mention is no longer developed by CMC (although looks like there's minor spim to it possibly). But the wave north around 20N 50W roughly developing (it seems like there are 2 rotational spots at 20N 53W and 18N 48W but it is very hard to tell on vis right now and as repeated before, no convection so they'll likely fall apart soon and become open waves if they don't get convection).


What other wave?, there is only one tropical wave.





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1866. Fl30258713
3:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
I was looking at the NWS Fronts information from http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

and just west of the BOC over the Mexican coast it is showing 1015mb HP. I haven't seen this HP noted before and it doesn't look like it is part of forecast models.

Just wanted to point it out for considerations.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 988
1865. nickmini
3:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Wundermobay:Hello everyone,It's still sunny here in Montego Bay Jamaica

I am sure that guy from TWC is getting in some golf!
1864. PensacolaBuoy
3:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
The NWS in Norman, OK, should not use the term "inland tropical storm" for Erin, as this is just sensationalism. The wind speeds justify labeling it an inland depression. Impressive structure remaining, though. What is the forecast track of these remnants after they depart Oklahoma?
Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 404
1863. listenerVT
3:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Stay safe Jamaicans!

BBL
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5790
1862. ridesthestorms
3:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Hello
Is Dean still following the model track?
Member Since: July 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
1861. TheCaneWhisperer
3:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
We'll have to monitor the progress of the weakness in the ridge. CMC says it will quickly close up. GFS and Nogaps keep it open and recurve the area out to sea. Just quickly looking at the North Atl water vapor, I am halfway siding with the CMC on it closing up. Have to see what happens in the next couple of days. CMC spins it up pretty quickly with land fall in 5 1/2 days around West Palm. Granted not the best model this year but, it is one of the big 4 and still needs to be looked at.
1860. steelmagnolia44
3:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Now, I found you o311.......thanks for posting the info about Crown Weather! Great site!

steel
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
1859. WXMongrel
3:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Appears the EWRC is finishing up in this loop.
Link
1858. Hellsniper223
3:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
To me it seems as if the CMC is great at catching storms way before they form. However, the model doesn't seem to get a good handle on were they form.
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
1857. extreme236
3:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
to me, there are a lot of little minor areas right now with minimal convection, although if conditions become favorable for any of these waves we could see something come out of it
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1856. Wundermobay
3:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Hello everyone,It's still sunny here in Montego Bay Jamaica
You can get live reports from our local radio station
Which willbe broadcasting even if Dean strikes us directly.
directly.

Link
1855. littlefish
3:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
ClearH2O just the CMC.
1854. listenerVT
3:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Joot ~ I agree. It's not about how many buckets of faith you have. No need for superstitions.

IMHO prayer simply affects the energy by "opening the possible" in the freedom of creation.

It doesn't negate science. Science and energy and the universe are one.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5790
1853. littlefish
3:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
456, the wave you mention is no longer developed by CMC (although looks like there's minor spim to it possibly). But the wave north around 20N 50W roughly developing (it seems like there are 2 rotational spots at 20N 53W and 18N 48W but it is very hard to tell on vis right now and as repeated before, no convection so they'll likely fall apart soon and become open waves if they don't get convection).
1852. Xion
3:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Lots of Jamaicans use the weather underground but we call it wunderground from the url.
Never been to Jamaica, but after listening to the radio station and all the wonderful people calling in, it looks like I'll have a new vacation destination(just not today ,lol)


I too have called it "wonder" ground.

Because "Weather Underground" is two syllables too many.
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 726
1851. ClearH2OFla
3:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Good mornng all my thoughts are with the island of Jamica. I do have one quesiton. Are any other models picking up on this Link
1850. steelmagnolia44
3:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Sorry I can't find whom to thank for posting the info about the Crown Weather Services link............thank you!

That is an excellent site! For those wanting to listen to the radio in Jamaica, there are links on that site in the tropical weather section.

steel
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
1849. Wundermobay
3:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
1848. medicroc
3:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2007

Lots of Jamaicans use the weather underground but we call it wunderground from the url.
Never been to Jamaica, but after listening to the radio station and all the wonderful people calling in, it looks like I'll have a new vacation destination(just not today ,lol)
Member Since: September 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 457
1847. Xion
3:33 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
OK, maybe not shear. But what is droppong T#s and Dvorak intensities. The max in T#s was about 36 hours ago when Dean pulled his TS to cat3 fast intensification. Since then the Dvorak intensity has been waning, too. What is causing that? He cannot be doing 6 or 8 ERCs back-to-back, or the eye would be 100 miles across by now.

To be fair to Dean his T# is 6.3 from ADT, which is only .1 below his peak intensity 36 hours ago, and his pressure is lower than it was then.
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 726
1846. hurricane667
3:33 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
yea i saw that too
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 161
1845. extreme236
3:33 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
dvorak hasnt been right with dean from the beginning. it showed dean weakening during its intensification phase
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1844. PtOConnorTXfisherman
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: hurrybird at 2:51 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Well the models are starting to split to the east showing possibles in Texas and Louisiana. I am betting they will move more east as the next few days evolve.


How do you figure? I see zero E movement.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
1843. youngw3ath3rman
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
has anyone noticed the last frame of dean the eye got bigger
Member Since: September 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1842. atmoaggie
3:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
OK, maybe not shear. But what is droppong T#s and Dvorak intensities. The max in T#s was about 36 hours ago when Dean pulled his TS to cat3 fast intensification. Since then the Dvorak intensity has been waning, too. What is causing that? He cannot be doing 6 or 8 ERCs back-to-back, or the eye would be 100 miles across by now.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1841. nickmini
3:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: pmchugh7 at 3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
I'm listening to Jamacian Radio and half of the callers (that are on hold) don't answer whan called upon. Power outages have begun.


we don't need electricity for phones to work. they probably lack patience. thanks for the God Speed.
1840. saltmarsh
3:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Looking through the archives, I found a storm back in the late l950's that slowed to a depression overland then increased back to a tropical storm much as Erin has done. I noticed also that Camille, which hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast as a strong 5 in l969, traversed much of the United States, then exited on the upper east coast and became a weak hurricane again. Interesting!
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
1839. nickmini
3:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Posted By: medicroc at 3:21 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
is there a weather blog "wunderground". If not then Jamaican radio station just tried to give weatherunderground a plug.


Lots of Jamaicans use the weather underground but we call it wunderground from the url.
1838. StormJunkie
3:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2007
Thanks VT :~) Just paying forward what I have learned here and am still learning every day!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16982

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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