Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

08er, I could not tell a lot from the radar, but from current sat, and MIMIC imagery that is 3hrs old, it looks that way to me.

If any of you have not seen MIMIC imagery, you really need to check it out. A type of Microwave morphed imagery. Really cool. Only problem is it only updates every 6-12hrs I think.

8 hours plus of WNW/NW and counting.

It's probably time to take a look at the 384 hour GFS that has a hurricane going into Louisiana!

cchsweather,
Here's mine (again)
The ULL or TUTT Low (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) should not be much of a factor in the future movement of Dean.

If you believe the non-tropical models this TUTT is really evident only at the 300mb level and above (approx 30,000 ft) and would not exert much of a steering influence at that height.
If anything, it may add some VWS (vertical wind shear) into the equation and limit or reduce storm intensity farther down the track.

Then again, it could aid outflow across the top of the storm as well.

That said, we're down to a persistence track and the model consensus appears logical.

cchs- you forgot to mention if the ULL is over Texas/Mexico mainland and out of picture. The scenario i think the models choose.

MN, I am all confused by this ULL and have not really been watching/keeping up with it.

I am going with "Blog Consensus Model" for now...Wunder if we could market that...lol Anwyho for now the BCM's forecast for the ULL is "who the hell knows, but there is more Nward motion then was expected..."

SJ- ya MIMIC makes for cool animation loops.

Thanks!

New Blog!

i pretty much think louisiana is in the clear time to move on wishcasters maybe next storm...sorry guys...and i'm not trying to be sassy cuz i dont have a problem with wishcasters they just people that really love the weather and want to be where its happening

Isn't it true that the stronger a hurricane gets, the more sensitive it becomes to steering currents in all levels of the atmosphere?

Is that true or not? I heard that from somebody on this blog a week ago...

I'm follwing the wobbles about 3 loops in last 6 hours. But the move to WNW is not the wobbles.

cch,
the last couple of runs of the GFS had the low going almost due west across the gulf, and staying close to shore and being pretty weak. the latest model runs of some of the other models show it dipping much farther south and strengthening. the early gfs runs had the high building back in after the low crossed into tx, and pushing dean down into mexico. while this may still happen, it looks to me as if the odds of it occuring are getting lower. right about now i would be getting queasy if i was short gasoline futures.

LOL SJ - The BCM - think FSU can incorporate that on their experimental page?

I started looking at the ULL after I got back home last night because it was drawing from as far SW as the W Caribbean. I also notice that (at the time) Dean was moving W roughly 2x the speed at which the ULL was moving W.

Now, with the apparent change in motion of Dean, I'm wondering if they might not miss each other. The ULL maintains it's "forward motion" at roughly the same speed as last night. But, Dean's "westward motion" has been reduced by roughly 20-30% with this more northerly component to it's motion.

Bottom line - wait and see, I guess...

New blog.

It's kind of funny how everyone is paying attention to the wobbles. No TS/hurricane runs in a perfect straight line (that I ever seen), it will wobble and bounce a little.

Also for the formula for knots to mph..multiply the knots you have by 1.15 and round off..Viola.

Tropical forecast points on loops available on WU show Dean taking a straight path toward Mex. A straight path rarely happens. Anyone in a 2000 mile stretch of GOM coast should pay attention. Best scenario is Dean runs toward ULL and gets sheared to a smaller weaker storm.

This is Mother nature - anyhing can happen !

this will be a very good radar to monitor in the next hours.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

Guys,
What do you think would cause the ridge that is supposed to build over Florida to weaken? Some of you are throwing that possibility out there and wanted to know what would cause this and what are the possibilities of it happening.

Last night using radar returns the direction shift was noted to 303 deg WNW. In the last 30 minutes returns have showed a slightly westward return to 287 deg, 17 deg N of W.

According to Dr Steve all the models are shifting south to a mexico landfall.

000
URNT12 KNHC 181536
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/15:02:00Z
B. 15 deg 39 min N
068 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2511 m
D. 80 kt
E. 196 deg 5 nm
F. 281 deg 091 kt
G. 194 deg 005 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 11 C/ 3051 m
J. 21 C/ 3038 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C11
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 15
MAX FL WIND 92 KT SW QUAD 15:00:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 139 KT NE QUAT 15:05:30 Z
EYEWALL ON SOUTH SIDE LOOKING MORE RAGGED

sure looks like it is trending to a more northerly track - maybe just a big wobble.

Lawxguy.

As I understand it, you are correct, the larger the storm the more you have to move higher up in the atmosphere to determine a mean (as in average flow).

But a TUTT low or ULL is at/near the top of the atmosphere All or most of the TS's are below it.
Sometimes these ULL's can extend down around the 500mb level and can add some steering but this one does not appear to.
The lastest GFS global shows 40-50knot northeasterly winds coming from around the top of the ULL into the projected track of Dean.

yawwwwn GM ALL :)

track mark
16.1,72
17.2,77 C5/H/D
17.4,79
18,81 C4/H/D
19,82
21,85

Where does this northerly track model come from?

I know it could be a fluke that may correct itself.

whats left of erin runs nne ull rushes in to south texas to fill in the void dean follows up keep yer heads up now boys

Good Morning folks,
Dean is a very impressive entity. A beautiful storm in terms of Mother Nature's wonders, alas, not so beautiful in terms of the effects of life and property for those in his path. As far as his path and the NHC forcasting at this point, I have been plotting and tracking their forcasts from day one, and I must admit,they have nailed it on the money. The nexy few days are an almost given to be correct also: with a margin of error not so big. With over 100 Weather Professionals working there and so many up-to-date forcast technologies at their finger tips, I would give the NHC much credit in those forcast tracks we are seeing. After day 3-5, the margin of error obviously widens, but, I would still have to validate their expertise as the best one to follow in the days ahead. Just my opinion, BUT, as they say always, Mother Nature can be fickle, so be wise and prudent, and ready if need be, ciao for now, Rich

Hi, look at the CMC forecast and see what it predicts just north of Cuba! CMC

Thatt ULL seems to be moving into the eastern gulf now and staying ahead of Dean. That is a good thing, right? I mean that would keep Dean on the Westward movement, right?