Katrina a Category 2 storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on August 26, 2005

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Recent Hurricane Hunter measurements show the pressure has dropped significantly, and is now down to 971 mb. Surface winds have increased to 100 mph, making Katrina a Category 2 hurricane. It would be no real surprise to see Katrina attain Category 3 status by this evening, and probably a Category 4 on Saturday.

The forecast track has not changed significantly, with a landfall Monday morning still expected along the end of the Gulf of Mexico's bowling alley, the Florida Panhandle between Pensacola and Panama City. However, two key computer models--the NOGAPS and GFDN--have made a large jump to the west, bringing Katrina over Louisiana. New Orleans can definitely not breathe easy until Katrina makes its turn north and we have a better idea where she is going.

Jeff Masters

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636. CybrTeddy
3:43 AM GMT on May 23, 2009
Amazing, if only we knew what was about to unfold. Anyone else reading this will agree, Katrina was the worst Hurricane of the decade unless the unthinkable happens in 2009.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
635. jaxwatches
11:37 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
I just took a look at the NO weather page. NWS forcast for monday calls for 140 mph wind gusts, but in the advisories area it is blank. What's up with that?
Member Since: September 8, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
634. flick
8:48 AM GMT on August 27, 2005
nolamommy -

Head to Jackson, MS. The Red Cross opens a shelter there, probably still at the fairgrounds. If you can't find it, stop at Tourist Information as you come into Jackson from New Orleans.

They should have the shelter open pretty early, as people along the coast will evacuate early, from Grand Isle and such.

If you go to the shelter, it'll cost you nothing but the gas to get there. We evac'd one year, '92 iirc. Red Cross was GREAT. They house you, feed you, etc. They got in big screen TVs, books, games for the kids.

Take some towels, washrags, change of clothes and bedding, pillows with you. Don't forget to pack your important paperwork (birth certificates, etc.). Can't take pets in the shelter, but the local humane society was helping evacuees with that, when I went. Also, there was a vet with a big kennel and reasonable rates, not far from the fairgrounds.

Save your money. If you're going to leave town, go to the RC shelter - it's for people like you and me, who can't afford Days Inn ;-).
633. BigDaddy1978
11:46 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
I believe so. I used to have a close friend in the New Orleans area. She's the daughter of my next-door neighbor. Her family (husband and children) just moved to Georgia.

Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
632. leftyy420
11:07 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
hey all amback
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
631. whitewabit (Mod)
11:03 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
bigdaddy

aren't the roofs of most buildings under sea level too ?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32494
630. BigDaddy1978
11:01 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
I'm still guessing based on my limited chances to check things at my office this comes onshore near Pascagoula as a mid-level Cat 3. We have people that work for us down in Pascagoula. They evacuated when Dennis came ashore and will now.

The nightmare scenario would be the inundation and destruction of the city of New Orleans. Personally if a storm hits just right, New Orleans may not be habitable for a very long time, if at all.

It IS below sea level.....
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
629. whitewabit (Mod)
10:24 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
jeffm

hey thanks was wondering why i couldn't post
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32494
628. JeffM
10:17 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
If your not seeing new posts on this blog after refreshing, look below the last post and there is a button to press to SHOW ALL posts.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
627. hurricane79
10:12 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Yes, it appears that she hsa resumed a West movement.
624. WSI
9:58 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
She is moving very erraticaly right now, but motion overall the past few hours has been due west.
623. STORMTOP
9:53 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
you right im out of here i got to do lots of things...later tonight gang i will give my 11pm update.....just listen to your local news tonight and remember tomorrow is the key day even though the models have switched left...i thiink it will shift again later tomorrow more to the west...
622. SouthernFootprints
9:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Thanks to all - I live in Hattiesburg, MS about 1 mile from USM, my neice is a first year student at USM, she lives with me. Originally from the North - so I am new to the hurricane seasons . . thanks for all of your help
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 70
621. weatherboyfsu
9:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Stormtop, quit antagonizing people, i know your good at it, but just stop it.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
620. STORMTOP
9:44 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
toyotaman this must be killing you all the questions i been getting..dont it get you pissed especially when you laughed at me when i first came out with it.....you need to listen to somebody i dont where you live.....but if you live in the bullseye i would get out...
619. herewegoagain
9:44 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Valence:

Thank you for pointing out that Mobile Bay would be another really bad place for Katrina to come ashore. When Hurricane Danny (a Cat1 storm) came thru several years ago, it came into Mobile Bay and stayed for almost 3 days! We would go to bed at night each night, thinking that it would surely be over when we woke up, but it continued for DAYS. There were spots inland that received almost 30 inches of rain. The rivers were overflowing their banks all over Baldwin County.

Hurricane Georges also fed off of Mobile Bay and stayed for a day or two, instead of the usual 4-5 hours.

Since hurricanes feed off of water, you really don't want it to land anywhere that has a large body of water that it can feed off of.

Good luck and prayers for all.
618. bigpoppapascagoula
9:43 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
nolamommy, some churches in Jackson, MS area along I-55 will have open doors, storm shelters, food, and a place to stay. I think if you could make a few calls ahead, you could probably locate a shelter.
617. KShurricane
9:43 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Hey guys, Jeff just updated. He thinks the dry air will stop the intensification before it reaches cat 4. What do you guys think? Dry air hasn't slowed it down much before.
616. sachmet
9:43 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
StormJunkie: this might work:

flooding map of NO
615. weatherboyfsu
9:40 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Im going with Panama city, Fla. ,,,150mph..2am Monday morning
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
614. STORMTOP
9:40 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
it wont be tallahassee or panama city or pensecola..this is a alabama louisians ans miss storm....
613. newinfl
9:40 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
dr. jeff has new bog out.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
612. littlepaleangel
9:38 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
then there is this on another part of the website i just listed

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml
611. FTmyersZ
9:38 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Hi guys, as a newbie to all of this, but a veteran of Charlie, I'm wondering how the NHC can say it is wsw movment. It looks to me off the Key West Radar that it either has stalled or is slowly wnw??
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
610. Toyotaman
9:37 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Lets hold off congratulating peoples forecast(ie guess) until it actually hits. OK
609. raindancer
9:36 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
ST - I'll just remind you that 24 hours ago the NHC had the storm going to just off the Tampa coast heading north... They are way off from that prediction now... Where do you think they will predict 24 hours from now...? =:)
Member Since: September 14, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
608. weatherboyfsu
9:36 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
nope, i havent had time to read all the blogs......ok great, I respect that.....seems very possible.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
607. littlepaleangel
9:35 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
I found this link of possible storm surge effects in NO

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/new_orleans.shtml
606. Selu
9:35 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Toyota,

You don't live in New Orleans, do you? You've never been in an evacuation in a city of that size, have you?

Anyone who needs hotel reservations right now is screwed if they want to stay south of Jackson.

Evacuation should begin tomorrow morning from New Orleans. If you wait any longer, you'll be stuck in traffic for hours upon hours.
Member Since: February 5, 2004 Posts: 7 Comments: 312
605. 53rdWeatherRECON
9:35 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
The Dry Tortugas weather station observations is currently gusting up to 85 mph with pressure dipping below 28.00" I see a stall. I have seen it for hours I know it takes a long time to steer something like this but it is just not moving but is already a CAT 3.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
604. turbo666
9:34 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
look toward the african coast

Link
603. STORMTOP
9:34 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
weather boy you have it already...cat 5 180mph west of grand isle to pass christian miss...
602. Selu
9:33 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
My prediction, not that it matters: Landfall as a Cat 4 in New Orleans.

This is an uneducated guess, but from the hints that have been posted here and elsewhere, as far as military bases evacuating expensive jets and such, I'm guessing New Orleans, Monday morning, Category 4.
Member Since: February 5, 2004 Posts: 7 Comments: 312
601. weatherboyfsu
9:33 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
looking at the key west loop....it definitely has began a different direction than from before....its gaining latitude for the first time in 24 hours...
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
600. boiredfish
9:33 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
just keep it east of Sabine...
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 442
599. Toyotaman
9:32 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Hey evryone, just want to put in my 2 cents. It is way to early to make an acurrate prediction of what Katrina will do. Until it makes its turn, which could be tonite,tomorrow, or even Sunday, there is really no need to panic and evacuate. All you should be doing is preparing which you should have done back in june anyway. When the storm makes its turn, then officials will have a better idea of landfall. Just watch your local news and wait.
598. STORMTOP
9:31 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
rain the nhc knows exactly where katrina is going by shifting the track westward over 150 miles...you can be sure it will be shifted west again time is running out and even if the trough would come down it would have no bearing..this thing has been moving wsw all day long man and you expect it to take a ratical ne turn with the size of the system you are dealing with ..you are in dreamland...
597. weatherboyfsu
9:30 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Ok stormtop....I need a prediction.......where, when, and how strong????????....a city.....and no revising...
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
596. notwithoutmyprosac
9:27 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Stormtop I love your info.

Is it just me or has this image gotten really strange looking the last few loops? Is that massive outflow?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
595. raindancer
9:27 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
One thing I did notice - and I know this short period of time does not infer a motion - but the Dry Tortugas *almost* made it inside the eye - but now the eye has pulled definitively further north.
Member Since: September 14, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
594. StormJunkie
9:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
I will continue to post this until NO is in the clear of the storm surge. Does anyone have an animated link to what a 15-25 foot storm surge would do to NO? That would be a great link because I am not sure that everyone is taking the time to read this.

PLEASE READ THIS IF YOU LIVE IN OR AROUND NEW ORLEANS.Link

This is really what would happen!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
593. STORMTOP
9:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
us amet wake up im not getting through to you..hurricane force winds will extend outwards from the eye 150 to 200 miles....you are not dealing with the same storn fla dealt with..you are dealing with and andrew and an ivan....now do you get my drift...
592. Unlabled
9:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Thank you all for keeping us common folks in the loop of what is acutally happening. I work a Loyola University in NO and the new students just arrived today as classes start on Monday.. I'm afraid most will be trapped if it hits here.

No one in the city is worrying about this at all, its really ridiculous. I will wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do but I figure to be heading to Austin, TX for a long weekend.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
591. raindancer
9:24 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
I think it's just becoming more and more obvious that the NHC (and everyone else) doesn't have a good grasp on what's going to happen... There's no definite steering current at present -- only a speculation on what will become of the high pressure and the approaching TROF. If we jumped at every speculation in the last 24 hours - we would have evacuated the ENTIRE Gulf Coast from Tampa to Brownsville! It's just going to have to be a wait and see for a bit more...
Member Since: September 14, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
590. butterflymcb
9:24 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Parts of Key West have received over 12 inches of rain (by the storm total tool). Do we know how our friends in Key West are doing? Don't they normally evac Key West and they didn't because no one besides StormTop thought it was going there? :)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
589. Wombats
9:22 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
one model had brownsville? That would mean a basic w or wnw at the last minute movement the whole way..
588. STORMTOP
9:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
i want to emphasize this and you all listen...it doesnt matter where the storm hit ..it could hit anywhere from new iberia to mobile and you are still going to get walloped..this is not a small storm its continuing to grow and will grow to the size betsy was 700 miles across..you should think you are going to get hurricane force winds if you live in new orleans if it hits mobile..if it hits gulfport you will get a lot stronger winds tornados and extremely heavy rainfall....this is a very wet storm we are dealing with so dont expect if you get 10 to 15 inches out of it especially if it slows down at land fall.....you need to be ready get everythin ready before they give the evacuation order........
587. Wombats
9:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
where are you located footprints??
586. newinfl
9:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
stormtop - if it enters from grand isle it would be as if the artical that was posted eariler was written for this storm. Have you read the artical, if so do u agree?
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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