im in ur blogz, dishin ur TC storyz *

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:34 PM GMT on July 30, 2007

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Guest blogger Margie Kieper

* lolcats, for the uninitiated – and my own contribution to the genre: metcat.


As Bob King sympathized with me a couple of weeks ago, "The only thing worse than blogging – is not blogging." And what better way to have your cake and eat it too, than to blog…but not blog. So, after doing my part to help save the Shire and its furry-footed forecasters from Mordor: I'm back.

But what TC “storyz” haven’t already been addressed ad nauseam? The collective ennui of the lingering ENSO-neutral state of the equatorial East Pacific, the ongoing SAL in the East Atlantic, and anticipating the predictable seasonal predictions of what may lie in-between (an “active / busy / above-normal” season), is almost enough to impede lifting fingers to keyboard.

Almost.

For those of you who have recovered from the 2005/2006 very public debate regarding hurricanes and global warming, you can pick it up again as the next chapter rolls out today (and why not, since you’ve all finished that last Harry Potter). An extraordinarily large number of news media were advanced a preview of a paper due to clear the publication embargo today, providing a new twist on analysis of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in relation to SST, and it seems all of them carried a story on it. Most tout a sensational headline about global warming increasing hurricanes, but I like this one, “Tropical storms stepping up with climate change,” because it appears they actually did read the paper.

There’s sure to be some ripples in the pond, so grab the popcorn and Google News (or whatever your poison) this week to catch the dizzying repartee – which might be a lot more palatable if it were limited to pirate talk (arrr!).

Another news trend cropped up the last part of July: fearful the public might forget about the danger of hurricanes making landfall during the hurricane season, rather than just remind us regularly during the off-season, it’s now become vogue to remind us periodically during the season. So, for anyone who hasn’t yet heard this several times recently: a slow July is normal, and doesn’t mean we’re not in for an active season. August starts the day after tomorrow, and it’s going to be active. Or busier than average. Or above normal. Maybe not as many storms as predicted in May, but still more than normal. Certainly more than the old normal. Possibly more than the post-1994 normal. July to August, as far as hurricanes are concerned is, apparently, like getting in a car with your grandmother behind the wheel, put-putting along slowly in the right lane, then, just as you’re about to doze off, suddenly realizing that she’s put on some pre-1930s-trendy aviator goggles, is laughing maniacally, and you’ve swerved into the fast lane, in some crazy freewheeling Fear-and-Loathing road trip.

I’m not sure how far this trend can go, but it is conceivable that we’ll be reminded weekly, should any week in August, September, or October go by without a hurricane, that this is an active season. For those of you who want to anticipate how active, tune in to CSU on August 3rd and NOAA on August 9th.

Of course, if you want to know now, you can trust the real hurricane experts from Tulsa, OK:

Tropical developments suggest a hurricane may come ''very near the East Coast of Florida early in the 11- to 15-day period,'' Stephen Strum, president of Frontier Weather Inc. in Tulsa, Okla., said in a report.
Should someone let them know how accurate the models - er, "tropical developments" - are, two weeks out?...Nah!

There’s an invest in the North Atlantic – not worth mentioning unless you planned to golf today in Bermuda – which may get a tad more interesting once it is completely ocean-bound and of hardly any interest to anyone.

While there is constant talk about tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, there is tropical cyclone activity in other basins of the world this week.

The West Pacific has come alive after a late start, with super-typhoon Man-yi in mid-July. Japan is currently in the cross-hairs for Typhoon Usagi, which developed a good underlying structure this weekend (oh, the anticipation of the next decent 37gHz pass!) and will likely be looking impressive 36 hours from now (00Z 1 August). When it does, I'll be keeping you up to date with interesting imagery and news from that part of the globe.

The 2007-2008 Southwest Indian Ocean season has started early with two invests in the neighborhood of Diego Garcia, one of which developed into a short-lived tropical storm.

Finally, borrowing another page from Brendan's book: That Which It Is No Longer Necessary To Blog About is behind us (and, hopefully as well, Max’s days of jokingly referring to me as “Agatha”). So, I won’t be mentioning that either. :)

However, it is a good time to mention that Max has recently started his own hurricane blog, over at Miami’s WPLG Local 10, which immediately jumped to the top of my blog roll. A word of warning, Max: the only thing worse than blogging – is not blogging.

* * * * * * *

For Jeff’s early August hurricane outlook, which came out Sunday, link here.

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2712. billzilla
3:44 AM GMT on August 03, 2007
THANKS for the laugh and the recall of decades old Weekend Updates with Chevy Chase ... The Generaliisimo was dead then, and he's still dead. Now THAT's reporting that stands the test of time.
2711. patriots2007
3:11 PM GMT on August 01, 2007
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS FORMED UNDERNEATH VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 58.0W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1010.0 MB. WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER.
FURTHERMORE, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 84F/29C IN THE
AREA CAN ENHANCE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 021300Z AUG 2007.//
2710. patriots2007
2:25 PM GMT on August 01, 2007
Is this site working?
2709. patriots2007
1:34 PM GMT on August 01, 2007
We may have TD4 When recon gets out there this afternoon.
2708. patriots2007
10:14 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Don't look now,But 99L is on it's way back!
2704. Ivansvrivr
4:54 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Even if 99 develops now, It will get shredded in the eastern Carribean. 99 won't do much until gets past Puerto Rico.
2702. groundman
4:42 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Posted By: hosweather at 4:39 PM GMT on July 31, 2007.
Bring up the 12Z CMC run from July 28th for 850mb vorticity. Now set it forward 72 hours. This would be its approximate prediction for current conditions. I would say it's pretty darn close to what we are actually seeing.


That is truly frightening, the CMC is right?? Even partially??
2701. hosweather
4:39 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Bring up the 12Z CMC run from July 28th for 850mb vorticity. Now set it forward 72 hours. This would be its approximate prediction for current conditions. I would say it's pretty darn close to what we are actually seeing.
2700. Ivansvrivr
4:37 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
STL do we have any positive MDO la nina years to compare to?
2699. nolesjeff
4:35 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Link

Check this link out melwerle
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
2698. melwerle
4:34 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Very cool - thank you ivan...saw something out in the gulf too that looks a bit weird on one of the forecast models - was also afraid of getting some weird thing this way from the back...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
2697. catastropheadjuster
4:34 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Good Morning TexasC1 & Drakoen
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
2696. Ivansvrivr
4:32 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Forecast for S. Fl is nice this weekend. 99 woulnd't be here(if at all) till middle of next week.
2695. EdMahmoud
4:29 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Tomorrow arent the recon's flying into 99l?


One is scheduled to arrive at 1800Z, but I'd say there is a better than even chance that they cancel it tomorrow morning, unless it looks better then than it does now.


Recall a recon flight was scheduled for 98L/now TS Chantal on Sunday when it was East of Bahamas, and they cancelled that flight.

Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
2694. melwerle
4:27 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
ok - so i don't mean to beat a dead horse but anyone have a clue as to whether or not it's cool to go to Key West this weekend? I live in Savannah and was being taken down there for my b/day by hubby - however, don't really want to go if there is a threat...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
2691. Ivansvrivr
4:20 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Rmember though that last year had no activity in October because of El Nino; La Nina has the opposite effect, enhancing activity in the Caribbean (hence why 1998 had Mitch and 1999 had Lenny)......


Look for development north of Carrib. islands, and southern Gulf of Mexico. Those areas are usually hotspots following El Nino years. Those will be your Aug/Sept areas. Then western Carribean later in the season.









2688. WPBHurricane05
4:17 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2687. Drakoen
4:14 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
I found the link...
Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30823
2686. weathersp
4:14 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
I just saw the 00z CMC and ROFLMHO!!! Like thats gonna happen! with the GOM blob AND 99L.. I tell ya the CMC is on somthing bad.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
2685. seminolesfan
4:14 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
The CLP5 is a climatological model, it's forecast is based solely on past storms and not on the atmospheric conditions.
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
2682. Drakoen
4:11 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
MrNiceville i don't know what the site it. I saw it on a blog.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30823
2681. adrianalynne
4:09 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
seems interesting that the CLP5 seems consistent in moving this system further North
Member Since: August 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
2680. MrNiceville
4:09 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Drak, what are the links to those plots and the GFDL animation that you access? I can't seem to google them. I look to Crown for most of my "current conditions" info - any better sites to use?
2679. pensacolastorm
4:09 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
The cmc has both 99L and the blob in the gom developing.
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
2678. BiloxiGirl
4:07 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
I am also wondering about the weather that has blown up in the GOM south of MS and AL. Could it become anything?
Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
2677. Drakoen
4:07 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
yea it could regain the convection once it gets closer to the lesser Antilles. Oh here are the model plots some of the are 12z and some of the are 06z don't know why they are mixed but...'
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30823
2676. msphar
4:05 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
99L Falling apart better than I had hoped for today.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
2675. MrNiceville
4:04 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Drak - so you think that once it gets beyond 55W, it might (use of the diminutive, not perjorative) pick up a little more convection? That's a "fer piece" for something moving rough 1 degree (57 nm) every 5-7 hours...
2672. Ivansvrivr
4:02 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Does anyone out there know if the upper level winds are favorable for dev of that blob in the GOM?

Conditions are expected to improve(according to our local forecast) as high builds in behind low near N.C. moves N.E. and stalled coldfront washes out. If I still lived in Pensacola i'd be watching that one closely.
2670. flsky
4:01 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Pressure at 1011 here in Daytona Beach Shores, FL. Birds are flying low over the river. I have a bird feeder and a squirrel feeder and no one has shown up today (which NEVER happens). Feels like a storm is on the way....
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2111
2669. WPBHurricane05
4:01 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
WizardAprrentice- We get your point. You think that 99L is going poof. You don't need to say it 500,000 times.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2667. RL3AO
4:00 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
If 99 takes a little more northwestward track it could easily be a repeat of td10/05.

Hmm...lets just hope its remnants don't redevelop this time.
2664. whitewabit (Mod)
3:59 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
read the admin notice just above the comments box...not my words they are Dr Masters...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32366
2662. StormJunkie
3:58 PM GMT on July 31, 2007
Alright y'all back to work for me.

In the meantime...If you are interested in learning about tropical weather and weather in general there are some great sites out there. Many can be found from here.

See y'all later!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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