New computer model runs for Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2005

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The 1:18pm EDT Hurricane Hunter mission found the pressure of Katrina remained constant at 990mb, but the maximum winds were now on the northwest side at 64 knots (73 mph) at the airplane's flight level of 5000 feet. Radar from Miami confirms that the north side of Katrina has greatly increased in the amount and intensity of precipitation the past two hours as the storm continues to strengthen. It is a very good thing that Katrina does not have an extra 12 hours to intensify before landfall! However, the very favorable environment for intensification that Katrina is currently in is expected to still exist once she is in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday. I expect Katrina will become at least a Category 2 hurricane before its second landfall.

The latest computer model runs, performed using the 8am EDT upper air data, have made a major shift. Katrina is expected to push much farther west off of the western coast of Florida, and make a delayed turn to the north. These latest model runs show a much reduced risk to Tampa, and put an area from New Orleans to Cedar Key, Florida at risk. In the center of this risk area lies the U.S.'s very own hurricane magnet, the Pensacola region, where Ivan and Dennis struck.

Katrina continues to intensify at a modest pace, and if present trends continue will hit Florida near Fort Lauderdale tonight as a minimal Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds. The northwest side of the storm continues to suffer from dry air intrusions, and the primary intense thunderstorms and strongest winds are on the south side. Thus, the usual rule about the right front quadrant (north side) of the storm being the most dangerous is not neccesarily the case with Katrina. The highest storm surge will still be to the north of where the center comes ashore, but wind damage may be equally distributed on both sides of the storm.

The Miami radar loop continues to show an increase in low-level banding, and an eye-like feature trying to form. Upper level outflow is improving and slowing expanding.

As I discussed in the previous blog entry, the major threat to South Florida from Katrina is freshwater flooding from her rains. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 10 inches are expected from this slow-moving storm. For comparison, Hurricane Irene of 1999, which hit South Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, dumped 10 - 20 inches of rain. Damage from Irene was over $800 million in Florida. Damage from Katrina will probably be much lower, in the $30 - $100 million range, since Katrina's rainfall will be half of what Irene's was.

What's that behind Katrina?
A large area of disturbed weather even bigger than Katrina lies to her east, just north of Hispanolia. This disturbance lies in an area of high wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days.

Katrina blogs
For observations of what's happening now in South Florida, we have several bloggers writing today:

turtlehurricane (Weston, Broward County)

sngalla (Fort Lauderdale)

MrJ76 (Okeechobee)

Zeenster (Cape Coral, SW Florida)

evolution (Charlotte Harbor, SW Florida)

Dr. Jeff Masters

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741. HillsboroughBay
11:14 PM EDT on August 25, 2005
From the Public advisory NHC Miami


INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

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740. STORMTOP
3:06 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
WELL WSI IM JUST GIVING YOU THE FACTS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW..I WANT MY PEOPLE TO KNOW IF THE STORM PASSES WEST OF NEW ORLEANS THEY NEED TO BE AWARE IT WILL BE JUST LIKE BETST WAS IN 1965..IF IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF US LIKE OVER PASS CHRISTIAN IT WILL BE LIKE A CAMILLE EFFECT...IF IT PASSES OVER THE CITY LIKE CINDY DID FROM THE SE THEN YOU KNOW WE ARE GOING UNDER......JUST PAY ATTENTION AND THE TRACK WILL BE SHIFTED BY 5AM IN THE MORNING WHEN KATRINA IS WELL OUT OVER THE WATER....THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM MAYBE AND ALL TIME RECORD LOWEST PRESSURE EVER PEOPLE...THIS KATRINA WILL BE TALKED ABOUT FOR A LONG TIME...THE THREAT TO THE NE GULF COAST IS BECOMNING LESS AS TIME GOES BY..KATRINA WILL PICK UP SPEED ONCE SHE GETS OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN IT WILL BE A RACE IF SHE GETS TO 86 DEGREES FIRST BEFORE THE TROUGH THEN AS FAR WEST AS NEW IBERIA COULD BE IN THE LINE OF FIRE...IM NOT TRYING TO SCARE ANYONE JUST GIVING THEM THE FACTS....I CALLED THIS STORM RIGHT SINCE I STARTED FORECASTING IT...COMPUTERS ARE OUT TO LUNCH......KATRINA HAS A MIND OF HER OWN SHE IS A FICKLE FEMALE AND I KNOW HOW FICKLE FEMALES OPERATE.......THIS HAS BEEN A POST BY STORMTOPS NWS....
739. leftyy420
3:14 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
she showed a south jog and was calling for a cat 4 at the second landfall/ thats what i am talking about
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
738. hurricane79
3:12 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
Please lets pray she does not go far enough West to affect Pensacola. I don;t want to wich harm on anyone else, but those people do NOT need this.
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737. goularogue
3:08 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
what about the gfdl lefty?
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736. leftyy420
3:11 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
and possibky a cat 4 just keeo that in mind. i think this will be one of those storms u talk about for years. just being honest
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
735. hurricane79
3:11 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
I agree that Katrina will have winds of 120 to 140 MPH when it makes a second landfall
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734. HillsboroughBay
11:11 PM EDT on August 25, 2005
000
WTNT22 KNHC 260254
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z FRI AUG 26 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF JUPITER HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 80.7W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 80.7W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 80.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 81.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 31.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 37.0N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 80.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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733. Joshfsu123
3:08 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
This seems to be the most certain the NHC has been on the second landfall in a while. They are now quite certain a landfall may occur in the northeastern gulf (Which is the Florida Panhandle and Not Alabama or Louisiana).

I live in Tallahassee and if the forecast remains the same this area will begin to really prepare tomorrow. We are extremely at risk from the South.

The strength is also worrying me. I see it as a 65 mph Tropical Storm when it exits the coast and that is about 10 mph more than what the NHC is projecting. I could easily see this becoming a Cat. 3 which is something I couldn't see earlier today.
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732. hurricane79
3:01 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
I have 2 objections to the NHC forcast, 1 is the forcast intensity of on 45Knots in 12 hours, the second is that they do not slow down Katrina as the ridge retreats to the West, as she makes her turn North
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729. leftyy420
3:08 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
aw man yall watching the webcast yall here that, they expect southflorida to get hammered as she moves off land and itensifies with her wrapp around rain bamds
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
728. ejstrick
3:02 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
Has anyone in Jax thought of the
possibility of a backdoor hurricane
as there is not a lot of real estate
between the gulf and JAX? Believe
me I know as I enjoyed 3 months of
no AC due to adjuster backlog!!
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727. leftyy420
3:06 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
tried to tell ya about that gfdl model earlier lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
726. Joshfsu123
3:03 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
This is from the Discussion:

The high which is controlling the motion of the hurricane is forecast to move westward and a trough or weakness is expected to develop in the central Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should force Katrina on a more northerly track over the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the trough. This is consistent with most of the numerical guidance and the official forecast follows the global model consensus.

All indications are that Katrina will be a dangerous hurricane in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days.
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725. tpadan
3:02 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
Tampa weatherman says its not coming to tampa - southern movement means it is less likely to hit tampa. He showed a graphic that really showed how far south Katrina went from the NHC track.
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724. WSI
3:03 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
Stormtop, you don't have your own national weather service, and I think it prudent that you quit posting and acting like you do.
723. leftyy420
3:04 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
cat 4 not out of question in my book but a high end cat3 more likley
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
722. cajunkid
10:03 PM EST on August 25, 2005
Where is Dr Jeff?
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
721. leftyy420
3:02 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
this from the nhc disscussion

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
720. Canenut
3:01 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
Discussion:

THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE INTHE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS

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719. Joshfsu123
2:59 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
NHC forecast path has landfall very near to the Apalachicola area or maybe just east of there. The forecast path has been around the same area for the past two days really.

The Discussion isn't out yet to hear their reasoning for this.
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718. leftyy420
2:59 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
wow forcast still the same and the inesity forcast is for cat 2 in 72 hrs but that starts out as 40 moh ts, we will have to see
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
717. STORMTOP
2:43 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
11PM UPDATE ON HURRICANE KATRINA FROM STORMTOP NWS

SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE TAKEN PLACE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS..YOU GUYS WANTED TO KNOW WHY THE SW MOVEMENT WELL YOU CAN THANK THE STRONG TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE N FLORIDA AREA IS PUSHING KATRINA SW...IT WONT BE LONG BEFORE KATRINA IS OUT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WHEN SHE GETS OVER THE WARM WATERS A HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF HER COMBINED WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALREADY IN THE GULF WILL ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...OK THERE IS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT..IN THE ROCKIES THERE IS A STRONG TROUGH ALL SET TO COME DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BUT HAS NOT YET BEGAN TO MOVE..IT IS FORCASTED TO START MOVING IN THE NEAT 24 HOURS..KATRINA MEANWHILE WILL BE OVER THE GULF IN JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL BE PICKING UP SPEED AND STRENGTH...KATRINA WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY TROUGH UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL TURN HER WNW AND WILL ALSO RETREAT THE HIGH OVER THE GULFCOAST BACK INTO TEXAS...KATRINA SHOULD MAKE THE TURN TOWARDS THE WNW IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND 86 DEGREES THEN ON SUNDAY IT WILL TURN MORE NW AFTER REALLY BEING INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH...KATRINA AT THE TIME SHE TURNS NW WILL HAVE WINDS OF CAT 4 STRENGTH...145MPH..I AM SHIFTING THE TRACK A GOOD BIT WESTWARD AND THIS WILL COME OUT BY 5 AM TOMORROW MORNING...THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SATURDAY NIGHT AT 10PM AND IT WILL BE FROM NEW IBREIA LOUISIANA TO MOBILE ALABAMA...ON SUNDAY KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE SIZZLING WATERS OF THE GULF UNTIL LAND FALL JUST WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO PASS CHRISTIAN....PEOPLE THIS IS NO JOKE YOU NEED TO START TAKING ACTION THIS STORM WILL BE A CAT 5 WHEN IT HITS LAND WITH WINDS OF 180MPH...I WILL BE GIVING ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 8AM IN THE MORNING...PLEASE STAY TUNED....STORMTOP
716. leftyy420
2:56 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
1100 update out. 75 mph winds and moving sw at 8 mph
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
715. salter
10:50 PM EDT on August 25, 2005
tracker 19,
joe is saying that the storm will move over the gulf and head wnw then turn in above tampe then come out in the atlantic and blossom moving towards n.c.
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714. Dragoon
2:54 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
This storm is not weakening. Structurally it is as organized if not more organized than when it made landfall. The max winds may drop a bit due to the increased friction over land.. but this will still be a well organized system when it reaches the gulf. That will enable it to begin to tap into those bathwater type temps in the gulf almost immediately. The panhandle needs to watch out.
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713. Bamaman
2:52 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
I'm looking at the radar and it almost looks like it's getting stronger if possible. The eye has rain all around it now and it just looks pretty (you know for a storm). I'm now, while concerned about S Fl., also wondering what this does to the second landfall point. I'm in Mobile, AL so I'm a tad bit concerned but I'm still thinking between the NHC path and maybe Pensicola. This would obviously move it west but I was wondering if anyone thinks my neck of the woods could get hit by this storm.
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712. Canenut
2:55 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
11pm advisory, still 75mph, 984mb. second landfall 85kts 28.5/85.5...
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711. tpadan
2:55 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
Thank you, hurricane79.
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710. leftyy420
2:54 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
i am with 79, i expected a disorginised storm at this pont and even here sat sign looks better and the banding on radar is impressive
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
709. hurricane79
2:53 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
tpadan, it is one of the Hurricane center's 4 main computer models (Tropical dynamical guidance). Many times it has been an outlier, but occasionally it has grasped the troughs over the US better (ie Charley)
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708. leftyy420
2:51 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
yeah thats my feeling she will be pretty strong zand orginised when she reaches the gulf. steve lyons is an idiot lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
707. cajunkid
9:51 PM EST on August 25, 2005
I sware, I wish TWC would let Dr Lyons elaborate more. I know he knows more, or mabe he just dosn't want to speculate, it might be a liabilty sort of deal
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
706. tpadan
2:52 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
Anyone know anything about the a98E model (as noted, it shows this thing hitting tampa)
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705. hurricane79
2:50 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
goularouge, from what I have been seeing with the models that take Katrina to the Big Bend or Eastern Panhandle is that they slow Katrina down as she makes her turn to the right. Not to mention, the current track she is taking allows her to maintain more strength than forecasted by the NHC. Her core looks good and will re-intensify starting in 12 hours. I see her being a major hurricane at landfall, and I am usually fairly conservativew on intensity forecasts.
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704. leftyy420
2:50 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
lol tell that to denise and emily moving more than 20 mph and still reached major hurricane status
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
703. hurricane79
2:49 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
Lefty, she may not even lose hurricane strength since she is crossing in the Everglades, which is the flattest land in Florida, and is half water.
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702. leftyy420
2:49 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
k glad i could help. see those 3 yrs of computer science went somewhere lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
701. goularogue
2:47 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
Katrina will follow the model consensus into Appalachicola (sp)as a weak Cat 2 at best. She will be moving too fast for any major strengthening to take place.
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700. Canenut
2:47 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
I swear she's taking the path of least resistance back to water.
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699. hurricane79
2:48 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
If the a98E model is correct, Tampa is is some trouble...
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698. tracker19
2:40 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
GetReal,

Was Bastardi predicting?
697. leftyy420
2:48 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
man is she looking good on ir
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
696. cajunkid
9:46 PM EST on August 25, 2005
left, that divx download worked, just wish I had more time to do it earlier, I missed out on some cool footage
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
695. whitewabit (Mod)
2:47 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
good radar link

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
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694. Weather456
10:45 PM AST on August 25, 2005
Katrina, Katrina, -there's a depression forming in the atlantic.
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693. leftyy420
2:45 AM GMT on August 26, 2005
dunno. iwill watch the movement over the next hour. all i see is a sw or wsw potion but will keep tracking it. good work everybody.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
692. paulfrmpasschristian
9:45 PM EST on August 25, 2005
I wonder how Key Largo is doing?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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