Disturbance 98L forms north of the southern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on July 28, 2007

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A concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed just north of the southern Bahamas Islands this morning, in association with a broad surface trough of low pressure. The NHC labeled this disturbance "98L" this morning, and the preliminary computer model tracks have the system moving slowly to the north-northeast. An upper-level low pressure system to 98L's northeast is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear over the disturbance. The GFS model predicts that the upper low will move north-northeast in tandem with the disturbance, keeping low enough shear over it that a tropical depression could form. The other reliable models do not develop 98L. At present, it appears that Bermuda is the only place that needs to concern itself with 98L. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for 98L.

Jeff Masters

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907. msphar
2:23 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
West Pacific storm is forming nw of Guam and Saipan and moving off to the west, before recurving towards Japan. Not a concern for Guamian or Micronesian interests.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
906. IKE
2:19 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
905. HurricaneMyles
2:14 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
bappit...That was the newest microwave image I could find. Where are you seeing newer SSMI images? BTW, to see the URL of any image just right click it and select properties. Then you can make it a link.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
904. Stormy2day
2:11 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
bappit - LOL ...I'll take that as a "S2D, get back to your coffee!"
:-)
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
903. bappit
2:10 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
S2D, I think that's me.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6093
902. bappit
2:07 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Those TMI pics don't show as much, maybe they are a little older.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6093
901. Stormy2day
2:07 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
27/97 ish
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900. Stormy2day
2:05 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Is there something trying to spin in the GOM - directly off/on Texas?
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
899. bappit
2:04 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Hey, Taz, check out the SSMI 85GHz PCT pic of Usagi. It has an eye.

(Can't link to pics on that site and don't know how to post them on here.)
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6093
898. Tazmanian
2:02 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115359
897. HurricaneMyles
2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Definetly old Taz.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
896. Tazmanian
1:59 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
000
URPN12 KNHC 241932
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/19:15:50Z
B. 19 deg 58 min N
111 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1421 m
D. 25 kt
E. 221 deg 029 nm
F. 307 deg 030 kt
G. 221 deg 027 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 21 C/ 1525 m
J. 25 C/ 1524 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0217E PAUL OB 18
MAX FL WIND 53 KT E QUAD 17:50:00 Z
;




is this new or old?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115359
895. hurricane23
1:59 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
894. Tazmanian
1:58 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
well there all ways the 1st
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115359
893. HurricaneMyles
1:53 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Interesting thing about Usagi in the W. Pac is that for as great as it looks on sat images, the internal structure you might expect isn't there at all. Not even banding.

Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
892. CJ5
1:49 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Morin'in all.

It doesn't look like anything exciting to watch this am.

24/12 doesn't have much convection but it still has that broad area of upper circulation so it may develop into something later. This was my impressive Mali storm that I thought so highly of...not so much now but time will tell.

44/13 is dry as a bone and nothing remarkable with it.

59/19 is even worse.

98L doesn't look as impressive as it did this time yesterday but they are saying it could develop further but a fish storm it will be.

There are two back to back waves getting ready to come of of Africa and right now both further N (around 15N) than the last few.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
891. HurricaneMyles
1:44 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
stormybil...Pretty much no chance of that. The trough/front is going to keep it moving NE.
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890. Tazmanian
1:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
may be a eye wall of some kind? this is USAGI by the way

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115359
889. stormybil
1:40 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
is 98l going to track west in a couple of days ?
888. weathersp
1:37 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
That's yesterday's report taz... and Hipdeep I still have your comment from last night.. Take your time $100 for every person on this blog isn't much.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
886. Tazmanian
1:35 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
TropicalMan07 her you go to your ?

NOUS42 KNHC 281700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SAT 28 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115359
884. weathersp
1:33 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
I know they have been around.. They have some really good people like Elliot Abrams and Dr. Joe Sobel and I have alot of respect for them. But what I have found that when it comes to their forcasts I find that they are very unreliable. Thats just my opinion and I just as you have the right to voice it.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
883. Tazmanian
1:30 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
ok IKE
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115359
882. HurricaneMyles
1:29 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
weathersp...As much as I don't like Accuweather either, they are a professional site and have been for over two decades. Being around for that long means you're doing something right.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
881. weathersp
1:27 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
First of all.. Dew

Dont spam...

2nd... Accuweather(Inaccuweather) is NOT a professional site.. Its worthless.. I mean really, 15 day forcasts, come on.. get real.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
880. IKE
1:25 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
I know...I was agreeing with you TAZ.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
878. Tazmanian
1:24 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
thats what i this siad
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115359
877. IKE
1:22 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
I think the Navy site is having issues.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
876. Tazmanian
1:21 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
the navy site has been massing up a lot for the past few days so in tell the main navy site is fixs i would ues FNMOC site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115359
875. StormJunkie
1:17 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Interesting HM...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
874. HurricaneMyles
1:13 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
The FNMOC site still has 98L, but the NRL site shows nothing.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
873. dewfree
1:11 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
here is the july forecast from july to nov of tropical storms frequency.here is the july forecast from july to nov of tropical storms frequency.here is the july forecast from july to nov of tropical storms frequency.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
872. Bobbyweather
1:10 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Not actually a goner, but it's off the Navy site.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 90 Comments: 2669
870. HurricaneMyles
1:08 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
98L a goner? It just started looking good again. Give it a chance. Or at least provide some reasons why you think it's a goner.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
869. IKE
1:07 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 8:02 AM CDT on July 29, 2007.
98L is a goner


I disagree...I think it's headed toward a TD...then Chantal. May take a couple of days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
868. Bobbyweather
1:02 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
98L is a goner
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 90 Comments: 2669
867. HurricaneMyles
12:58 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
SJ, the CV low is intriguing. There's been no convection around it for 24hrs, it's amazing it's stayed intact.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
866. MrNiceville
12:58 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Thanks Smyrick.

Well, looks like we may get some precip late in the week. Great - I'm driving back from NOLA on Friday afternoon and we have a band "preview" for this year's halftime show at the local high school Friday night...

What's going on out in the CATL (besides the invest) - is anything starting to develop from any of the waves that exited Africa last week?
865. Smyrick145
12:50 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Hey guys

If your interested in the models predicting a low forming in the NE GOM later this week. Copy and paste this link for a sypnosis. http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html
Member Since: September 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
864. MrNiceville
12:48 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Well, looks like it's shaping up to be a beautiful day down here. We're headed out to Tops'l to have breakfast with some friends that are camping out there. Then, back to do some yardwork while I'm "unemployed" for two days...
863. HurricaneMyles
12:48 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Hipdeep...If quikscat shows it, then it's at the surface. It might be in the middle-upper atmosphere, too, but it's definetly surfaced based.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
862. IKE
12:45 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:44 AM CDT on July 29, 2007.
Thanks.

Nothing to do with that motly area of showers in the central GOM right now, eh?


I don't think so.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
861. MrNiceville
12:44 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Thanks.

Nothing to do with that motly area of showers in the central GOM right now, eh?
859. StormJunkie
12:42 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
With a distinct area of cyclonic turning hip, albeit not very organized as of that Quickscat.


So no comments on the CV apparent closed or slightly elongated low on the Quickscat?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
858. IKE
12:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2007
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:36 AM CDT on July 29, 2007.
Morning...

Ike, are the NAM and GFS spinning something up in the GOM?

(I'm being lazy - haven't checked the models)


The GFS has been consistent with low pressure in the NE GOM toward the end of this week...the NAM only goes out 84 hours, but seems to be hinting at something in the NE GOM.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.