Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2007

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Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.

Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.

Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.

June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.

23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters

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1009. bellestarr
9:23 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: hornfan at 9:19 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.

Here's hoping that it clears quickly and you get some much needed drying out time...
Yes - but Houston needs some time to dry out but there are many more areas in Texas that have been hit harder - SAT went thru another set of storms yesterday - the area between SAt and HOU has been getting hit. And Northern Texas has its issues too. It is all saturated -- there is no where for it go - All of us can take massive amounts of rain but the rain has been going on for a long time

I agree. A small shower right now will get you stuck in the immediate mud. There is no room left for moisture, no where for it to go.
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1008. StormJunkie
2:25 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Yes Drak, that is likely the one the GFS shows this run, but it has shown both develop at some point over the past four runs and now there is a closed surface low with the 45w wave. Worth keeping an eye on.
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1006. Hawkeyewx
9:23 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
Junkie, I think the 11N 45W disturbance would have a real shot if it wasn't being smacked by upper level easterlies.
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1005. TropicalNonsense
2:24 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
you have to give the Development process a chance.

winds are There.
Convection will most likely come back tommorow.

If Shear Drops You will see a Depression within 48
Hrs if it doesnt make landfall First.

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1004. Drakoen
2:23 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
It only took one look at the cyclone phase diagram to confirm this.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG 7N31W 16N27W MOVING W 10 KT. A SMALL
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N30W...AND THIS IS THE FOCUS OF A
RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

(thats your wave)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31903
1003. StormJunkie
2:23 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Yes it was Hawk, great to see you around :-)
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1002. LSU
2:19 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
TropicalNonsense....just stop, man. The blob is not a depression, nor will it be. You claim to have 25 years of weather experience yet you are trying to equate gusts at a buoy with a scale that measures sustained winds?
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1001. StormJunkie
2:20 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Drak, the 18z GFS is picking up on the EATL wave imho

but, the 42w wave has a closed low and convection and the conditions are not overly hostile. Some dust to the NW. Other then that and the fact that it will at some point push a little S before moving back to the W WNW are the only real thing hindering it imho.
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1000. moonlightcowboy
2:21 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:16 AM GMT on July 27, 2007. (hide)
I hate to burst everyones bubble but the wave of Africa isn't what the GFS is developing...



...it's the lil booger of a wave sw of the Verde's, right DRakoen?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
999. bellestarr
9:10 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: MrNiceville at 9:09 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.

Evenin' all - just checking in...

Any new blobs to discuss? I'm tired of the GOM blob - all it does is send us cloud cover to obscure our money making sunshine down here...

hope that y'all over in TX are doin' ok - is it throwing precipitation at ya, or just cloud cover?

Well, I'm in the hill country for a few days showing/selling goats and it's done nothing but rain off and on all day...pretty good showers. Left central tx this morning, done the same there. Can imagine what the coast is getting!
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998. Hawkeyewx
9:21 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
StormJunkie, was that you who called into the Barometer Bob show?

Edit: I guess Moonlight already answered my question.
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997. Drakoen
2:21 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
lol pottery i like the suspense...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31903
996. moonlightcowboy
2:16 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Great BBob show! Also was great to "hear" Patrap and SJ! And, SL, too!

Butch has his hands full, like EM's. Great idea though to get a group of coastal counties together throughout the Gulf region I thought--where the real meat and potatoes are from and get the job done. They need all the help they can get!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
995. pottery2
10:19 PM AST on July 26, 2007
Drak. Having bust the bubble, please continue........
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994. MikeOhio
2:20 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Posted By: TropicalNonsense at 2:15 AM GMT on July 27, 2007.

Gulf Buoy's Now Reporting Wind Gusts Over 35 MPH.

42019:
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts (35 Mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
-----------------------------------------

SSimpson Wind Scale

Depression TD ----- < 34 < 39

Tropical Storm TS ----- 34-63 39-73
Hurricane 1 ----- 74+


LOL

You just don't quit the wishing do you?
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992. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:15 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
i know k m but it still has to be mention because it is be shown by model an yes of coarse it can change weather changes all the time sometimes unexpectly
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991. hornfan
2:15 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Here's hoping that it clears quickly and you get some much needed drying out time...
Yes - but Houston needs some time to dry out but there are many more areas in Texas that have been hit harder - SAT went thru another set of storms yesterday - the area between SAt and HOU has been getting hit. And Northern Texas has its issues too. It is all saturated -- there is no where for it go - All of us can take massive amounts of rain but the rain has been going on for a long time
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990. RL3AO
9:17 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
Nonsense, it has to have a closed low level circulation which it has nothing close to it to be a depression.
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989. Drakoen
2:14 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
I hate to burst everyones bubble but the wave of Africa isn't what the GFS is developing...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31903
988. TropicalNonsense
2:14 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Gulf Buoy's Now Reporting Wind Gusts Over 35 MPH.

42019:
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts (35 Mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
-----------------------------------------

SSimpson Wind Scale

Depression TD ----- < 34 < 39

Tropical Storm TS ----- 34-63 39-73
Hurricane 1 ----- 74+
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
987. MrNiceville
2:13 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Apologies - I didn't realize it was that serious - haven't talked to my sis in Houston in several weeks. Here's hoping that it clears quickly and you get some much needed drying out time...
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986. StormJunkie
2:13 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Drak, the CATL?
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985. KoritheMan
9:06 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
developement it will be within next 5 to 7 days according to models showing a storm on east coast by next sat.

Do you realize how unreliable model forecasts are THAT far out? Even with cosensus...
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983. hornfan
2:07 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
gom blob will fire back up in the morning once daytime heating kicks in lots of very heavy rain from south central texas all the way to l.a along the coastly areas do to a tropical like enhancement will provide a good chance of flooding rains a sweeping cold front will drop down from nw an provide additional enhancing of precip with severve weather from nor.central texas all the way up to the lower great lakes by noon tomorrow then track to east coast from n.e all the way down to fla as for any t.s or hurr. developement it will be within next 5 to 7 days according to models showing a storm on east coast by next sat.

Let's put it in common sense English - if this blobby thingee come ashore in E Texas - it is major flooding in area that are already saturated. It also slows the release of the river control situation up north. B/c for those that don't know - alot of the lake in Texas are reservoirs with flood gates to control the flow down south - hmm let's see - the Comal , Brazos, Trinity, -- I am sure that I forgot a few - so it is an issue
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982. pottery2
10:08 PM AST on July 26, 2007
OK Storm. Thanks.
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981. MrNiceville
2:06 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Evenin' all - just checking in...

Any new blobs to discuss? I'm tired of the GOM blob - all it does is send us cloud cover to obscure our money making sunshine down here...

hope that y'all over in TX are doin' ok - is it throwing precipitation at ya, or just cloud cover?
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980. stoormfury
2:02 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
my apologies i was refering to the CALT system
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979. FTmyersZ
10:03 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
Keep talk'n TN :)
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978. Drakoen
2:04 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Posted By: Canesfan68 at 2:03 AM GMT on July 27, 2007.

Thanks Drak, what do you think of this wave?


it has convection but that is mainly east of the circulation center. There is 20-30kts of wind shear that should stop any development in the short term.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31903
977. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:43 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
gom blob will fire back up in the morning once daytime heating kicks in lots of very heavy rain from south central texas all the way to l.a along the coastly areas do to a tropical like enhancement will provide a good chance of flooding rains a sweeping cold front will drop down from nw an provide additional enhancing of precip with severve weather from nor.central texas all the way up to the lower great lakes by noon tomorrow then track to east coast from n.e all the way down to fla as for any t.s or hurr. developement it will be within next 5 to 7 days according to models showing a storm on east coast by next sat.
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976. Drakoen
2:03 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 270155
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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975. Canesfan68
2:02 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Thanks Drak, what do you think of this wave?
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974. TropicalNonsense
2:01 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Very True Micheal.

If it can Survive till in the Morning the shear
will be dropping and The Dimax Will Pick it Back
Up. Winds are already AT 30 Kts Someplaces
in The Gulf.

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973. Drakoen
2:01 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
hes talking about the wave at 10N 45W in the CATL in association with a 1010mb low.
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972. Hawkeyewx
9:01 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
fury must be talking about the disturbance at 11N 45W.
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971. pottery2
10:00 PM AST on July 26, 2007
Which system, Stormfury?
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970. Canesfan68
2:00 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
fury, which system are you referring to?
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969. Drakoen
1:59 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
yea there is 20-30kts of easterly wind shear over the system.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31903
968. pottery2
9:57 PM AST on July 26, 2007
Drak, I will be on the North point of Tobago next week for 10 days. Looks like I may get rain from that one......
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967. stoormfury
1:48 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
the system is now under the fringes of 20 knots on the eastern side. as the area moves more to the WNW to an area of lesser shear, convection will start to build on the eastern side
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966. Drakoen
1:55 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
yea it does pottery i should be of the coast in a few hours. ALOT of moisture associated wiht the tropical wave.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31903
965. stormwatcher247
1:52 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Nice comment Lefty
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963. pottery2
9:46 PM AST on July 26, 2007
Hi Drak. Thanks. Have not seen one as big as that so far this season, Looks to have a lot of potential convection available to it.
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962. TropicalNonsense
1:48 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Continuous Winds TIME
(Wind Speed WSPD

7:50 pm ESE ( 110 deg ) 24.1 kts
7:40 pm ESE ( 112 deg ) 23.1 kts
7:30 pm ESE ( 114 deg ) 23.1 kts
7:20 pm ESE ( 112 deg ) 21.0 kts
7:10 pm ESE ( 102 deg ) 21.0 kts
7:00 pm ESE ( 105 deg ) 20.0 kts
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960. Buhdog
1:46 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Hey SJ!
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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