Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2007

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Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.

Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.

Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.

June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.

23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters

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1109. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:15 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
gom giving false echo its the convective effect being sheared ene tomorrow convection will again be intense beginning in west near texas sou/cen coast and bubble up all along the coast to l.a. if the pattern continues expect some very heavy rain till after sunset tomorrow
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1108. Drakoen
3:22 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
lol RL3AO...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31043
1106. RL3AO
10:19 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
If you look at the pic Nonsense posted it looks like a nice wave coming off of India. Will have to keep our eye on it as it is about 2 weeks away from the Atlantic.



P.S.: That was a joke.
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1105. nolasoci
3:20 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Isn't 992 mb's too high for a Cat 5?? Doesn't the MB's have to be in the lower 900's??
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1104. pottery2
11:15 PM AST on July 26, 2007
Right, thanks Drak. I can see clearly now etc.
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1102. Hawkeyewx
10:18 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
I think the 35w wave is the one to watch

The circulations are at 45W and 30W.
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1101. AG3MO
3:07 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Is the blob in the GOM moving onshore overnight. If not won't the diurnal effects along with the weakening shear, produce likely TD conditions?? I do agree though as I said earlier tonight that the most promising features are moving off of Africa
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1100. nolasoci
3:17 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
The blob in the GOM is moving towards the Texas and Louisiana coast. Nothing much happening. New Orleans saw a drizzle today with gusty winds. The blob I am watching is blob at 35w
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1099. RL3AO
10:17 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
I think the 35w wave is the one to watch
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1098. Drakoen
3:16 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Stormybil the thing in the GULF is just high clouds not much going on at the SFC. the wave to watch is at 14N 30W.
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1097. TropicalNonsense
3:15 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
blobby
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1096. stormybil
3:13 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
ok guys which wave is the bestto watch tonight is it the 35 west wave or the 40 w wave . and is the blob in gom moving ne or east now did the sheer get lower thanks
1095. Drakoen
3:14 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
yea CJ5..
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1094. CJ5
10:12 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
I find the silence quite refreshing for a change.
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1093. nolasoci
3:11 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Hey everyone! I am looking at the wave in the atlantic and the GFS makes it to a 992mb and making landfall around South Carolina. Of course this is way out there and things can change quickly
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1092. MrNiceville
3:09 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
(chirp, chirp, chirp)
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1091. CJ5
10:09 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: KEEPEROFTHEGATE at 10:09 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.

currently on a blog wall replacement cycle


bwhahahahha
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1090. Drakoen
3:10 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
yea MLC we will have to see what happens during the diurnal max phase.
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1089. moonlightcowboy
3:10 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
lol, Keeper!
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1088. Drakoen
3:09 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
LMAO
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1087. moonlightcowboy
3:09 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Drakoen, both waves in the 805TWD have language that looks interesting.
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1086. CJ5
10:08 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 10:07 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.

heh blog got quite...


everyone is staring at sats looking for circulation and convection.
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1085. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:08 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
currently on a blog wall replacement cycle
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1084. Drakoen
3:07 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
heh blog got quite...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31043
1083. RL3AO
9:59 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
I think the 35w wave might be the one. It has the 45w wave to keep the SAL away from it and it will be entering a somewhat favorable area.
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1082. CJ5
9:51 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
It looks like the 35w is causing some excitement tonight. That and the African wave both are areas to watch as they have been for several days. Time will tell how they pan out. Some cnditions are promising some are not.

The blob in the GOM will bring lots of rain to the gulf coast and that is probably all.
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1081. Drakoen
2:57 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
lol MLC...
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1080. stormybil
2:55 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
just got home the gom didnt make texas still in the gulf and now its moving east am i right like i posted on page 7 ?
1079. moonlightcowboy
2:55 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Have a good one, TCC!


....dang, Drakoen...you sure are the "fastest" at posting applicable graphics! Great, perfect circles, too! whew...lol
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1078. moonlightcowboy
2:54 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Here's a sfc map. Find the wave at 14n,30w. That's what we're watching and what Drakoen and I agree is what the models are focusing on. IMHO.
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1077. Drakoen
2:54 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
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1075. moonlightcowboy
2:53 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Here's a good shot of both waves. Scroll over and up or down to get a good close up look. For added frame length click on 24.

...agree, Drakoen. Last night when everyone was talking the model's forecast, they were thinking it was the wave "over" Africa; but it wasn't. It was this wave already over the water.
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1074. Tazmanian
7:49 PM PDT on July 26, 2007
ok wish one is it


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1073. pottery2
10:46 PM AST on July 26, 2007
I'm getting confused here. Will someone post a map showing Blob 1, Blob 2, etc. So that we can know who is discussing what ??
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1072. Bobbyweather
10:49 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
it's italic.
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1071. Tazmanian
7:48 PM PDT on July 26, 2007
Drakoen i no that part
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1070. Drakoen
2:48 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
the area at 14N 30w is what we should be watching according to the models
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1066. moonlightcowboy
2:46 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
11n,47w is looking good, too! lol
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1065. Drakoen
2:46 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
Taz that shows winds not thunderstorm activity
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1064. MrNiceville
2:41 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
The show is up on the archive page, now. I love it "Bob on the Blob"...
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1063. Bobbyweather
10:46 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
?? Don't know. 98L not here yet?
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1061. Tazmanian
7:44 PM PDT on July 26, 2007
Drakoen i see that wave has 25kt of wind but not march t-storms to it
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1060. pottery2
10:42 PM AST on July 26, 2007
Mine is not bold. Whats up with you guys ??
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1059. Drakoen
2:44 AM GMT on July 27, 2007
please don't use bold text. The low that i just posted the GFS has the low moving south then north according to the cyclone phase diagram.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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