Quiet Atlantic; police blow up weather station

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 23, 2007

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There's not much to talk about in the Atlantic today. A tropical wave we were watching (97L), east of Bermuda, has moved north over colder waters and is no longer a threat to develop. A large area of Saharan dust and dry air is present between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, which will discourage any development in this region over the next few days. Later in the week, the UKMET and ECMWF models are hinting that conditions may moisten enough for something to develop off the coast of Africa. However, tropical storm formation in this region is unusual in July, and I'd be surprised if something did develop.

The long range GFS model shows that the steering pattern for the next two weeks will be much different than what we saw in 2006 and so far in 2007. We will no longer have a dominant trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that will act recurve storms out to sea. Instead, an alternating series of weak ridges and weak troughs rippling along the jet stream is expected. No particular region of the Atlantic will be at higher risk of being hit with such a pattern.

Police robot blows up weather station
If you've never seen one before, familiarize yourself with what a weather stations looks like. State Police in Virginia had apparently never seen one before, and sent a police robot in to blow up a "suspicious object" hanging from a tree near a hospital in Virginia. The object turned out to be a home weather station. A tree is not a very good place to put a weather station--how can you measure accurate precipitation and winds there? Perhaps that's what the police were wondering, too, and this made them suspicious enough to terminate the threatening weather station.

In case you missed it, here's my analysis of the QuikSCAT science presented at Thursday's Congressional hearing.

Jeff Masters

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662. msphar
12:43 PM GMT on July 24, 2007
SW Monsoon weather reached here (tahoe) yesterday. First clouds in oh say, 3 or 4 months. Forecast is 50% this AM and 40% this afternoon for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
661. IKE
12:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
658. msphar
12:37 PM GMT on July 24, 2007
I'll make a prediction, sometime in the 3 - 4 weeks, the 48 hour message will be replaced.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
657. IKE
12:36 PM GMT on July 24, 2007
It's raining here right now in the panhandle of Florida.

Rain/thunder and 71 degrees.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
654. msphar
12:32 PM GMT on July 24, 2007
Another 48 hour reprieve, sweet.

If it can just stretch out this way for another 10 days, I can stay home for the wife's b-day. My focus is the CV sourced storms.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
653. keywestdingding
12:28 PM GMT on July 24, 2007
maybe we'll have a parade of storms this year. like there was in 1995
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
651. catastropheadjuster
12:16 PM GMT on July 24, 2007
Good Morning all. So is the tropics still quite? Been really sick and haven't been able to get on that much.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
650. emagirl
12:15 PM GMT on July 24, 2007
By: StormJunkie at 12:11 PM GMT on July 24, 2007.

Morning all ☺

Looks like the GFS is calling for pretty significant develop off the coast of Africa.

Do you know how soon??
647. StormJunkie
12:11 PM GMT on July 24, 2007
Morning all ☺

Looks like the GFS is calling for pretty significant develop off the coast of Africa.

Easily find many model pages from here.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
646. ustropics
11:00 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
I'm over in Hudson and have been monitoring this through out the morning. Strong thunderstorms seem headed towards Hernando County stretching down to Pinellas County.
645. VTG
10:19 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
HUGE thunderstorms in Pensacola right now!
Member Since: August 15, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 1739
644. dewfree
9:39 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
contradiction sometimes yields the best results . however please dont take it to heart . just a tool i use generate a better understanding of the wider and much bigger pic . no and i mean no forecast is solid in a world with liquid motion involved in the processes.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
643. dewfree
9:23 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
the wave comming off the coast of africa on the 384 hour run of the GFS model is an echo for a later date . the model is a very good model it see;s things long before they arrive on seen .sometimes that is .but rember it is too far out to be any good to you and me .niether you or I can use this data at present time for anything other then close observance of the next run to see how it pans out . make no mistake about it sooner or later it will pan out but dont expect the time runs to be accurate in theleast ;also the global model changes with veriation so you know how it is . i guess with nothing happening the search way out like this is what goes lol see ya later have a good one you guys . im out of here ounce again .
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
642. NorthxCakalaky
7:33 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
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641. ustropics
6:53 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Drak if you are still out there look at the 850 vort too. There is some lower level activity in the NE gulf I think.

Looking on radar not much convection is associated with this area. Pressure is around 1011.

Given the increased shear, a steering flow that favors a quick NE movement, and this lows proximity to land any type of spin-up is unlikely to occur.
640. KoritheMan
6:23 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Don't forget that heat also causes low pressure areas to form. Africa is hot, so naturally, waves have low pressures. That probably aids in cyclogenesis. A 1003 mb low is quite low though, but I've seen this happen too many times this season only to do nothing.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21112
639. stormybil
6:06 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
the low over africa is 1003mb hmmmm
637. KoritheMan
5:59 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
JFLORIDA, looking at that link, some nice vorticy by the Cape Verde islands as well.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21112
635. KoritheMan
5:42 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
I believe things will start to flare up by July 31. For some reason, that date sticks out to me, since TD3 that would become Chris in 2006 formed on July 31. After that, I predict about 4 storms in August, bringing us up to Felix. In September, I predict that we will get about 6 storms, bringing us up to Lorenzo. In October, I predict we'll get 2 more storms, bringing us up to Noel. In November, I believe we'll get Olga.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21112
634. bluehaze27
5:35 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Hello to any nocturnal creatures out there. I suppose I'll give my two cents on when things will flair up. It appears that things are about to start popping. I'd say we will start seeing things by the end of the first week of August into the second week. We will see three in a row lining up for a couple of weeks and then nothing for two more weeks (clean up somewhere) in early September followed by another spat of storms towards the middle to end of September and then a few more gulf storms in middle October running into early November. Of course this is a wild ass guess (wag) but hey let's face it, hurricane season is as predictable as it is unpredictable. As I mentioned a few weeks back, hurricane season should begin Aug. 1st not June 1st. and end November 15th. Sure storms fall outside these dates but then again hurricanes have formed in every month.
Member Since: March 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 813
633. moonlightcowboy
5:20 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT Tue Jul 24 2007

...Atlantic Ocean...
large deep layered low is over the E US extending into the W Atlc N of 26n W of 74w with a associated surface trough extending into the region near 32n75w over Florida near Lake Okeechobee. The large upper high in the W Caribbean extends a ridge axis across central Cuba NE to 33n62w covering the remainder of the W Atlc W of 60w giving the area small clusters of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms W of 70w. An upper low is in the central Atlc centered near 24n52w covering the area N of 17n from 48w-60w. An upper ridge covers the E Atlc E of 30w extending E/W along 23w. A surface ridge with dry stable air covers the Atlc E of 65w anchored by a 1032 mb high and a 1031 mb high well N of the region producing only fair weather clouds across the remainder of the area.

$$
Wallace


MLCgoodnight4.gif

Have a good sleep, all!
MLC <---------------------out for some shut-eye!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
632. Blink
5:14 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
The steering currents is not looking good for the Gult coast as MrNiceville pointed out.
Link
630. moonlightcowboy
5:06 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Have a good sleep, Nice and t'man!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
629. moonlightcowboy
5:03 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Great story, Niceville! Hopefully, you won't be a storm magnet this time...lol.

...though I have nothing to back it up with really, for some reason I think Chantal will be a Texas landfalling storm. Probably will be a fizzle, but we'll see soon enough, I'm sure!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
627. MrNiceville
5:01 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Gotta punch out - have soccer taxi in the morning. Will check in b4 I hit the road...
626. MrNiceville
4:59 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
LOL - MLC!

No - not related - but I do stay at Holiday Inn Express when I'm on the road...

Seriously - I'm in IT - consulting - going over to help out Ochsner Medical Services. Unfortunately, the campus is down on the river - right where you don't want to be in a storm...

My entire family (excepting one sis) is in NOLA, so it works for me - I have distractions from the problems there. But it was nice to be on the scene when dad (74 yrs old) needed help after Katrina...
625. dewfree
4:58 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
to be honest im just messing around here i havent even watched closely enough to be in the discusion . i have kind of droped in and droped out so far this season . I havent heard anything promising so i havent stayed in the game , but i dont for see the storm that will grasp my attention to get me in the game untill sept 1rst threw 10th . that ime persiond is hot and will most likely be the time i get in the game watching tropical systems come and go . . not really all that into this blog right now watching kick boxing lol be have have a good one see ya later
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
624. MrNiceville
4:56 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
SW made a comment earlier about steering currents. If you look at the forecast, it's not very kind to the entire gulf coast from LA and points east...

While I don't think anything will come of it, I'm watching that wave that's egressing into the Bay of Campeche - we've had several bad storms come in from that creche...
622. moonlightcowboy
4:55 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Teaching, medical, or storm related business?

You related to Jim Cantore? lol
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
621. dewfree
4:54 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
many candidates will come and go but tell me where will the storm come from that you can see and of course it isnt rocket sience where it will go but where will it come from ??
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
620. MrNiceville
4:53 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Nothing much, science-wise.

Just I moved to the FL panhandle in '94. We had several bad TS that year - Opal the next and a progression after that.

I went to NOLA on contract August 21, 2005. You know what happened there...

I just took another contract in NOLA. My friends were joking earlier that NOLA better watch it - the hurricane magnet is coming back to town...

I told Pat to strap some pontoons on that trailer and make room for my sister and her kids...
618. MrNiceville
4:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
The biggest problem will be that shear is forecast to rise to the "unfavorable" level in the area of that wave in about 44 hours time...
617. moonlightcowboy
4:50 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
I'm sorry, Niceville. Which comment? I think so, the NOLA contract? What's that about?

L8R, T'man!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
615. MrNiceville
4:49 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Trustable is a relative term.

GFS was a cyclogenesis powerhouse last year. Now the mantle has been passed to the CMC...

GFS may be right on the wave, tho. Enough moisture, no horrible shear, SSTs in range - it could happen. I'd watch for a shift in the ITCZ, though - that would trap it and kill it very quickly. It's happened several times already this season...
614. stormybil
4:47 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
i belive the gfs is correct its now the time to keep close tabs in the atlantic .
613. Blink
4:46 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
One of the most trustable models is the GFS. I am not gonna get down to conclusion until the next few runs.
612. MrNiceville
4:43 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
MLC - were you around for my contract comment earlier?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.