QuikSCAT science at yesterday's hearing
Dr. Robert Atlas, director of the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory--the parent organiztion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division--testified at yesterday's Congressional hearing, on the science of QuikSCAT. In his written testimony, Dr. Atlas presented a good summary of QuikSCAT science:
There are three studies that address the potential degradation to computer hurricane forecasts that might result from the loss of QuikSCAT. Each of these studies has limitations that prevent definitive conclusions, and additional studies are needed. In my opinion, the preponderance of evidence from the three studies indicates that computer model forecasts of landfalling hurricanes, especially in the 2-5-day time range, could be degraded if we do not mitigate the loss effectively. Forecasters at the NHC are able to improve upon the computer forecasts, so that the potential degradation can be diminished. This is especially true as the storms are approaching land in the shorter time ranges. In addition, NOAA has recently developed an effective mitigation plan that would make substantial use of other satellites as well as enhanced aircraft observations.
I was pleased to see Dr. Atlas mentioning many of the uncertainties I've been drawing attention to. In his verbal comments, he offered a theory as to why the study done using the Navy NOGAPS model showed little effect of QuikSCAT on hurricane track forecasts. The NOGAPS model inserts a "bogus" vortex where a tropical cyclone exists, and this bogus vortex is resistant to modification by winds from QuikSCAT. The GFS model, used in the QuikSCAT study Bill Proenza cited, does not do vortex bogusing.
Dr. Atlas was not questioned about the uncertainties of QuikSCAT's impact on hurricane track forecasts, which surprised me. The general consensus among Congress members seemed to be that QuikSCAT was a valuable enough satellite that it deserved to be replaced, regardless of whether Mr. Proenza exaggerated its importance or not. No one talked about the need to cut any hurricane funding to pay for QuikSCAT, and a number of Congressmen thought we should be spending more. Congressman Ehlers (R-Michigan) said, "I think we have given short shrift to NOAA and its satellite program, considering how much is spent on the satellite programs for the Department of Defense, Global Positioning System, and NASA."
QuikSCAT science in the independent panel's report
The independent panel sent by NOAA to investigate management problems at the National Hurricane Center talked extensively about QuikSCAT (Attachment 9 of the written testimony of the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Conrad Lautenbacher). The report said that mistrust of Bill Proenza by the staff was, in part, caused by disagreements about the science of QuikSCAT:
"Statements by the director about the limited lifetime of the QuikSCAT satellite and the resulting impact on forecasts--made without context or caveat--raised public doubt about the center's ability to perform its mission and distracted center staff from doing their jobs." And: One senior hurricane specialist noted that the director repeatedly quoted him out of context about the potential impact of QuikSCAT's loss even after the director was told that he was in error.
Had I been a senior forecaster at the NHC, I would have raised the same issues, and spoken out against the misrepresentation of the QuikSCAT science that occurred. The director of the NHC must be honest with the uncertainties in the science if he is to be entrusted with the most important job in weather.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yes..July has its aft boomers..LOL
I grew up in Texas chasing tornados out in fields in the middle of nowhere with my friends. Seems to me that anyone who is passionate about weather feels they have some Native American in them wanting to share thier unique gift with the world...hehe
But seriously, I have enjoyed Pat and SK and I can respect them both along with many others here. I hae wanted to share my forecasts, Satelite opinions and whatknot (pun) but I feel too much of a newb when it cames to this fancy technology.
I still chase tornados here in NE Florida and have on occasion taken a coworker out to show them a tornado as it forms and touches down. Yes I have been lucky it that regard.
FYI, I am a horrible speller and proof reader so please bare with me. And if I get flamed, I will not likely post often. I suffer from similar things as SK demonstrates...LOL (sorry SK)
I try really hard to not over use CAPS but like SK, it gets away form me. I hope NOT to offend ANYONE (lol).
Looking forward to getting to know you guys and hopefully you will be interested in getting to know me.
As far as I can tell I am the boards only Bubblehead (submariner;fast attack) so I will sign as...
-Bubblehead
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 21 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-059 (CORRECTED TAKE OFF TIME)
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 22/1300Z
D. 32.0N 64.0W
E. 18Z 21Z
F. 1500 FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/0100Z
D. 35.0N 64.5W
F. 05Z 09Z
G. SFC 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE.
II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SMR
An invest will likely be tagged on this area later this afternoon but as i stated a track out to sea looks like a good bet with the approaching cold front.
I know the NAM hasn't quite hit anything on the spot so far this season...lol (understatement). But if you look at the area that just came of of south america...there is heavy convection firing up...and it looks like some sort of circulation near that. Looks like thats what the NAM might be picking up. But again...the models haven't been doing so hot!
I agree about the NAM.
I see an area north of Puerto Rico + one coming off of South America...on water vapor loop...
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i would be happy to share them with you growcartmazart....i for one do not use computers i think they are the biggest waste of time during hurricane season especially for GOM STORMS...THE REASON WHY I USE CAPS IS TO GET MY POINT ACROSS..."
And the reason I use the ignore key is to get MY point across (notice the appropriate use of the caps key...)
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
YAY! I GET TO USE MY NEW HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT AND DATA TRACKER!
Currently in Nassau we have rain (started about 20 minutes ago). I'm assuming this is prefrontal. Hopefully this will pass and push whatever is hanging around that ULL off to the east or north . . .
1) QuickSCAT makes hurricane forecasts more accurate.
2) Risking lives sending in more planes because we can not find the money to replace QuickSCAT is immoral! Have you read Master's description of how he almost lost his life on such a flight?
3) All the discussion of public confidence in the NHC sounds like hollow PR positioning to me. Is there really any doubt that the forecasts are better with QuickSCAT? Lets look more at reality and less at public perceptions.
4) Other weather forecasters need QuickSCAT. Proenza knows that from his previous jobs. Pacific tropical storm forecasters need QuickSCAT and can't replace it with more plane flights.
5) Just to inject some politics, we are spending hundreds of billions on a PR job of a war in Iraq, billions in tax breaks for the wealthy, and can't afford to replace a single aging weather satellite? Give me a break!
Full disclosure: I am living on my boat in the Caribbean and the forecasters I use refer to QuickSCAT data daily and would have no alternative data available should it fail.
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