Probe recommends Proenza's permanent removal; Atlantic and Hawaiian tropical update
At a Congressional hearing yesterday, results of the independent probe sent by NOAA to investigate management problems at the National Hurricane Center were presented by Dr. Jim Turner. Dr. Turner is deputy director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and was leader of the independent team of five people sent to NHC on July 2. Their report (Attachment 9) recommended the permanent removal of Bill Proenza as director of NHC (also called the Tropical Prediction Center, or TPC):
"The current TPC director should be reassigned and not be allowed to return to his position at the center. This should be done due to his failure to demonstrate leadership within the TPC rather than his public statements about the QuikSCAT satellite or NOAA leadership."
In his testimony, the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Conrad Lautenbacher, presented some very damaging evidence against Mr. Proenza. Lautenbacher's written testimony includes a letter (Attachment 2) providing a detailed description of a conference call requested by 11 NHC employees (including 7 of 9 of the hurricane forecasters), with the acting head of the National Weather Service, Mary Glackin. If you want to better understand the NHC controversy, read Attachment 2 describing what was said during the June 19 meeting.
I'll make one more post this afternoon analyzing the science of what was presented at the Congressional hearing. Then, it's time to let this issue fade until the next Congressional hearing on the issue, tentatively planned for December or January. The tropics are starting to heat up, and it's time to focus on the coming hurricane season.
Tropical wave near Puerto Rico
A tropical wave near Puerto Rico is spreading clouds and thunderstorms over a wide area of the Eastern Caribbean, northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and surrounding waters. This wave is under about 20-30 knots of wind shear, thanks to the presence of an upper-level low pressure system to its northwest (Figure 1). This upper low is expected to stay in place an continue to bring hostile wind shear to the area the next few days. I don't expect the shear will allow anything to develop from this tropical wave.
Figure 1. Water vapor image from this morning showing the tropical wave near Puerto Rico, and the upper level low with dry air (dark colors) to its northwest. This upper level low sucking in moist air from the tropical wave, and is bringing hostile wind shear of 20-30 knots over it.
We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. Most of the models are predicting the formation of a low pressure system along the tail end of this front by Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm--or possibly a subtropical storm--due to the presence of high wind shear. NHC has put a Hurricane Hunter aircraft on standby to investigate the region on Sunday afternoon, if necessary. Even if the low is extratropical, it may be able to suck up plenty of tropical moisture and douse the mid-Atlantic coast and/or New England with heavy rains as early as Monday.
Cosme to skirt Hawaii
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands can relax a bit now, as it appears that Tropical Depression Cosme, will pass well south of the Big Island on Saturday. The edges of the outermost spiral bands will probably bring rains of 1-3 inches to the east side of the Big Island. Wind shear has fallen to 5-10 knots, and ocean temperatures are beginning to warm to 80F under the storm, and I expect Cosme will regain minimal tropical storm strength by Saturday. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has remained about constant so far today.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index
Where are these ULL'S coming from cause they were around last year same way & just buzzsawed any tropical system. Also it is sitting in where I had heard from here right where the Bermuda high supposed to be setup???
The "proof" that the man can't lead was "evidenced" by the great number of employees who cited from their long time scientific and professional observations. No one wants to work for a jerk!
Let it rest, man! The guy is G O N E!
Let's get back on the weather. Stop dropping sorted facts and inuendo!
A man that couldn't listen to the people entrusted to serving the public's interest. A showboat. The type that lets authority go to their heads.
Sounds like he's better suited for Congress or the White House.
Wouldn't be the first time it happened, either. About 120 years ago, the president fired a guy for cronyism. He became the next president.
read the transcripts linked in Dr. Master' report
on the hearing? There appears to be more to the
story than meets the Press. How about a follow up
synopsis on the subject from Dr. Masters.
The southern part of the wave is in the caribbean and, that too, won't develop becasue of that other ULL and lack of convection. Simple as that.
The best threat of development in the up-coming week is from a stalled trough off of the Carolinas in a few days. Even that, though, may not develop tropically and become Chantal, because of high wind shear and cooler waters. But, still, probably the best thing to watch, as of now...
Other than that, I would watch the African Coast when some SAL and shear/dry-air weakens as forecasted...maybe we can have our first CATL storm around the first week of August...
Let's just wait and see, like always..
here is what I find funny about all this
I looked back at the debate we are having and I seem to be the only one who is stating proof and facts on my side of the argument
all of you who have debated against me have just stated he was being a dictator and what he did but showed absolutely no proof behind it
go look back everyone and see who has put out the most evidence to their argument
anyway im out
jp, you are exactly correct. I have seen nothing from Bill's detrators except statements that he was a mean boss, blah, blah, blah. No specifics at all. Masters mentioned over 2000 emails from staff that Proenza never answered, yet I see nothing in any testimony posted about that. Is that true? I do not know but I still see the indians at the NHC going out of thier way to paint everything in thier favor. Seems like they need to get to forecasting and quit giving interviews.
Oh, and one thing that still sticks in my craw is the quote from Avilla " I was stopped in the grocery store by a woman who asked me if it was true we were not able to predict storms like we use to" Give me a break! There are several at the NHC that have an overly high sense of themselves.
i have a feeling if the half of the wave that is heading west that broke off the wave in the east carribean gets into the gulf it will explode and become major.
That is very unlikely, because that wave, also, is battling a ULL. Not to mention has no low at the sfc and the wave has little to no convection. And, to make it harder, the GOM may be increasing with shear in the following week or two...I would be watching the other wave above Puerto Rico. When the ULL moves, it could move into the Bahamas and develop. Though it probably won't happen, just gotta keep an eye on it.
Viewing: 301 - 319
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index