Probe recommends Proenza's permanent removal; Atlantic and Hawaiian tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on July 20, 2007

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At a Congressional hearing yesterday, results of the independent probe sent by NOAA to investigate management problems at the National Hurricane Center were presented by Dr. Jim Turner. Dr. Turner is deputy director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and was leader of the independent team of five people sent to NHC on July 2. Their report (Attachment 9) recommended the permanent removal of Bill Proenza as director of NHC (also called the Tropical Prediction Center, or TPC):

"The current TPC director should be reassigned and not be allowed to return to his position at the center. This should be done due to his failure to demonstrate leadership within the TPC rather than his public statements about the QuikSCAT satellite or NOAA leadership."

In his testimony, the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Conrad Lautenbacher, presented some very damaging evidence against Mr. Proenza. Lautenbacher's written testimony includes a letter (Attachment 2) providing a detailed description of a conference call requested by 11 NHC employees (including 7 of 9 of the hurricane forecasters), with the acting head of the National Weather Service, Mary Glackin. If you want to better understand the NHC controversy, read Attachment 2 describing what was said during the June 19 meeting.

I'll make one more post this afternoon analyzing the science of what was presented at the Congressional hearing. Then, it's time to let this issue fade until the next Congressional hearing on the issue, tentatively planned for December or January. The tropics are starting to heat up, and it's time to focus on the coming hurricane season.

Tropical wave near Puerto Rico
A tropical wave near Puerto Rico is spreading clouds and thunderstorms over a wide area of the Eastern Caribbean, northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and surrounding waters. This wave is under about 20-30 knots of wind shear, thanks to the presence of an upper-level low pressure system to its northwest (Figure 1). This upper low is expected to stay in place an continue to bring hostile wind shear to the area the next few days. I don't expect the shear will allow anything to develop from this tropical wave.


Figure 1. Water vapor image from this morning showing the tropical wave near Puerto Rico, and the upper level low with dry air (dark colors) to its northwest. This upper level low sucking in moist air from the tropical wave, and is bringing hostile wind shear of 20-30 knots over it.

We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. Most of the models are predicting the formation of a low pressure system along the tail end of this front by Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm--or possibly a subtropical storm--due to the presence of high wind shear. NHC has put a Hurricane Hunter aircraft on standby to investigate the region on Sunday afternoon, if necessary. Even if the low is extratropical, it may be able to suck up plenty of tropical moisture and douse the mid-Atlantic coast and/or New England with heavy rains as early as Monday.

Cosme to skirt Hawaii
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands can relax a bit now, as it appears that Tropical Depression Cosme, will pass well south of the Big Island on Saturday. The edges of the outermost spiral bands will probably bring rains of 1-3 inches to the east side of the Big Island. Wind shear has fallen to 5-10 knots, and ocean temperatures are beginning to warm to 80F under the storm, and I expect Cosme will regain minimal tropical storm strength by Saturday. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has remained about constant so far today.

Jeff Masters

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118. benirica
4:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
lol she made it clear that it was really the only thing to look at for the moment (Puerto Rico speaking), she made a quick mention of maybe something comming by the Carolina coast.
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117. Bonedog
4:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
not a problem

what 97L?? Nothing out there to be an invest yet. I actually think they will fly into something first this time around before giving any (including invest) status.

Dont forget also Dr.M said they will have a flight on standby to also investigate the Cut Off Low this weekend. They might to a two-fer hit the one off the coast and fly onto the wave. Basically will be within range by Sunday.
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116. EdMahmoud
4:28 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
The UL is shearing the wave near Puerto Rico pretty badly now, but it wouldn't have to move much to the West relative to the wave to still be producing diffluent flow over the wave, while also inducing a short wave anti-cyclone.
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115. Tazmanian
4:40 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
is that circulation to the sfc?
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114. Drakoen
4:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

whats interesting??? where???


The wave of Africa lol.
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113. gthsii
4:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
thanks for the link to the model page...forgot it was FSU
112. Tazmanian
4:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
whats interesting??? where???
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111. Drakoen
4:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 4:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Why do they have to schedule it on Sunday? Thats when I go on vacation. Figures.


Thats when they expect conditions to be more favorable for development...
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110. Tazmanian
4:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
why has the nhc not put 97L up on the navy site?
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109. Bonedog
4:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
bouy 13001 has sea temp at 80.4 winds NW at 8mph

link tot he FSU forcast model page

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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108. Drakoen
4:36 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Local met says it has good circulation... interesting..
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107. Tazmanian
4:36 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
may be
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106. WPBHurricane05
12:36 PM EDT on July 20, 2007
Why do they have to schedule it on Sunday? Thats when I go on vacation. Figures.
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105. Drakoen
4:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Taz they are probably gonna cancel that flight... untill this system looks better
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104. benirica
4:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
ok... my daily "whats the the Puerto Rican Met. saying"
the ULL won the battle against the Tropical Wave and it isnt defined anymore. the system did try to form circulations and they were clearly visible on the long range radar loops from PR, but the odds were against it and now its gone.
It could be back, but it is highly unlikely for now.
Africa wave- good circulation and it has convection around it, but it has to be over the water another day or so to be taken seriously. but either way, it is relatively the one to watch now
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101. Tazmanian
4:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 20 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 33N AND 66W FOR 22/1800Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

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100. Drakoen
4:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
This map only shows 26 degree Celsius and above SST.


Link
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99. gthsii
4:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
shoot...i lost my link to the LSU (i think that was it) model page (the page with the grey background and links to most major models)...anyone have it?
98. guygee
4:25 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 2:57 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
QuikSCAT: Reprimand Bush, Not Hurricane Center Director
[...]


Thank you for that article Patrap. It is good to hear the other side of the story.
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97. benirica
4:28 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
has it been reported anywhere how fast its moving?
if it is the system the GFS somewhat develops, well even on that model it seems that it will contine to go sloooooooowly to the W or WNW
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96. Drakoen
4:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Yea your right JP. Still the wave has a long way to go...
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93. Drakoen
4:19 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
LOL. i think its the influence of 2 waves, when i look at the loop. most waves don't sit around Africa that long.
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92. Patrap
11:19 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
Bush to have colonoscopy tomorrow,Breaking News..
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91. benirica
4:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
that sucker really is barely moving... it looks like in a day and a half it still hasnt come off of Africa yet...
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90. eye
4:12 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
if that wave coming off africa goes too slow, it will die in the cooler than normal waters off Africa. It really does look like it is barily moving.
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89. Drakoen
4:13 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
much better Taz.
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88. Tazmanian
4:12 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
try this

lol
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87. eye
4:09 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
well, looks like if that blob develops it will head N and into Fishland.

Guess which model correctly predicted the wave would split into?
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86. Drakoen
4:09 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Taz when you are posting images the width should be 640... otheriwse it streches out the blog.
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85. Tazmanian
4:08 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
.
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84. Drakoen
4:08 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
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83. ryang
12:05 PM AST on July 20, 2007
The GFS develop's it around 40W... Moving W-WNW...
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82. Drakoen
4:03 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
The GFS has a 1009mb low with it currently. It is somewhat believable considering the pressure around the Africa coast is 1010mb(falling) also there is a SSW/WSW wind. (my thoughts...)
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81. ryang
12:03 PM AST on July 20, 2007
Hey Drak...
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80. ryang
12:02 PM AST on July 20, 2007
New Africa wave... SAL might hinder development though...
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79. gthsii
4:02 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
drak: i think when the discussion got political...people ran for the hills
78. Drakoen
4:02 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
hello ryang...
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77. ryang
12:00 PM AST on July 20, 2007
Afternoon Everyone...
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76. Drakoen
3:56 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: benirica at 3:56 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

the wave off of Africa, is that yesterdays or did a new one come off now?


I think thats yesterdays... hasn't really moved much.
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75. benirica
3:53 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
the wave off of Africa, is that yesterdays or did a new one come off now?
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73. Drakoen
3:54 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
guess the blog is dead today..
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70. Drakoen
3:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
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69. Bonedog
3:40 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
It shows on the 850mb Vort models to head due north with a slight retrograde into the Gulf Of MAINE. I dont think it will be tropical probably extratropical. It did not show on sea level pressure maps except for a circular line around 1000mb. Looks like a rain and gust wind event if anything
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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