New NHC revelations; Atlantic tropical update; Hawaii watches Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, but we will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance. The UKMET model is forecasting the development of a low pressure system here on Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm, though, due to the presence of high wind shear.

Large amounts of dry air and African dust cover the eastern Atlantic, and this dusty air is moving westward towards the Caribbean. Tropical storm development is unlikely in this region for the coming five days. Thereafter, as a major shift in the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern puts a ridge of high pressure in place over the Eastern U.S., the Saharan dust outbreaks may decrease. Additionally, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is expected to decrease substantially by next week, and chances of tropical storm formation are much higher next week than they were this week.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Depression Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is struggling with 10-20 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures of about 25 degrees C. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some this morning, and it is possible that the unfavorable shear and SSTs will kill the depression before it encounters warmer waters and lower shear on Friday. If Cosme does survive the next 24 hours, it could re-intensify to a weak tropical storm and brush the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

More on the National Hurricane Center controversy
In an article published in the Houston Chronicle yesterday, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said that employees of the center were not coerced by NOAA management into signing the July 5 letter of no confidence against director Bill Proenza. This view was echoed by NHC's top administrator in an Orlando Sentinel article. Franklin outlined a variety of reasons why the staff lost confidence in Proenza--Proenza lacked experience in hurricane forecasting and showed little interest in learning the science, ignored his employees to the tune of 2000 unread email from them, and lied to the press about his employees' reaction to his reprimand from NWS chief Mary Glackin.

Also in the Houston Chronicle story is the revelation that Proenza never applied for the position of director of NHC. He was demoted into it, according to Daniel Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. This raises the question, who put Proenza into the job? Why did they do it? Hopefully, this will get answered at today's congressional hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; emergency management officials who worked with Proenza; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. With the exception of Lautenbacher, all these witnesses are likely to be allies of Proenza. Also testifying will be Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel today. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify is anyone from the National Hurricane Center. Also absent is a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments, that I have seen, the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In fact, in comments published in the Orlando Sentinel, Dr. Atlas claimed that Proenza's statement that loss of the loss of QuikSCAT could reduce the accuracy of hurricane-track forecasts by as much as 16 percent represents "the consensus of the scientific community." Well, that is not the case, as myself and senior hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center will attest to. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid--at today's hearing.

The hearing charter for today's hearing raises these questions:

Why was Proenza chosen to be Director of the highest profiled Center at NOAA?

Beyond the items listed in the Glackin memorandum--which NOAA stresses was not a reprimand document and was not placed in Mr. Proenza's personnel file--are there any other actions that better justify the action to place Proenza on leave?

Why was there such a depth of dissatisfaction over Proenza's focus on a particular satellite?

What is needed to properly equip the Tropical Prediction Center, and are those resources available at this time?

Was the Tropical Prediction Center incapable of carrying out its core task of identifying, tracking and predicting hurricanes before the evaluation team was dispatched by Admiral Lautenbacher?

Jeff Masters

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1160. CapeCoralx3
2:22 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Personally, I think insurance companies should reward those of us that actually take the time to prepare their homes for a storm. You would not believe the amount of people who just have the "oh well I have insurance" attitude. I lock my home down like a fortress when a storm is on the way.
Member Since: October 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
1159. mgreen91
2:13 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: CJ5 at 9:04 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.

The bottom line is that everyone who lives in an area that is prone to Hurricanes must accept the responsibility. While I think my tax dollars should offer some limited assistance, it is not my responsibility to make sure people are made whole everytime they get into trouble. It doesn't matter if it is coastal or MS flood plain, people continue to rebuild in the same spots and then complain when another disaster strikes. Personal responsibility.
I agree!!
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
1158. WPBHurricane05
2:13 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1156. 900MB
2:08 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Area South of Cuba could use some watching, fairly persistant, fairly stationary, has spin and some convection. Over Very warm waters and there is a shear path of least resistance (5-10kts)straight up the Gulf of Mexico towards La.. Convection would have to pick up on the South and East sides of the disturbance. If it developed, steering paths are towards the Yucatan and Western Gulf. I would suggest that it would be slightly East of that path and could have a clear shot through the Channel since storms tend to move where there is less resistance. Of course, that's only if it perks up and turns into something.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1155. mgreen91
2:08 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: mgreen91 at 9:08 AM EDT on July 20, 2007.


I知 a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up.

So instead of THEM dropping YOU, you are forced to cancel your policy.

So people still end up without insurance. I think in the long term a savings plan for hurricane preparation is more effective. Even saving only a few dollars a month out of what you have is better than nothing. If state governments want to "get in on it", they can match or subsidise the savings of the lowest income homeowners. From my perspective, that kind of long-term planning makes more sense. Like social security, only for your house :o).

Be as it may, people who live in hurricane prone area more then likely to file a homeowner痴 claim every year. I live in Chicago; I never had to file a claim with my insurance carrier. If a person lives in Miami FL pay $1200 a month for a 2000 sq foot home that痴 valued at $300,000.00 and a hurricane happens how an insurance company makes money?
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
1154. weathers4me
2:07 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Same here re the insurance. If you rates have gone up significantly, you need to call your present broker and ask how you can cancel your existing policy because of the increase. They will then shop for a new quote for you. Let them earn your business.
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
1153. BahaHurican
2:06 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Two things about insurance coverage that struck me from this discussion, and then I'm out:

1. Misinformation can be a killer. If u don't understand the "rules" of insurance coverage or know how to get the best coverage for your insurance dollars, you can be a BIG loser, short and long-term.

2. If insurance companies are not properly regulated by governmental agencies i.e. by law, it seems really easy for them to go from "protectors" to extortionists. YMMV

Have a good day, all. I'm not expecting any rain from the Twave / ULL today; looks like that dance will play out north of Puerto Rico. I'll check in when I get back to see if anything of interest has taken place . . .

Have a great day, ya'll!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
1151. FloridaRick
2:06 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
"Miss Bennet, we have a government run insurance in Florida (Citizens Insurance) and believe me, you don't want any part of it."

I would like to add that as a Florida Resident with a different Insurance Provider I still pay a surcharge for Citizens Insurance. Why should I have to pay to off-set some one else's cost, mainly the government. This would be the same for any government run business. And if you think they are not out to make money you are mistaken. I work for a State agency that provides services and plans for surplus money coming from those services.
Member Since: July 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1150. CJ5
2:04 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
The bottom line is that everyone who lives in an area that is prone to Hurricanes must accept the responsibility. While I think my tax dollars should offer some limited assistance, it is not my responsibility to make sure people are made whole everytime they get into trouble. It doesn't matter if it is coastal or MS flood plain, people continue to rebuild in the same spots and then complain when another disaster strikes. Personal responsibility.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1149. emagirl
2:04 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
i agree nash
1147. IKE
2:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: mgreen91 at 8:59 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: mgreen91 at 8:08 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 7:41 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.

"Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect."......

Exactly...I was told about 10-11 years ago when I bought my house that exact same thing. Don't have a claim...a major claim...if you do, they'll drop you.

I知 a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up


I was told that by the secretary of the insurance agency I have it with.

A secretary is not an insurance professional.


I never said she was...then again, I never said she wasn't. You're assuming she isn't licensed....I don't know. She could be....but, that's what she told me.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1146. mgreen91
1:59 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: mgreen91 at 8:08 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 7:41 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.

"Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect."......

Exactly...I was told about 10-11 years ago when I bought my house that exact same thing. Don't have a claim...a major claim...if you do, they'll drop you.

I知 a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up


I was told that by the secretary of the insurance agency I have it with.

A secretary is not an insurance professional.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
1145. BahaHurican
1:58 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: mgreen91 at 9:08 AM EDT on July 20, 2007.


I知 a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up.

So instead of THEM dropping YOU, you are forced to cancel your policy.

So people still end up without insurance. I think in the long term a savings plan for hurricane preparation is more effective. Even saving only a few dollars a month out of what you have is better than nothing. If state governments want to "get in on it", they can match or subsidise the savings of the lowest income homeowners. From my perspective, that kind of long-term planning makes more sense. Like social security, only for your house :o).
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
1144. IKE
1:57 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 8:21 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.


We know that...there's very little going on in the tropical Atlantic or anywhere for that matter.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1143. moonlightcowboy
1:56 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
In Mississippi, insurance doesn't have to have a reason to drop you. If they don't like you, or the color socks you're wearing...doesn't matter. There is no recourse.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1141. IKE
1:55 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: MissBennet at 8:19 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 12:41 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

"Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect."......

Exactly...I was told about 10-11 years ago when I bought my house that exact same thing. Don't have a claim...a major claim...if you do, they'll drop you.

Then what's the point of having insurance?! I hate insurance companies just for this reason. It doesn't only happen with home insurance but health as well.

Example: I've been going through a bunch of tests for a stomach probelm I have. Two weeks ago I get a letter from my insurance company (whom I've had for over a year) telling me that they are investigating me for having a prior condition, (Which I didn't) and they're refusing to pay claims until the investigation is over! Its a racket!


That's the way it normally is in major medical insurance. I know....I write it!

Actually I tried to avoid major meds and write the senior(age 65+) market.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1140. IKE
1:53 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: mgreen91 at 8:08 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 7:41 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.

"Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect."......

Exactly...I was told about 10-11 years ago when I bought my house that exact same thing. Don't have a claim...a major claim...if you do, they'll drop you.

I知 a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up


I was told that by the secretary of the insurance agency I have it with.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1139. BahaHurican
1:53 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: aggie17 at 9:07 AM EDT on July 20, 2007. (hide)
LOL Some of you people need to get a life.


Actually, we DO have a life . . . and it's called . . .

WUNDERBLOGGING!!!!!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
1138. IKE
1:52 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: Michael at 8:06 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
I mean the high pressure is set up where all tropical development will be forced towards the west.


Then why did this wave turn abruptly to the north? ULL's? That may happen again and again...we'll see.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1137. StormReadyinSFL
1:50 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
http://www.flgov.com/shop4insurance/HOCompareRates.htm This is the web site for insurance that's missing now....maybe will be back up soon
1136. Drakoen
1:49 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
No. I don't think that wave will develop. There is 40-50kts of wind shear over the wave. None of the reliable computer models develop the wave.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1134. moonlightcowboy
1:47 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Good morning, all.

Drakoen, that ULL over Kman, below Cuba is still spinnin' 'round...sort of stationary. Didn't move much in the night, unlike the other one.

Those waters are really hot there. If it stays there, (the wave catches up with it), any chance of this thing working its way to the surface? TIA
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1133. Drakoen
1:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: stoormfury at 1:41 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

i was just seeking advice


oh ok. I don't know anything about PSU met courses. My blog is a compiled list of information...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1132. stoormfury
1:41 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
i was just seeking advice
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
1131. CJ5
1:41 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Well that disturbance that was much talked about yesterday disappeared like Houdini! Now on to the next blob lol
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1130. Drakoen
1:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: stoormfury at 1:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

it is a course from penn state university.initially a forecasting course


Why would i know about that? that doesn't have anything to do with my blog...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1128. stoormfury
1:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
it is a course from penn state university.initially a forecasting course
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
1127. Drakoen
1:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: MissBennet at 1:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Ok Drak, Sorry, done venting...

As for my opintion (on weather) I think that African Wave will die when it hits the water fully... too much dryness and the water's still a bit too chilly there. Just look what happened to the one right before it. Poof! in Chicklet's terms. =)


Yea. water could be warmer.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1126. Drakoen
1:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: stoormfury at 1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Drakoen
how good is the on line METEO 101 course from psu


lol. psu?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1124. stoormfury
1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Drakoen
how good is the on line METEO 101 course from psu
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
1123. MissBennet
1:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Ok Drak, Sorry, done venting...

As for my opintion (on weather) I think that African Wave will die when it hits the water fully... too much dryness and the water's still a bit too chilly there. Just look what happened to the one right before it. Poof! in Chicklet's terms. =)
1121. SAINTHURRIFAN
1:26 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
draken you are right sorry have a nice day and ps send that to masters himself for his post are a little to polictical good day
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
1119. Drakoen
1:26 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
stoormfury that would be low. the upper level low would have to sit there and work its way down to the surface.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1118. stoormfury
1:24 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
what are the possibilities of the ULL on the western tip of cuba moving into the GOMEX and initiate something. the area is already moist with low wind shear
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
1117. Thundercloud01221991
1:23 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
What was it like tracking this system in 2004

Link
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1116. Drakoen
1:21 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1115. Drakoen
1:20 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

actually it is in a way related, all the money Bush is pouring into the war could be used to fund much needed programs here in the US

and included in that is our weather stations

but enough about politics really, anyway back to work, Drakoen keep me updated on the area off of Africa, I think this could be our first significant system this year


Ok.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1114. Murko
1:20 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: Chicklit at 1:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
Poof!


Who you calling a poof? lol ;-)
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1111. WPBHurricane05
1:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2007
All this political talking has given me a headache......
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.