New NHC revelations; Atlantic tropical update; Hawaii watches Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, but we will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance. The UKMET model is forecasting the development of a low pressure system here on Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm, though, due to the presence of high wind shear.

Large amounts of dry air and African dust cover the eastern Atlantic, and this dusty air is moving westward towards the Caribbean. Tropical storm development is unlikely in this region for the coming five days. Thereafter, as a major shift in the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern puts a ridge of high pressure in place over the Eastern U.S., the Saharan dust outbreaks may decrease. Additionally, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is expected to decrease substantially by next week, and chances of tropical storm formation are much higher next week than they were this week.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Depression Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is struggling with 10-20 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures of about 25 degrees C. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some this morning, and it is possible that the unfavorable shear and SSTs will kill the depression before it encounters warmer waters and lower shear on Friday. If Cosme does survive the next 24 hours, it could re-intensify to a weak tropical storm and brush the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

More on the National Hurricane Center controversy
In an article published in the Houston Chronicle yesterday, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said that employees of the center were not coerced by NOAA management into signing the July 5 letter of no confidence against director Bill Proenza. This view was echoed by NHC's top administrator in an Orlando Sentinel article. Franklin outlined a variety of reasons why the staff lost confidence in Proenza--Proenza lacked experience in hurricane forecasting and showed little interest in learning the science, ignored his employees to the tune of 2000 unread email from them, and lied to the press about his employees' reaction to his reprimand from NWS chief Mary Glackin.

Also in the Houston Chronicle story is the revelation that Proenza never applied for the position of director of NHC. He was demoted into it, according to Daniel Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. This raises the question, who put Proenza into the job? Why did they do it? Hopefully, this will get answered at today's congressional hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; emergency management officials who worked with Proenza; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. With the exception of Lautenbacher, all these witnesses are likely to be allies of Proenza. Also testifying will be Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel today. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify is anyone from the National Hurricane Center. Also absent is a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments, that I have seen, the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In fact, in comments published in the Orlando Sentinel, Dr. Atlas claimed that Proenza's statement that loss of the loss of QuikSCAT could reduce the accuracy of hurricane-track forecasts by as much as 16 percent represents "the consensus of the scientific community." Well, that is not the case, as myself and senior hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center will attest to. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid--at today's hearing.

The hearing charter for today's hearing raises these questions:

Why was Proenza chosen to be Director of the highest profiled Center at NOAA?

Beyond the items listed in the Glackin memorandum--which NOAA stresses was not a reprimand document and was not placed in Mr. Proenza's personnel file--are there any other actions that better justify the action to place Proenza on leave?

Why was there such a depth of dissatisfaction over Proenza's focus on a particular satellite?

What is needed to properly equip the Tropical Prediction Center, and are those resources available at this time?

Was the Tropical Prediction Center incapable of carrying out its core task of identifying, tracking and predicting hurricanes before the evaluation team was dispatched by Admiral Lautenbacher?

Jeff Masters

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861. sporteguy03
2:26 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Storm is right JP that ULL to the North is getting too close to it for it to survive.
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860. StormJunkie
2:24 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Evening pat, was out to dinner, going to have to listen to the podcast when it comes out.

That SST map looks fishy pat, 24c in some places? Love the negative imagery frame from LSU ☺
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858. louisianaweatherguy
2:23 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Yep, the caribbean feature SE of Puerto Rico looks very good for now... I believe we need to see this thing continue what it's got for at least the next 36 hours for anything else to be said...
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856. StormJunkie
2:23 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
jp, right were the new convection appears to be firing?
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855. Patrap
9:22 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
Atlantic Basin Loop...Link
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854. sporteguy03
2:21 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
JP,
Eye on the Tropics update:
Circulation West of Antigua, but right now shear is too high according to Tom for development.
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853. stormpetrol
2:19 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
ULL north of PR is eating up the blob, unless it can move back more SW its a goner! This might just be a signal of what is to come in Aug & Sept. I still think it will be year somewaht like 2004.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
852. Patrap
9:19 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
GOES nightime GOM composite SSts

Link
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849. Patrap
9:18 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
Spookie Frame Low Cloud product Link
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846. sporteguy03
2:15 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Still no llc so till that happens nothing.
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845. Patrap
9:15 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
GOES-12 Ch-4 IR Link
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844. Snowfire
9:13 PM EST on July 19, 2007
That blob everyone is calling "97L" doesn't even have any cyclonicity associated with it yet, according to CIRA's maps. Though it does appear to have a capping anticyclone...
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843. Thundercloud01221991
2:13 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
sea surface temps--Link

dry air--Link
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
842. stoormfury
2:08 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
buenas noche. esta manana
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841. Hellsniper223
2:00 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Good evening everyone,

It seems like the E carrib wave has a good chance at becoming 97L, then later TD3.

It has Low shear, Weakening SAL, and Moisture all around (With exception to that dry portion in the carrib).

Also, the current steering patterns look to have it heading(if it forms) into the Gulf.

Bad news... Or If you're crazy like me... Good news.

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840. BahaHurican
10:04 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
Tcloud,

NHC did say they were expecting a possible regeneration by tomorrow morning. It'll be interesting to see if it does come back, and if it will actually affect Hawaii.
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839. eaglesrock
10:06 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
New TWO is out:

Link
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838. Thundercloud01221991
2:00 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Take a look at cosme it looks like it will be a ts next advisory with TS watches for Hawaii likely by fri morn or even TS warnings

Link
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
837. tornadofan
1:54 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Wow - it's been good seeing all the respected bloggers on tonight. I will sit back and observe the masters at work. May the trolls stay away. Thanks everyone.
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836. JUSTCOASTING
1:53 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
I have yet to see one failed when installed correctly we install quite a few here in Punta Gorda expensive but you never know what can happen with debris although i think they are a window that will hold up for many years and parts are easy to get to work on them i think a great choice for a window
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835. stoormfury
1:48 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
can the CATL wave which is larger and stronger than the CARIB wave ,take over and dominate?. The distance is about 1300 miles
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834. Miamiweather
1:49 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
well i had them during wilma and the eye crossed directly over my house and they did very well no noise what so ever in the house and the screen patio flew off and they stayed strong
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833. JUSTCOASTING
1:48 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
hey Miami how are those pgt windows doing for you so far
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832. JUSTCOASTING
1:47 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
BOB's got a good show going tonight
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831. Miamiweather
1:46 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
justcoasting that was me that called in
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830. Miamiweather
1:33 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
hurricane23 you got mail
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829. JUSTCOASTING
1:43 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
bob is talking to pat about the fema go PAT
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828. Ivansvrivr
1:30 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Good Evening, everybody. Does anybody think
that the outflow,and resulting sinking air
that will occur around our N.E carribean
friend could make the nominal upper level
enviroment slightly more favorable? Maybe
just enough of a difference between nothing
happening and slow development. I'm not sold
on this one doing anything, but from the last
time I saw it(this morning) until now, It seems
as though it has a much more defined structure.
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826. JUSTCOASTING
1:39 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
bob is talking about 5 " marine grade plywood for your windows does he know the cost of marine grade plywood and 5 " thick wow i would be cheaper to let your house blow away stick to the weather and leave the building to the pros
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825. Chicklit
1:41 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
STRONG EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W/67W IS BECOMING
ACTIVE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...ST MAARTEN AND
ANGUILLA. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN 2-3 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING AND BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME. IN ADDITION SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 61W-66W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg
Okay, I'm going out on a limb and saying by tomorrow night we'll have 97L. Even if the top gets knocked off of it there's still activity to the south that could persist.
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824. CaicosRetiredSailor
9:23 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
To anyone denigrating the large number of postings with opinions about these "blobs". I would say that I have only been here for one week, but have learned a LOT during the presentation of the differing views. Yes, it takes a bit of time and discernment to winnow out the uninformed posters, but it is worth it.

What interests me most is learning about tropical cyclogenesis, more than comparing forecasts once a storm is named.

SO, Thank You, to all you who have put thought and research into your posts.... and you know who you are. I appreciate learning from you.

CRS

[edit] of course, by the time I finished typing this, several had logged off....
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822. RL3AO
8:35 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
Cosme is trying to become a TS again. New blow up.
820. MelbourneTom
1:33 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
I am still suprised there have been no comments about the CMC prediction. Last night is showed clearly that this would split into two storms. At present, even though this is further east than predicited, it is accurate and I don't think any other model showed this.

Link

Link
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819. Miamiweather
1:33 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
hurricane you got mail
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818. stoormfury
1:29 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: charley04survivor at 1:27 AM GMT on July 20, 2007.

This blob does not impress me at this moment. If its is in existence tomorrow at this time and looks a bit healthier, then I will pay attention.

quite agree. cloud tops are warming and are being blown away to the north east
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817. Patrap
8:27 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
Okay..my bad. I talked to Bob in chat today about his shoulder surgery.Thanks
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816. nash28
1:24 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
One last post for the evening...


Shooters sound splendid!

Hooters, Bahama Breeze, Wing House, Channelside....

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815. charley04survivor
1:26 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
This blob does not impress me at this moment. If its is in existence tomorrow at this time and looks a bit healthier, then I will pay attention.
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811. Patrap
8:20 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
Thats a rerun from the other week
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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