New NHC revelations; Atlantic tropical update; Hawaii watches Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, but we will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance. The UKMET model is forecasting the development of a low pressure system here on Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm, though, due to the presence of high wind shear.

Large amounts of dry air and African dust cover the eastern Atlantic, and this dusty air is moving westward towards the Caribbean. Tropical storm development is unlikely in this region for the coming five days. Thereafter, as a major shift in the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern puts a ridge of high pressure in place over the Eastern U.S., the Saharan dust outbreaks may decrease. Additionally, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is expected to decrease substantially by next week, and chances of tropical storm formation are much higher next week than they were this week.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Depression Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is struggling with 10-20 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures of about 25 degrees C. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some this morning, and it is possible that the unfavorable shear and SSTs will kill the depression before it encounters warmer waters and lower shear on Friday. If Cosme does survive the next 24 hours, it could re-intensify to a weak tropical storm and brush the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

More on the National Hurricane Center controversy
In an article published in the Houston Chronicle yesterday, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said that employees of the center were not coerced by NOAA management into signing the July 5 letter of no confidence against director Bill Proenza. This view was echoed by NHC's top administrator in an Orlando Sentinel article. Franklin outlined a variety of reasons why the staff lost confidence in Proenza--Proenza lacked experience in hurricane forecasting and showed little interest in learning the science, ignored his employees to the tune of 2000 unread email from them, and lied to the press about his employees' reaction to his reprimand from NWS chief Mary Glackin.

Also in the Houston Chronicle story is the revelation that Proenza never applied for the position of director of NHC. He was demoted into it, according to Daniel Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. This raises the question, who put Proenza into the job? Why did they do it? Hopefully, this will get answered at today's congressional hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; emergency management officials who worked with Proenza; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. With the exception of Lautenbacher, all these witnesses are likely to be allies of Proenza. Also testifying will be Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel today. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify is anyone from the National Hurricane Center. Also absent is a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments, that I have seen, the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In fact, in comments published in the Orlando Sentinel, Dr. Atlas claimed that Proenza's statement that loss of the loss of QuikSCAT could reduce the accuracy of hurricane-track forecasts by as much as 16 percent represents "the consensus of the scientific community." Well, that is not the case, as myself and senior hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center will attest to. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid--at today's hearing.

The hearing charter for today's hearing raises these questions:

Why was Proenza chosen to be Director of the highest profiled Center at NOAA?

Beyond the items listed in the Glackin memorandum--which NOAA stresses was not a reprimand document and was not placed in Mr. Proenza's personnel file--are there any other actions that better justify the action to place Proenza on leave?

Why was there such a depth of dissatisfaction over Proenza's focus on a particular satellite?

What is needed to properly equip the Tropical Prediction Center, and are those resources available at this time?

Was the Tropical Prediction Center incapable of carrying out its core task of identifying, tracking and predicting hurricanes before the evaluation team was dispatched by Admiral Lautenbacher?

Jeff Masters

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1011. WPBHurricane05
7:38 AM EDT on July 20, 2007
The war is a joke.
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1010. weathermanwannabe
6:37 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
Baha...We were "thinking/typing" the same thing at the same time!
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1009. weathermanwannabe
6:31 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
Hopefully, as they have boasted although who really knows, they (FEMA) have diverted some funds (which are tight because of the Iraq situation) into warehousing supplies around Hurricane prone areas in the US for the "rapid response" they are supposed to engage in the event of such a natural disaster.....We shall see (as we all know, the real Government heros of Katrina were the Coast Guard...They get my vote any day and God Bless Them)....
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1008. BahaHurican
7:31 AM EDT on July 20, 2007
wannabe,

I have a feeling you already have some reservations about the future location of your tax dollars [smile].

I think the current government is still too focused on the war in Iraq, with an "eggs in one basket" mentality. I agree homeland security should involve protection from terrorist threats, but it should also consider other potential threats to the homeland, such as natural disaster and epidemic disease.
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1007. IKE
6:31 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
"THE N PORTION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.".....

Say what? No chance.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1006. IKE
6:27 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 6:23 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Hey Ike (in Bonifay for the last two days); I'm certainly not as good, or as hardcore, as many of our regulars (Drak/Nash/Taz, etc.), but, given the pending BH set-up, and the very warm waters in the GOM, I have a "gut" feeling that we, unfortunately, are going to see a major cane hit somewhere in the Gulf this season.....I pray that this does not happen but it will really test the prepration/response of the Government and the powers that be....If they blow it again (like Katrina) then I will have some serious reservations about where my tax dollars are going....


Wasting millions of dollars transporting ice around the country for 2 years. Having to melt the ice because it could be contaminated. $13 million tax dollars to melt the ice.

I love the USA...but my faith in the government is at an all-time low.

I agree...it could be a dangerous set-up this hurricane season along the GOM.

Bonifay....nice area......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1005. WPBHurricane05
7:27 AM EDT on July 20, 2007
New wave emerging off the coast of Africa today.
It should dissipate when it hits the cooler waters, but we are coming up to Cape Verde Season.
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1004. sporteguy03
11:23 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Eye out to sea
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1003. BahaHurican
7:17 AM EDT on July 20, 2007
From the 8:05 am discussion:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED FROM 21N40W 15N44W 7N46W MOVING W 15-20
KT. BROAD WAVE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA
FROM 38N-50N. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT WITH THE N
PORTION MOVING SLOWER NW THAN THE S PORTION MOVING W. WAVE IS
ALONG 67W/68W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEE BELOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 66W-71W.

and .. .

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS THIS MORNING THAT WAS THE N PORTION OF
THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 25N63W. THIS BROAD AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN
69W-65W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE RAINS HAVE
NOT BEGUN IN ERNEST OVER PUERTO RICO AS OF YET BUT WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE ISLAND LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE E COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS
NE FLORIDA AND EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 76W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM ALONG
THE E US COAST N OF 30N. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 76W BUT IS ONLY
PRODUCING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 26N67W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 63W-73W WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N64W TO 26N66W. THE UPPER LOW IS BEING
OVERRUN BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE S AND IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE N AWAY FROM THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE TO 24N63W. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N59W
ENHANCING THE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N50W COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N FROM
40W-56W WITH A VERY NARROW UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 46W-66W. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE E ATLC E OF 37W. THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION TO
OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
WALLACE

I would pay attention to the comment on the decreasing density of the dust . . .

Also, does anyone think the Twave between 40/50 W has a chance for development once it gets closer to the Caribbean?
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1002. weathermanwannabe
6:18 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
Hey Ike (in Bonifay for the last two days); I'm certainly not as good, or as hardcore, as many of our regulars (Drak/Nash/Taz, etc.), but, given the pending BH set-up, and the very warm waters in the GOM, I have a "gut" feeling that we, unfortunately, are going to see a major cane hit somewhere in the Gulf this season.....I pray that this does not happen but it will really test the prepration/response of the Government and the powers that be....If they blow it again (like Katrina) then I will have some serious reservations about where my tax dollars are going....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1001. IKE
6:13 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
With FEMA....IGNORING contaminated trailers...people sick...dying...the last thing this country needs is another major hurricane.

Our government at work...doing their best for their own people. Pitiful.........
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1000. weathermanwannabe
6:09 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
Good Morning Folks.......That PR wave is a goner so it looks like we will be "in the clear" for the next several days.....
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998. BahaHurican
6:58 AM EDT on July 20, 2007
Here's the 06Z surface analysis:

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997. IKE
6:04 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
30 to 40 knots of shear in it's path....no chance.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
996. IKE
6:01 AM CDT on July 20, 2007
And it'll get drawn out to sea with the trough coming south and east.

Translated....bye-bye wave!

Day 50 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

133 days left and it's over.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
995. PSLHokie
5:56 AM EST on July 20, 2007
Wave at 67W 17N has shifted north. It appears to have some low level rotation (vorticity map) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

However... It is getting absolutely shreded by the ULL to the north.
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994. BahaHurican
6:53 AM EDT on July 20, 2007
In fact, looking at the GHCC viewer, it now appears that the convection belongs to the ULL and not to the Twave.
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993. BahaHurican
6:24 AM EDT on July 20, 2007
Morning all,

I thought CMC was on crack! According to some people yesterday . . .

But whatever potential system we saw yesterday DOES seem to be heading due north, now doesn't it?????

LOL

The westernmost of the two ULLs looks like it's spinning the convection associated with this wave north towards it. Unless something happens to cause a separate LLC to form under the current convection, I figure by tonight the ULL will have shredded it. This ULL is forecast to move west, isn't it? If so, that's the only way that moisture will end up heading west.

As for CMC, I think you have to take its dire predictions of Cat 7 storm formation with a wee bit of salt, and pay attention instead to the TRACK and MOTION which it suggests. It seems that while it may not be good on actual cylogenesis, it does seem to predict the other two factors relatively well.

My 5 cents.

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992. TayTay
10:11 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Looks like it's getting split apart.
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991. stoormfury
10:05 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
nonr
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990. stoormfury
9:52 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
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989. stoormfury
9:42 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
carib wave will coon be no more. it is moving into an area of strong shear created by the two ULLS to its north



Link
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988. WeatherfanPR
8:57 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Wow this system over the antilles really moves north. The CMC model predicted this was going to happen and it's hapenning!!!
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987. Caffinehog
8:04 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Yep, it's head is getting torn off by the ULL to its north. The southern part of the wave, although it has little convection, probably has a better chance.
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986. stormybil
7:27 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
i got to agree with both of you but it also looks like its fighting the ull its tough to call right now .
985. Fshhead
7:15 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Looks more like it's about to be buzzsawed by the ULL. Water vapor loop shows this clearly!!
Link
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984. weatherblog
7:08 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
It actually looks to be organizing somewhat. The thunderstorms are more concentrated and, hmmmm, is that a spin I see 63W;18N..??
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
983. TropicalNonsense
7:09 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
blob
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982. TropicalNonsense
6:58 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
BLOB
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981. TropicalNonsense
6:54 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
The Water Temps are almost 84 Degrees and it's
only the middle of July.

We Will Soon Have Hurricane Bathwater By Mid
to Late August in the Carribean Sea ... Lookout!!
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980. stormybil
6:45 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
looks like it wants to form and now with the pr. dropping we still have to watch it . another good one off africa just might make it throgh to be 97l .
979. TropicalNonsense
6:43 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Still No Obvious Sign of an LLC Forming but The
Pressures are Falling at a Decent pace and are
Relatively Low. Tommorrow during the afternoon
Heat(DIMAX) I think this system will bulk back
up.

Here are the Latest readings from the nearest
Weather Buoy: #42059 (Note the-4 Pressure Drop)

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.4 F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.6 F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined
plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
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978. weatherblog
6:16 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
We arn't seeing 97L afterall...who would've known?! lol

Now to start monitering the African Coast for some development...maybe we'll get 97L there.

Anyways, see y'all in the morning...or, umm....today lol.
Maybe the caribbean blob will be doing better and the ULL will have weakened or moved away...not likely, but still possible.

G'night~

<>a href="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/456x343/2xg3_ir_anim.gif?2007720231" target="_blank">
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
975. franck
6:12 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
yep..it's squished alright.
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974. msphar
6:07 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
time for bed on the left coast.
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973. 0741
6:05 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
yes ull taking wave apart their too many ull for it to become td so look like we not thing to worry this weekend
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972. msphar
5:58 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
this wave activity is falling apart nicely as it is being drawn Northwards toward the two buzz saws.
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971. moonlightcowboy
5:19 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
That's a nice blog, WB.
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970. weatherblog
5:14 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
I made a blog about this caribbean system. Please check it out...my thoughts about this wave are all in there. I am only 13 yrs. old though, so don't get mad if it's not quite perfect. Thanks...
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
968. weatherblog
4:42 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Yeah, I kinda wonder how development is possible anytime soon, with no low at the surface...O_o

I think if it gets convection wrapping around a closed low by tomorrow, we are looking at TD 3 or Chantal. Well, assuming the ULL is not affecting this system.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
967. moonlightcowboy
4:40 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
I'll still guess(say) that the pressure is getting "lower" around St. Martin and St. Kitts. You may get to see it on a map tomorrow, maybe not.

There is no shear to prohibit at this time. There is apparent convection at the mid, upper levels. It sits over warm waters and will likely draw moisture from the surface and it's possible these layers will stack vertically and we may begin to see some development. May happen in the night, or if it can hold on during the day, may be tomorrow night. IMHO
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965. msphar
4:39 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
I think I see it firing east in the Virgins and also a bit north of that area.
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964. weatherblog
4:35 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
I think you are right.

Earlier today it seemed to be around 65W and 16N...but I guess the convection has moved N'ish.

And therefore I'm guessing the low, if there is one, is ENE of PR...where the heaviest convection is. lol..But I'm probably wrong.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
962. moonlightcowboy
4:31 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
WB, I'm guessing the area between St. Martin and St, Kitts?
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961. weatherblog
4:29 AM GMT on July 20, 2007
Can someone please tell me where you think this wave's low is??

lol..if I actually know where the low is, I can have a better understanding of how this system is organizing...well, if at all.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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