New NHC revelations; Atlantic tropical update; Hawaii watches Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, but we will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance. The UKMET model is forecasting the development of a low pressure system here on Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm, though, due to the presence of high wind shear.

Large amounts of dry air and African dust cover the eastern Atlantic, and this dusty air is moving westward towards the Caribbean. Tropical storm development is unlikely in this region for the coming five days. Thereafter, as a major shift in the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern puts a ridge of high pressure in place over the Eastern U.S., the Saharan dust outbreaks may decrease. Additionally, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is expected to decrease substantially by next week, and chances of tropical storm formation are much higher next week than they were this week.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Depression Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is struggling with 10-20 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures of about 25 degrees C. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some this morning, and it is possible that the unfavorable shear and SSTs will kill the depression before it encounters warmer waters and lower shear on Friday. If Cosme does survive the next 24 hours, it could re-intensify to a weak tropical storm and brush the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

More on the National Hurricane Center controversy
In an article published in the Houston Chronicle yesterday, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said that employees of the center were not coerced by NOAA management into signing the July 5 letter of no confidence against director Bill Proenza. This view was echoed by NHC's top administrator in an Orlando Sentinel article. Franklin outlined a variety of reasons why the staff lost confidence in Proenza--Proenza lacked experience in hurricane forecasting and showed little interest in learning the science, ignored his employees to the tune of 2000 unread email from them, and lied to the press about his employees' reaction to his reprimand from NWS chief Mary Glackin.

Also in the Houston Chronicle story is the revelation that Proenza never applied for the position of director of NHC. He was demoted into it, according to Daniel Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. This raises the question, who put Proenza into the job? Why did they do it? Hopefully, this will get answered at today's congressional hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; emergency management officials who worked with Proenza; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. With the exception of Lautenbacher, all these witnesses are likely to be allies of Proenza. Also testifying will be Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel today. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify is anyone from the National Hurricane Center. Also absent is a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments, that I have seen, the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In fact, in comments published in the Orlando Sentinel, Dr. Atlas claimed that Proenza's statement that loss of the loss of QuikSCAT could reduce the accuracy of hurricane-track forecasts by as much as 16 percent represents "the consensus of the scientific community." Well, that is not the case, as myself and senior hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center will attest to. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid--at today's hearing.

The hearing charter for today's hearing raises these questions:

Why was Proenza chosen to be Director of the highest profiled Center at NOAA?

Beyond the items listed in the Glackin memorandum--which NOAA stresses was not a reprimand document and was not placed in Mr. Proenza's personnel file--are there any other actions that better justify the action to place Proenza on leave?

Why was there such a depth of dissatisfaction over Proenza's focus on a particular satellite?

What is needed to properly equip the Tropical Prediction Center, and are those resources available at this time?

Was the Tropical Prediction Center incapable of carrying out its core task of identifying, tracking and predicting hurricanes before the evaluation team was dispatched by Admiral Lautenbacher?

Jeff Masters

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461. kmanislander
9:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: amazinwxman at 9:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.

someone what are the exact coordinates for this tropical wave in the caribbean that has potential? I want to draw it in on my tracking map.


There are no coordinates as this is not a system with a low center ( as far as we are aware anyway ). The lat and long of the wave can be found in the 2:05 discussion
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460. BahaHurican
4:53 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
For anybody looking for a little "real" spin, you might want to check out the EPac sat.
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459. WPBHurricane05
5:20 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
And probably about Proenza too.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
458. Bamatracker
9:20 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
wow....do we have a real blob about to be an invest?
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457. amazinwxman
9:18 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
LOL you about called it Kmanislander
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456. eaglesrock
5:19 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
Tropicfreak...I think those probabilities are too high...LOL
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455. sporteguy03
9:18 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
No Barometer Bob show tonight :( Hope Bob is feeling better after his operation, he would be talking about this at length tonight.
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454. RL3AO
4:19 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
97L:99.999%
TD:70%
ts:60%
H:55%
Major hurricane:50%

take about 49% off of everything and you will be close
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453. tropicfreak
5:17 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
97L:99.999%
TD:70%
ts:60%
H:55%
Major hurricane:50%
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451. ryang
5:18 PM AST on July 19, 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED
. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12415
450. eaglesrock
5:18 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
Probably because it's close to land.
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449. RL3AO
4:17 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
I call 6 posts of it
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448. eaglesrock
5:17 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
447. KYhomeboy
9:17 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
445. RL3AO
4:16 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
Tonight will be interesting
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444. KYhomeboy
9:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
LMAO Kmanislander!!!! Your probably right.
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443. hurricane667
9:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
I have a feeling the east carribbean wave will be 97L by tomorrow morning
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442. eaglesrock
5:15 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
Or...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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441. amazinwxman
9:14 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
someone what are the exact coordinates for this tropical wave in the caribbean that has potential? I want to draw it in on my tracking map.
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438. WPBHurricane05
5:14 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
probably kman lol
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
437. kmanislander
9:13 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: eaglesrock at 9:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.

We are all anxiously awaiting the 5:30 TWO.


I expect it will say something like " the Caribbean wave has become a little better organised since this morning and some slow development is possible as it moves to the WNW " LOL
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436. weatherblog
9:11 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Me too...couldnt connect to site either.
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435. amazinwxman
9:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
groundman don't feel old I'm 27 and I know Jackie Gleason I have the honeymooners on DVD as well as "The Postman rings twice" and "Sunset Blvd."
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434. kmanislander
9:11 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Taz

Pls resize your 8:11 post as it is stretching the blog

Thanks
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433. eaglesrock
5:11 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
We are all anxiously awaiting the 5:30 TWO.
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432. kmanislander
9:10 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Pressure is down and falling further W of the heaviest convection. The IR image shows several pockets of deepening convection which is impressive during day time

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430. tropicfreak
5:08 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
I'm very anxious to see the 530 update
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429. sporteguy03
9:07 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
JP,
Your job tonight to ask Tom Terry about the wave on Eye on the Tropics! :)
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428. groundman
9:05 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
I'm almost getting bored with anticipation. If I stay off of here and the tv and radio for 5 days will I be surprised? Probably terrified?? LOL
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427. groundman
9:02 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: RL3AO at 8:08 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.

but keep in mind one cardinal rule

just becuase conditions are right, doesnt mean it will do anything

And the second cardinal rule

just because conditions are not right, doesn't mean it won't do anything


Wasn't it Jackie Gleason (showing age now, LOL) that used to say "How True it is?" Well how true it is above, that sums up what has happened this year for sure.

Also this was the breeding ground for Dennis and Charley, also for 250 weak tropical storms and also a few hurricanes that went NW into Mexico. It IS a breeding ground.
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426. Thundercloud01221991
9:03 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
NOTE-Very warm SST'S down there.

I think that you should take away the Vary Warm and put Extreamly hot
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425. hurricane23
5:02 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
I should head west for a while but last time i checked there is another trof of low pressure that is set to move into the southeast sometime this weekend.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
424. MrNiceville
8:45 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
polar orbit - ascending means headed north across the equator, descending means headed south...

GigEm
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423. hurricane23
4:58 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
With shear and dry air not being a significant problem things could get very interesting the next couple of days.

NOTE-Very warm SST'S down there.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
422. franck
8:54 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Take a look at the Western Atlantic Water Vapor Loop. The large, upper level spin to the north of the Caribbean wave may be countering any development for now.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
421. IKE
3:51 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
Found this on the Key West, Fl extended discussion...may tell you where that wave is headed....

"The low level ridge is indicated to build just north of the Keys for
Tuesday through Thursday...with southeast flow in the lower 5000
feet in the atmosphere and precipitable water remaining near 2.00
inches....combined with deep and moderate south flow continuing from
5000 up to 15000 feet on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A deeper low and
middle level ridge will gradually become more established north of
the Keys on Wednesday and Thursday...however the main axis of the
wave presently now near Puerto Rico could impact the area by
Wednesday night and Thursday. Given this source of synoptic
lift...see no reason to deviate from inherited middle of the Road
rain chances."

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
419. jcpoulard
8:49 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
The area of cloud near Porto Rico is very Strange at this time ! May be a MOnster will born here !
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418. TheCaneWhisperer
4:50 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
Put RL3AO's comment and mine together and you have your answer aggie.
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417. TheCaneWhisperer
4:48 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
Ascending is the morning pass and Descending is the evening pass.
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416. RL3AO
3:45 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
ascending it is coming from the northwest, and descending it is coming from the southwest

EDIT: flip flop those
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415. eaglesrock
4:45 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
Yeah...will be interesting to see what the 5:30 TWO says.
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414. RL3AO
3:45 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
I think that is the 7th time the 11am TWO has been posted lol.
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412. tropicfreak
4:44 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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411. hurricane23
4:44 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
As of the 2:05pm NHC discussion the wave was moving at west at 15-20mph....If that persists shear looks favorable all the way to the western caribbean.About 5-20kts of shear in its path.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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