New NHC revelations; Atlantic tropical update; Hawaii watches Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, but we will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance. The UKMET model is forecasting the development of a low pressure system here on Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm, though, due to the presence of high wind shear.

Large amounts of dry air and African dust cover the eastern Atlantic, and this dusty air is moving westward towards the Caribbean. Tropical storm development is unlikely in this region for the coming five days. Thereafter, as a major shift in the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern puts a ridge of high pressure in place over the Eastern U.S., the Saharan dust outbreaks may decrease. Additionally, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is expected to decrease substantially by next week, and chances of tropical storm formation are much higher next week than they were this week.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Depression Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is struggling with 10-20 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures of about 25 degrees C. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some this morning, and it is possible that the unfavorable shear and SSTs will kill the depression before it encounters warmer waters and lower shear on Friday. If Cosme does survive the next 24 hours, it could re-intensify to a weak tropical storm and brush the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

More on the National Hurricane Center controversy
In an article published in the Houston Chronicle yesterday, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said that employees of the center were not coerced by NOAA management into signing the July 5 letter of no confidence against director Bill Proenza. This view was echoed by NHC's top administrator in an Orlando Sentinel article. Franklin outlined a variety of reasons why the staff lost confidence in Proenza--Proenza lacked experience in hurricane forecasting and showed little interest in learning the science, ignored his employees to the tune of 2000 unread email from them, and lied to the press about his employees' reaction to his reprimand from NWS chief Mary Glackin.

Also in the Houston Chronicle story is the revelation that Proenza never applied for the position of director of NHC. He was demoted into it, according to Daniel Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. This raises the question, who put Proenza into the job? Why did they do it? Hopefully, this will get answered at today's congressional hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; emergency management officials who worked with Proenza; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. With the exception of Lautenbacher, all these witnesses are likely to be allies of Proenza. Also testifying will be Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel today. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify is anyone from the National Hurricane Center. Also absent is a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments, that I have seen, the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In fact, in comments published in the Orlando Sentinel, Dr. Atlas claimed that Proenza's statement that loss of the loss of QuikSCAT could reduce the accuracy of hurricane-track forecasts by as much as 16 percent represents "the consensus of the scientific community." Well, that is not the case, as myself and senior hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center will attest to. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid--at today's hearing.

The hearing charter for today's hearing raises these questions:

Why was Proenza chosen to be Director of the highest profiled Center at NOAA?

Beyond the items listed in the Glackin memorandum--which NOAA stresses was not a reprimand document and was not placed in Mr. Proenza's personnel file--are there any other actions that better justify the action to place Proenza on leave?

Why was there such a depth of dissatisfaction over Proenza's focus on a particular satellite?

What is needed to properly equip the Tropical Prediction Center, and are those resources available at this time?

Was the Tropical Prediction Center incapable of carrying out its core task of identifying, tracking and predicting hurricanes before the evaluation team was dispatched by Admiral Lautenbacher?

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 561 - 511

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

560. Dropsonde
10:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
This system could get really interesting in about 8-10 hours, which I think is its best chance at becoming 97L/TD3. I was more interested in the African waves yesterday, but this little wave (not so little, actually) is definitely pulling together.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
559. gthsii
10:17 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
thank goodness someone verified my coriolis comment, was beginning to feel i was incorrect. instead i was just incomplete

:-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
558. kmanislander
10:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Will BB later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
557. HurrMichaelOrl
9:55 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
From my ameteur point of view, for a short time 96L looked like a well organized tropical depression, but of course it was soon reduced to a naked swirl by shear and the sahara dust. If this current disturbance develops would a charley like track be likely, or a track more to the west?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
556. Drakoen
10:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: gthsii at 10:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.

Where do you see or hear Max? Weather channel?


miami news station.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
555. guygee
10:11 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: amazinwxman at 10:04 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.
Ok last question to whomever wants to answer it but why does weak systems like invests and TD's move west and/or wnw but when it strengthens it starts to take a northward move?

What several other folks said above: the stronger the system gets the deeper the steering flow. Plus the effect of the rotation of the Earth causes the "Beta Effect" (Beta Drift)towards the NW in the Northern Hemisphere. Some heavy reading on the Beta Effect here: Link
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
554. gthsii
10:14 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Where do you see or hear Max? Weather channel?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
553. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:07 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
steady as she goes this is about to go bang convection firing rapiditly over leewards cirulation evident south inflow detected
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53526
552. Drakoen
10:09 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Max Mayfeild talked about the wave and he said the NHC needs to see a more concentrated area of thunderstorms. Max Mayfeild just called them and the NHC said that the pressures are dropping and the Lesser Antilles have stopped their easterly flow to a more Southerly flow.

To me, that means that there may be something trying to form at the SFC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
551. amazinwxman
10:09 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Thanks everyone for your help and answers I love the tropics so much I'm actually going to school to be a Met and I'm in the BMP but am a sophmore so I haven't gotten into any weather related classes yet but I can't wait til I do!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
550. wederwatcher555
10:09 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
anyone have a WAG for when we'll see 97L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
549. Dropsonde
10:08 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
amazinwxman:

When a system intensifies, its cloud tops expand higher. The steering winds at higher altitudes usually have a more northerly component to them than at lower altitudes, which have a strong westward flow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
548. gthsii
10:07 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Ok last question to whomever wants to answer it but why does weak systems like invests and TD's move west and/or wnw but when it strengthens it starts to take a northward move?

Coriolis effect, i believe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
547. kmanislander
10:06 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: amazinwxman at 10:04 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.

Ok last question to whomever wants to answer it but why does weak systems like invests and TD's move west and/or wnw but when it strengthens it starts to take a northward move?


Weak systems are steered by the low level flow which tends to be E to W or WNW and strong systems are steered by upper level winds and these tend to produce a more Northerly track for hurricanes unless there is a strong high pressure ridge to the N of the system

Hope this helps
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
546. RL3AO
5:06 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
Ok last question to whomever wants to answer it but why does weak systems like invests and TD's move west and/or wnw but when it strengthens it starts to take a northward move?

I think it is either the higher clouds of a stronger system gets affected by the easterlies more or that is has something to do with the coriolis effect.
545. WPBHurricane05
6:04 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
Max Mayfield is watching the wave. He said where we normally see east winds, we are seeing south winds.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
544. amazinwxman
10:02 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Ok last question to whomever wants to answer it but why does weak systems like invests and TD's move west and/or wnw but when it strengthens it starts to take a northward move?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
543. snotly
10:03 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
if it had a coc id put it at 17N 63W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
542. Trouper415
9:58 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
This Rainbow Loop convection appears to be starting to form around the spin. Convection seems to be getting its act together in a more organized fashion. This system has the ingredients to strengthen and all of them are there except the organization which it looks like it's starting too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
541. groundman
9:50 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Remember many moons ago like two weeks when lots of signs were pointing to toward the end of the month?? I seem to remember the 19th being mentioned quite a bit?? Guess what day it is? Welcome to the REAL hurricane season. LOL

BTW our old friend the navy site hasn't gotten 97L up yet, of course the NHC doesn't either. Just the Charlotte Sun Herald?
540. guygee
9:57 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: gthsii at 9:57 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.
that article mattrix linked to, did ya notice that sat picture was not current?

Also says "If this course holds, the storm would approach the Leeward/Windward Islands in about three days."

Link is not current, maybe they wrote a "what-if" story a few days ago LOL.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
539. gthsii
9:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
that article mattrix linked to, did ya notice that sat picture was not current?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
538. RL3AO
4:55 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
96L was 10x more impressive at its peak than this.
536. guygee
9:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: amazinwxman at 9:50 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.
what I know tropics wise is that ULL's destroy tropical systems so will that be the case with the blob in the caribbean and if not then why?
amazinwxman - My thoughts: If a ULL is positioned to the W or NW of an upper high then it could enhance outflow and provide some upper-level divergence to actually help a TC form. So it is all in the relative positioning. Too close to a ULL and the system gets sheared, but at a "favorable distance" it can help a TC to form and strengthen.

In the longer term, it matters if the ULL stays "in tandem", gets out of the way, or gets "too close".
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
534. HurricaneRoman
9:52 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Is the shear gonna stay low enough for development ahead of this wave????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
533. kmanislander
9:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
There are two ULL's of consequence. One is N of Puerto Rico and essentially stationary and the other over the Caymans is moving away to the W.

Neither one of these should trouble the system UNLESS: a.It moves N of the islands or b. it moves to the WNW faster than the ULL over the Caymans is moving in that same direction

All of this can be seen on the WV loop


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
532. MrNiceville
9:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
I don't know - it might be the start of some spin, it might just be back-filling.

It is interesting that all the convection is occurring around a single, small area...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
531. initforwaves
9:50 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
pretty high cloud tops associated with convection at 20N 65W, but i refuse to believe the CMC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
530. Trouper415
9:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good afternoon and evening all. Hope you are all doing well.

Looking at this loop, the cloud field has really gotten larger and the wave a tad more organized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
529. HurricaneRoman
9:49 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
The wave has some** turning to it , especially in the last few hours, it seems bit stronger
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
528. nolesjeff
9:50 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
This buoy is at 67w and 15n pressure fallingLink
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
527. MrNiceville
9:44 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Ike -

the link says that - mattrix just repeated it. Guess they have a Magic 8 Ball????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
526. amazinwxman
9:48 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
what I know tropics wise is that ULL's destroy tropical systems so will that be the case with the blob in the caribbean and if not then why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
525. GetReal
9:48 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Time to get ready for work, I'll BBL to check on any new information...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
524. StormJunkie
9:45 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Hey, I was just saying it was really cool software. It is meant for large corporations and local governments, not me or you..lol

See y'all later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
523. Bamatracker
9:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
alright...back to work for me. IF anything happens with this somebody page me LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
521. GetReal
9:46 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneRoman at 9:45 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.

Hey guys i have a question... what is that spin under cuba is that a ULL ???


You are correct that is an ULL...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
520. gthsii
9:45 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Why do news outlets do this?
to sell newspaper or get hits to their site. totally irresponsible. sensationalism (sp?) and spreading FUD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
519. HurricaneRoman
9:44 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Hey guys i have a question... what is that spin under cuba is that a ULL ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
517. RL3AO
4:42 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
WTF mattrix? It says

"If the storm continues to organize, it will become Chantal. Andrea and Barry both developed in June and never became a tropical system, although they each had tropical storm force winds"
516. GetReal
9:41 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 9:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.

If something is trying to spin up it would be near 15N 65W IMO based on the cloud field I am seeing


Kman I made a similar observation a little over a hour ago... I had put it at near 16N and 63W. The same general area...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
515. IKE
4:43 PM CDT on July 19, 2007
mattrix...you said..." The National Hurricane Center calls this system an "investigation area" and has designated it 97L."....what? There's no 97L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
513. WPBHurricane05
5:42 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
mattrix- That looks like 96L but they say 97L at the end of the story. Kind of weird.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
512. eaglesrock
5:42 PM EDT on July 19, 2007
Wow...so 97L is here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
511. StormJunkie
9:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
No kidding GR, but if you have the extra cash, that is more information then you could shake a stick at...

Alright y'all, gonna take a little nap. Rough day at work, plus this may really be worth keeping an eye on tonight.

Some great preparedness and imagery links here as well as much more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 561 - 511

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.