Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

Share this Blog
3
+

There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 819 - 769

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

819. guygee
1:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
NEW BLOG, LOL.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
818. texascanecaster1
2:04 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
no drak i no that. i suppose it could be a mid level spin but several times in the past i have seen quickscat say the tropical storms didn't have low pressure centers so i imigine that is wrong and the nhc will not add an sfc low to the maps unlesss they can be sure it exists and of its location. i have seen this weak little ones form with many disturbances and never be listed. if they get stronger with more convection then they are usually listed.

also this is bizzare just happend: NEW YORK - A massive geyser of steam and debris that erupted through a midtown Manhattan street left asbestos in the dust that settled, but city officials said Thursday that tests indicated the air was safe of the carcinogen.

ADVERTISEMENT

Tests were continuing, but the city's Office of Emergency Management said in a statement that long-term health problems were "unlikely."

Streets around the crater left after the 83-year-old steam pipe ruptured near Grand Central Terminal were still closed Thursday morning, creating near-gridlock. Streams of New Yorkers walked down Park Avenue, some wearing masks to filter the air. Clumps of office workers, BlackBerries in hand, huddled on street corners for word on whether their offices would open.

The loud, rumbling eruption broke windows and rattled buildings as the broken pipe spewed steam, dirt and debris into the air. One woman died of an apparent heart attack, and about 30 people were injured, at least four seriously.

On Thursday, asbestos contamination was the main lingering health concern, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said. Some of the pipes that pump steam beneath the city to heat and cool thousands of buildings are wrapped in asbestos, which can cause fatal lung disease with prolonged exposure.

Officials quickly ruled out terrorism after the blast, but for some witnesses, the explosion, dust and chaos were frighteningly reminiscent of the scene on Sept. 11, 2001.

"We were scared to death. It sounded like a bomb hit or a bomb went off, just like 9/11. People were hysterical, crying, running down the street," said Karyn Easton, a customer at a salon a few blocks from the site of the blast. "It was really surreal."

City crews worked overnight to assess and repair the damage and to determine what happened.

Several major thoroughfares in the area remained closed. Most subway service was restored, though most of the trains continued to bypass Grand Central.

Residents in the area were to keep windows closed, and anyone exposed to the falling debris was instructed to wash carefully and isolate the clothing they were wearing in plastic bags. Eight air samples in the area around the explosion found no sign of asbestos, but six of 10 samples of debris and dust came back positive, the emergency-management agency said Thursday.

City engineers also warned that up to six feet surrounding the giant hole might be in danger of further collapse, and officials said workers would not be allowed into office buildings in a zone that covered several blocks. The Buildings Department determined late Wednesday that nearby buildings were structurally sound but some had suffered water damage and broken windows.

Officials said the pipe might have exploded under pressure caused by an infiltration of cold rainwater, or might have been damaged by a water main break.

Con Edison head Kevin Burke said the site had been inspected hours before the blast as part of a routine response to heavy rain that flooded parts of the city. He said crews had found nothing as they searched for steam rising from manhole covers or cracks in the street indications that pipes could be in jeopardy. The steam systems are normally inspected every six weeks.

It was rush hour Wednesday evening when the geyser erupted, generating a tremendous roar as 200-degree vapor sprayed as high as the top of the nearby Chrysler Building. Steam and dirt boiled from the ground for hours.

Many people were struck by falling chunks of asphalt or rock that had been blasted out of the ground. Mud covered some bystanders. A woman who was bleeding heavily was helped by police while a man lay on a stretcher in the street.

When the steam dispersed almost two hours later, a large crater was visible in the street and a red truck lay at the bottom of the hole. Two city buses and a small school bus sat abandoned and covered with grit in the middle of Lexington Avenue.

The steam pipes have ruptured before. In 1989, a steam pipe explosion near Gramercy Park killed three people and spewed loads of asbestos into the air a fact that Con Ed later admitted it concealed for days while residents were exposed.

That explosion was caused by a condition known as "water hammer," in which water condenses in a closed section of pipe. The sudden mix of hot steam and cool water can cause pressure to skyrocket, bursting the pipe.

Authorities Thursday couldn't immediately account for how the most seriously wounded victims of the latest eruption were hurt. Police said the woman who died, identified as Lois Baumerich, 57, of Hawthorne, N.J., suffered cardiac arrest.

She and 15 other people were taken to Bellevue Hospital, where two seriously injured patients were being treated in a trauma unit, hospital spokesman Stephen Bohlen said. Two other people were in critical condition at New York Weill-Cornell Medical Center, said hospital spokeswoman Emily Berlanstein.

Among the injured were several firefighters and police Officer Robert Mirfield, who helped evacuate 75 people trapped in a nearby office building by cutting open a gate, authorities said.

___

Associated Press Writers Jennifer Peltz, Eric Vora, Richard Pyle, Tom Hays, Marcus Franklin, David B. Caruso and Verena Dobnik and AP National Writer Deborah Hastings contributed to this report.

817. gthsii
1:54 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
speaking of the africa wave about to exit, curious but there seems to be a lull right after that one, has looked like that for a couple of days now. the train may be taking a brief break and getting ready to pick back up again after its rest.
816. bobw999
1:53 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
NEW BLOG
815. Drakoen
1:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Stoormfury, i don't think that wave is gonna last much longer. More interested in the wave at 15N 64W.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30605
814. Drakoen
1:50 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Morning StormW. Watching a strong tropical wave around the lesser Antilles.
It looks like it was in the low/mid levels. Shear is only 5-10 knots so we will see what happens.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30605
813. stoormfury
1:50 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
the low and wave in the CALT is still holding on to it's identity. although the wave is embedded in dry air, what are it's chances of development?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
812. hurricane23
1:48 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yes a mid-level spin is noted in the area near the islands.I think this wave has some chance to develope as it continues westward into the caribbean.

NHC 8:05 on the wave-

TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 20N61W 14N64W 6N64W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-70W
. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 59W-69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD TO THE ABC ISLANDS.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
810. Drakoen
1:44 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
15N 64w.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30605
809. amazinwxman
1:42 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
the wave that has passed the Antilles (sp?) does that wave have potential to do something and what are it's coordinates please?
808. biff4ugo
1:38 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
There is something big spinning off the edge of Africa today.
Looks like the hurricane generating "smoke signals" I'm used to.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1590
807. Drakoen
1:34 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
There is no SFC low according to the QuickSAT, buoy,vis loops, and vorticity analysis. Maybe a mid level spin.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30605
806. texascanecaster1
1:32 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
thanks eagle didn't know that.
805. texascanecaster1
1:32 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
hold on getting coordinates. when you look at the rainbow loop you can see an sfc low spinning at: 64 degrees west 13 degrees north. Did i do those coorrdinates right? anywho the sfc low is sort of elongated but it is no longer a trough of low pressure. Because it is not peak heating of the day yet convection over the sfc low exists but is not intense yet. should it become intense and organized in that area later today it could become a depression but i do not think that will happen.
804. eaglesrock
1:31 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
TCC, I've been here since last August. And yes, I'm the same eagles from storm chat.
803. Drakoen
1:28 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
texascanecaster1 where is the SFC low???
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30605
802. texascanecaster1
1:27 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
hello eagles welcome to weather underground have you been here before? you are the same eagles from stormchat right? any this system has a definite sfc low now but not enough organization yet however when the heating of the gets going it could get some nice organized convection. shear is forecast to rise in this area soon due to a ull. however the ull must dip south for this to happen and that isn't happening yet. if the system move north in anyway it dies. if it moves due west or sw and the ull continues moving west to wnw then it probabaly will develop. however that ull could dip south at anytime and end it.

801. Drakoen
1:26 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
the 700mb vorticity shows that there is some spin in the area.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30605
800. groundman
1:26 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Kindergarten, I do know how to spell it. DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
799. kmanislander
1:25 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Well gotta get ready for work now but will BB later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15847
798. groundman
1:24 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.
Yes Kman this is area to watch in opinion as you can already see some hints of mid-level spin in the area.


Maybe moonlightcowboy was right last night. @ the present course looks like it's heading for TX @ this rate? Of course I realize there are 3 million reasons for it not to develop or head a different direction. :-)

I'm SURE this is a bit like kindgergarten for most of you but there is an online guide or course if you will on tropical storms by NOAA
HERE. Quite interesting and after I read it all maybe I will retain 1/10 of what it says?
797. amazinwxman
1:24 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good Morning all

Ok so whats going on in the tropics this morn? anything that has potential and hurricane23 what area is the one to watch?
796. kmanislander
1:23 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Hi Drak

The Caribbean wave and the one that just exited the W coast of Africa are the two potential players IMO.

There is some spin near the ABC islands and shear is low in the Caribbean at this time. The only inhibiting factor of note is the ULL over the Caymans which has been stationary now for two days. If that moves away it would open the door for some possible development in the NW Caribbean this weekend depending on how the wave tracks through the Caribbean
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15847
795. hurricane23
1:20 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Another pic...

rr
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
794. Drakoen
1:20 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
hello everyone. I see we are watching the wave of Africa and the wave around the lesser Anitlles.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30605
793. hurricane23
1:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yes Kman this is area to watch in opinion as you can already see some hints of mid-level spin in the area.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
792. eaglesrock
1:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
I feel sorry for Japan.
791. texascanecaster1
1:11 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
good mornin all. on a non weather related subject i thought i would post this. it seems that japans nuclear power plant is leaking. also many of you may not know but the earthquake caused a new gigantioc crack faultline to form which bascilly cracked the island in half although the two peices still remain together for now. :

By ERIC TALMADGE, Associated Press Writer
Wed Jul 18, 7:53 PM ET



KASHIWAZAKI, Japan - An earthquake-wracked nuclear power plant was ordered closed indefinitely Wednesday amid growing anger over revelations that damage was much worse than initially announced and mounting international concern about Japan's nuclear stewardship.

ADVERTISEMENT

Toyota and other Japanese automakers, meanwhile, suspended production at factories across the country because a major parts supplier sustained damage from Monday's magnitude-6.8 quake, which killed 10 people and left tens of thousands without power or water.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. warned that the nuclear plant shutdown could lead to power shortages in Japan. It has asked six other power companies to consider providing emergency electricity to prepare for rising demand from summer air conditioning, spokesman Hiroshi Itagaki said.

The mayor of Kashiwazaki, a city of 93,500 on the northern coast, called in the head of the nation's biggest power company and ordered the damaged nuclear station closed until its safety could be confirmed, escalating a showdown over a long list of problems at the world's most powerful generating plant.

"I am worried," Mayor Hiroshi Aida said in ordering the closure. "The safety of the plant must be assured before it is reopened."

Officials at Tokyo Electric, operator of the plant, said damage caused by the quake posed no danger to people or the environment.

But damage was widely visible on the site, from cracked roads and buckled sidewalks to the charred outside wall of an electrical transformer building that caught fire.

"To be honest, it's a mess," said company President Tsunehisa Katsumata, but he insisted fears of radioactive contamination were unfounded.

That did little to calm anger over the company's slow revelations of damage at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, which generates 8.2 million kilowatts of electricity. The plant, like much of the nuclear industry in Japan, has been plagued with mishaps, such as a radioactive leak in a turbine room in 2001.

On Tuesday, the utility shocked the nation by releasing a list of dozens of problems triggered by the quake, after earlier reporting only the transformer fire and a small leak of radioactive water.

The new list of problems included the transformer fire, broken pipes, water leaks and spills of radioactive waste. It also said the leak of radioactive water into the Sea of Japan was 50 percent bigger than announced Monday night.

"We made a mistake in calculating the amount that leaked into the ocean," the company said in a statement. Spokesman Jun Oshima said the amount was still "one-billionth of Japan's legal limit."

Even that list had to be revised. Tokyo Electric said later Wednesday that about 400 barrels containing low-level nuclear waste had tipped over at a storage facility at the plant during the quake, revising an earlier figure of 100.

The lids were knocked off about 40 barrels, spilling their contents onto the floor, spokesman Tsutomu Uehara told reporters in Tokyo. Uehara said no radiation had been detected outside the facility.

Concerns about nuclear safety echoed across Japan, which depends on 55 reactors for about 30 percent of its electricity needs.

"Japan has a dense population so the human damage would be major here. There would be many deaths," Hideyuki Ban, a director of the civil group Citizen's Nuclear Information Center, told reporters. "I think that a quake-prone country should phase out its use of nuclear power."

The International Atomic Energy Agency pressed Japan's government to undertake a thorough investigation of the damage to see if lessons could be applied to nuclear plants elsewhere.

Speaking in Malaysia, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei offered help from his U.N. watchdog agency.

"I would hope, and I trust, that Japan would be fully transparent in its investigation of that accident," he said. "The agency would be ready to join Japan through an international team in reviewing that accident and drawing the necessary lessons."

Katsumata, Tokyo Electric's president, said the company would thoroughly study the impact of the earthquake.

"We will conduct an investigation from the ground up. But I think fundamentally we have confirmed that our safety measures worked," he said. "It is hard to make everything go perfectly."

Yet, while Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries, executives at the plant admitted they had not foreseen such a powerful temblor hitting the facility.

The plant's deputy superintendent, Masakazu Minamidate, said the strongest known quake in the region previously was a magnitude 6.5. "This was stronger than we expected," he said.

New data from aftershocks following Monday's offshore quake suggested a fault line may run underneath the power plant itself, which was only 12 miles from the epicenter.

Minamidate said an onshore survey of fault lines had been completed, but not one offshore. While it was unclear how close the fault line involved in the quake is to the plant, Meteorological Agency official Osamu Kamigaichi said it might stretch under the site.

Japan's Coast Guard said it would launch a study of the ocean floor off Kashiwazaki starting Friday to better map fault lines in the area.

Repercussions from the quake also were felt in the business world.

Shares of Tokyo Electric Power Co. fell in trading on Tuesday and Wednesday, and were at 5 percent below their closing price last week. They ended at $29.5 Wednesday their lowest level since early December on heavy trading of more than 13 million shares.

The temporary closure of auto parts maker Riken Corp.'s plant at Kashiwazaki forced Toyota Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Co., Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. to scale back production.

Toyota, Japan's No. 1 automaker and challenging General Motors Corp. for world leadership, will stop production lines at a dozen factories centered in central Aichi prefecture Thursday afternoon and all day Friday, Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco said.

Several thousand Kashiwazaki residents remained in gymnasiums and civic centers Wednesday night because their homes had either been destroyed or damaged or because water service remained off.

Search teams pulled a 10th body from the rubble Wednesday night, and one man was listed as missing.
790. kmanislander
1:09 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good morning everyone

A very strong wave is traversing the Caribbean this morning and there is some hint of a rotation near 12N 68W. The quikscat pass for the morning does not show a surface low but there is a SE to NE wind shift

If the ULL over the Caymans moves away or weakens this wave could become quite interesting in The C and NW Caribbean

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15847
789. primez
1:03 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
It's funny, because Newsday JUST yesterday said that yesterday's storm demonstrated Long Island's unpreparedness for a hurricane. If CMC's fantasy were to come true, it would REALLY put us to the test.

The article:http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-lilipa0719,0,600351.story?coll=ny-baseball-h eadlines&track=mostemailedlink
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
788. IKE
12:57 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
This trough that's coming into the SE USA this weekend...that's it for troughs in the east for awhile. The doctors talk of the pattern changing is fixin to come true.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
787. initforwaves
12:39 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Morning all. Looks pretty quiet so far, tropical wave at 12N about to come off Africa but everything else looks really disorganized...
786. MrNiceville
12:26 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
OK, guys, I said it was a CMC fantasy - I don't see how in the world "it could happen tomorrow" (I'll leave that to the WC)...

Seriously, any chance of the low up there developing and heading west? I also noticed an area of spin on the WV loop just S of Cuba - in the visible, there's really nothing but a few puffy clouds.

It looks, this morning, like the ITCZ train tracks guide everything into SA.


Thoughts?
785. MrNiceville
12:01 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good Morning.

Well, I see that the CMC hasn't left the opium den, yet. The 00Z run shifts the track ever so slightly westward and takes the "storm" directly into the heart of the NE now!

I don't want to encourage the CMC - it's been such a dog this season...

But, anyone notice that the low at 66W26N is actually migrating SE just a bit?

Here's a CMC fantasy for everyone...

The aforementioned low gets pushed SSE and then SW by the AB high. Somewhere just north of the DR, it organizes better and draws in the moisture now in the Windwards. The trough moves off the east coast and the developed TD begins it's trek NNE.

That's as far as I absolutley can stretch my little imagination to even consider the CMC scenario - beyond that, the CMC is simply a crack fiend...
783. Caymanite
11:38 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good morning all. Looks like the wave that was at 50W last night actually tracked south of West last night and is about to run into S America and has weakened considerably. Good news.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
782. leftovers
11:24 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Waiting to see what is going to happen. Have a nice day
781. Thundercloud01221991
11:16 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
cosme to reintensify

WHILE THE TRACK HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...FORECASTING THE INTENSITY REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER FAIRLY COOL WATER...ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST CIMSS VERTICAL PRODUCT SHOWED FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...THEN A RETURN TO NEUTRAL VALUES. WE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 30 KT... BUT IF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS IT IS LIKELY WE WOULD TAKE COSME BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ON THE NEXT BULLETIN. COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATER WITH FAIRLY LOW SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO IF THE SYSTEM DOES LOSE ALL IT/S CONVECTION DURING THAT PERIOD...IT MAY WELL BECOME TOO WEAK TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IF COSME MANAGES TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION WHEN IT MOVES WEST OF 155W...IT WILL START MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATER. IF SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH AT THAT POINT...COSME MIGHT WELL RE-INTENSIFY. THESE UNCERTAINTIES KEEP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST RATHER LOW.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
780. bobw999
10:33 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190959
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
779. stoormfury
10:30 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
has the low in the CATL reformed at 10N 34W.? I notice that there is a spin and increase convection
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
778. stoormfury
9:42 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
the wave off Africa looks impressive and should traverse the ALT without hindrance from the SAL. on the other hand the wave and low in the CALT id being infiltrated by dry air.




Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
777. stoormfury
9:35 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
A look at the SAL this morning.


Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
776. BahaHurican
6:32 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Evening (or morning :o) all,

Here's an interesting forecast for Sunday that suggests what Dr. M may have been referring to as "something to watch". Also, while many were disparaging of the CMC, isn't this the timeframe it was calling for a storm in? Maybe this "break" in the high is what is causing it to make such a initially laughable forecast.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
775. ustropics
5:43 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Latest Quikscat run of GOM.

QuicScat Image

(click image for actual size)

774. moonlightcowboy
5:34 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Groundman, good report. We were talking a good deal about Charley earlier.

For some reason (can't explain), got a hunch we're gonna see a storm (maybe Chantal) find the Texas coast! Go figure?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
773. groundman
5:31 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I've been doing an informal survey of past storms in the archives (translation, surfing lookin @ all of em, click click, mindless) Anyway when you all started talking about 60W I looked @ that general area for past development. Charley in 2004 developed there. Most of the others went slightly NW into Mexico. Just food for thought if it does become 97L.
772. moonlightcowboy
5:21 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yeah, Wish, it was alright.
It may be a fish; and I was mostly talking about the blob at about 54w...and not really saying it would do either, develop or die. There's more on the way soon anyway, I'm sure.

You have a good night.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
771. Wishcasterboy
5:13 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
It was fun debating with you, Cowboy.
770. Wishcasterboy
5:12 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I wish I would stick around, but I'm not the only one who uses this computer. As for my opinion, I remain adamant my prediction of 60W wave's fate.
769. moonlightcowboy
5:08 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Died=shear.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610

Viewing: 819 - 769

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
46 °F
Overcast