Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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819. guygee
1:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
NEW BLOG, LOL.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
817. gthsii
1:54 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
speaking of the africa wave about to exit, curious but there seems to be a lull right after that one, has looked like that for a couple of days now. the train may be taking a brief break and getting ready to pick back up again after its rest.
816. bobw999
1:53 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
NEW BLOG
815. Drakoen
1:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Stoormfury, i don't think that wave is gonna last much longer. More interested in the wave at 15N 64W.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
814. Drakoen
1:50 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Morning StormW. Watching a strong tropical wave around the lesser Antilles.
It looks like it was in the low/mid levels. Shear is only 5-10 knots so we will see what happens.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
813. stoormfury
1:50 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
the low and wave in the CALT is still holding on to it's identity. although the wave is embedded in dry air, what are it's chances of development?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
812. hurricane23
1:48 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yes a mid-level spin is noted in the area near the islands.I think this wave has some chance to develope as it continues westward into the caribbean.

NHC 8:05 on the wave-

TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 20N61W 14N64W 6N64W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-70W
. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 59W-69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD TO THE ABC ISLANDS.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
810. Drakoen
1:44 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
15N 64w.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
809. amazinwxman
1:42 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
the wave that has passed the Antilles (sp?) does that wave have potential to do something and what are it's coordinates please?
808. biff4ugo
1:38 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
There is something big spinning off the edge of Africa today.
Looks like the hurricane generating "smoke signals" I'm used to.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1588
807. Drakoen
1:34 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
There is no SFC low according to the QuickSAT, buoy,vis loops, and vorticity analysis. Maybe a mid level spin.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
804. eaglesrock
1:31 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
TCC, I've been here since last August. And yes, I'm the same eagles from storm chat.
803. Drakoen
1:28 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
texascanecaster1 where is the SFC low???
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
801. Drakoen
1:26 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
the 700mb vorticity shows that there is some spin in the area.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
800. groundman
1:26 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Kindergarten, I do know how to spell it. DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
799. kmanislander
1:25 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Well gotta get ready for work now but will BB later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
798. groundman
1:24 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.
Yes Kman this is area to watch in opinion as you can already see some hints of mid-level spin in the area.


Maybe moonlightcowboy was right last night. @ the present course looks like it's heading for TX @ this rate? Of course I realize there are 3 million reasons for it not to develop or head a different direction. :-)

I'm SURE this is a bit like kindgergarten for most of you but there is an online guide or course if you will on tropical storms by NOAA
HERE. Quite interesting and after I read it all maybe I will retain 1/10 of what it says?
797. amazinwxman
1:24 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good Morning all

Ok so whats going on in the tropics this morn? anything that has potential and hurricane23 what area is the one to watch?
796. kmanislander
1:23 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Hi Drak

The Caribbean wave and the one that just exited the W coast of Africa are the two potential players IMO.

There is some spin near the ABC islands and shear is low in the Caribbean at this time. The only inhibiting factor of note is the ULL over the Caymans which has been stationary now for two days. If that moves away it would open the door for some possible development in the NW Caribbean this weekend depending on how the wave tracks through the Caribbean
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
795. hurricane23
1:20 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Another pic...

rr
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
794. Drakoen
1:20 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
hello everyone. I see we are watching the wave of Africa and the wave around the lesser Anitlles.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
793. hurricane23
1:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yes Kman this is area to watch in opinion as you can already see some hints of mid-level spin in the area.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
792. eaglesrock
1:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
I feel sorry for Japan.
790. kmanislander
1:09 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good morning everyone

A very strong wave is traversing the Caribbean this morning and there is some hint of a rotation near 12N 68W. The quikscat pass for the morning does not show a surface low but there is a SE to NE wind shift

If the ULL over the Caymans moves away or weakens this wave could become quite interesting in The C and NW Caribbean

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
789. primez
1:03 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
It's funny, because Newsday JUST yesterday said that yesterday's storm demonstrated Long Island's unpreparedness for a hurricane. If CMC's fantasy were to come true, it would REALLY put us to the test.

The article:http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-lilipa0719,0,600351.story?coll=ny-baseball-h eadlines&track=mostemailedlink
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
788. IKE
12:57 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
This trough that's coming into the SE USA this weekend...that's it for troughs in the east for awhile. The doctors talk of the pattern changing is fixin to come true.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
787. initforwaves
12:39 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Morning all. Looks pretty quiet so far, tropical wave at 12N about to come off Africa but everything else looks really disorganized...
786. MrNiceville
12:26 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
OK, guys, I said it was a CMC fantasy - I don't see how in the world "it could happen tomorrow" (I'll leave that to the WC)...

Seriously, any chance of the low up there developing and heading west? I also noticed an area of spin on the WV loop just S of Cuba - in the visible, there's really nothing but a few puffy clouds.

It looks, this morning, like the ITCZ train tracks guide everything into SA.


Thoughts?
785. MrNiceville
12:01 PM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good Morning.

Well, I see that the CMC hasn't left the opium den, yet. The 00Z run shifts the track ever so slightly westward and takes the "storm" directly into the heart of the NE now!

I don't want to encourage the CMC - it's been such a dog this season...

But, anyone notice that the low at 66W26N is actually migrating SE just a bit?

Here's a CMC fantasy for everyone...

The aforementioned low gets pushed SSE and then SW by the AB high. Somewhere just north of the DR, it organizes better and draws in the moisture now in the Windwards. The trough moves off the east coast and the developed TD begins it's trek NNE.

That's as far as I absolutley can stretch my little imagination to even consider the CMC scenario - beyond that, the CMC is simply a crack fiend...
783. Caymanite
11:38 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good morning all. Looks like the wave that was at 50W last night actually tracked south of West last night and is about to run into S America and has weakened considerably. Good news.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
781. Thundercloud01221991
11:16 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
cosme to reintensify

WHILE THE TRACK HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...FORECASTING THE INTENSITY REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER FAIRLY COOL WATER...ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST CIMSS VERTICAL PRODUCT SHOWED FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...THEN A RETURN TO NEUTRAL VALUES. WE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 30 KT... BUT IF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS IT IS LIKELY WE WOULD TAKE COSME BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ON THE NEXT BULLETIN. COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATER WITH FAIRLY LOW SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO IF THE SYSTEM DOES LOSE ALL IT/S CONVECTION DURING THAT PERIOD...IT MAY WELL BECOME TOO WEAK TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IF COSME MANAGES TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION WHEN IT MOVES WEST OF 155W...IT WILL START MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATER. IF SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH AT THAT POINT...COSME MIGHT WELL RE-INTENSIFY. THESE UNCERTAINTIES KEEP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST RATHER LOW.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
780. bobw999
10:33 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190959
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
779. stoormfury
10:30 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
has the low in the CATL reformed at 10N 34W.? I notice that there is a spin and increase convection
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
778. stoormfury
9:42 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
the wave off Africa looks impressive and should traverse the ALT without hindrance from the SAL. on the other hand the wave and low in the CALT id being infiltrated by dry air.




Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
777. stoormfury
9:35 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
A look at the SAL this morning.


Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
776. BahaHurican
6:32 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Evening (or morning :o) all,

Here's an interesting forecast for Sunday that suggests what Dr. M may have been referring to as "something to watch". Also, while many were disparaging of the CMC, isn't this the timeframe it was calling for a storm in? Maybe this "break" in the high is what is causing it to make such a initially laughable forecast.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
775. ustropics
5:43 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Latest Quikscat run of GOM.

QuicScat Image

(click image for actual size)

774. moonlightcowboy
5:34 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Groundman, good report. We were talking a good deal about Charley earlier.

For some reason (can't explain), got a hunch we're gonna see a storm (maybe Chantal) find the Texas coast! Go figure?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
773. groundman
5:31 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I've been doing an informal survey of past storms in the archives (translation, surfing lookin @ all of em, click click, mindless) Anyway when you all started talking about 60W I looked @ that general area for past development. Charley in 2004 developed there. Most of the others went slightly NW into Mexico. Just food for thought if it does become 97L.
772. moonlightcowboy
5:21 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yeah, Wish, it was alright.
It may be a fish; and I was mostly talking about the blob at about 54w...and not really saying it would do either, develop or die. There's more on the way soon anyway, I'm sure.

You have a good night.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
771. Wishcasterboy
5:13 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
It was fun debating with you, Cowboy.
770. Wishcasterboy
5:12 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I wish I would stick around, but I'm not the only one who uses this computer. As for my opinion, I remain adamant my prediction of 60W wave's fate.
769. moonlightcowboy
5:08 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Died=shear.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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