Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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419. charley04survivor
11:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
sporte,

I remember the day Charley hit. Our local forecasters kept saying he was going to Tampa, a few hours later BOOM.
417. scwindsaloft
11:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
ahhhh nothing like a good ol "technical discussion" lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 400
416. sporteguy03
11:23 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
No fights just a good debate, bring up things to watch and we discuss.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
413. sporteguy03
11:22 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
ok JP,
I was debating with someone about Tom Terry's Charley forecast how he did so much on August 13th that helped many in Central FL
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
412. JLPR
11:22 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Jum looks like the wave near 10 and 50 could have some rotation to it maynot not at the lower levels but somewere and it also has some outflow.
looks interesting but needs to go in a more northern direction to develop
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
411. charley04survivor
11:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I thought the weather was pretty much a straight forward thing. You look at facts. How do people argue against all the facts, and turn this into a fight?
410. sporteguy03
11:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 9:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
sportguy03,
Gonna have to run some more sateliite loops...looks like there could be a small spin trying to start in the mid to upper, but only show up on the last frame of the satellite loop. I just ran IR, IR2, JSL, RGB, and visible and couldn't detect anything in the lower levels. There is great divergence aloft, but very little convergence at the surface. We may be seeing some outflow beginning in the upper. In fact, the latest shear map shows a decent outfloew pattern at 60W; 13N.


JP something there but it will hit SA so no development right?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
407. charley04survivor
11:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Is this blog always this confrontational?
406. sporteguy03
11:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Were you here late last night like 12am-1am
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
404. sporteguy03
11:17 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hey Jp,
Missed you last night! :)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
403. charley04survivor
11:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I believe they exaggerated the whole NYC situation. At first they had said that a "building had exploded and collapsed" in downtown... Now apparently its mostly steam, and no injuries.
402. bobw999
11:12 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
New York is having enough excitement Link
400. JLPR
11:11 PM GMT on Julio 18, 2007
22 - 6
it says 22.15
so its around 6:15- 6:30
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
399. charley04survivor
11:10 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
In my experiences, the CMC is not a reliable tropical model.
398. Tazmanian
4:07 PM PDT on July 18, 2007
kylejourdan2006 i been watching that wave all day today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
397. ryang
7:08 PM AST on July 18, 2007
No way... Then how come so much convection is over the islands??
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394. ryang
7:04 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Use the images from the NHC SAT page... 30 MIns updates...
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393. ryang
7:02 PM AST on July 18, 2007
LOL... That's old by 6 hours... this say's 22:15...
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390. eye
10:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
i thought there was on Sat that updated every 30 minutes
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389. Wishcasterboy
10:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
The wave over the Antilles looks to be dying down.
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388. kylejourdan2006
4:57 PM MDT on July 18, 2007
ryang: Not that old. It's the latest available from the NOAA SSD, and it's 3:15pm MST (5:15pm EST) - so it's almost 2 hours old, but nonetheless it's the latest available.
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387. KYhomeboy
10:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Amazinwxman...I get what your saying. It's all good!
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385. ryang
6:53 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Kyle... That's an old image...
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384. kylejourdan2006
4:52 PM MDT on July 18, 2007
jp: Just an area to watch. If you watch the loops, it's moving WNW. There are certain areas that I can see go straight towards S. America, but this one's worth monitoring.
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383. amazinwxman
10:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
KY Homeboy and Jeanri you both are right so I formally apologize to those/any I have offended and hope that you all know I find this site useful and informative and appreciate being able to even come to this site & blog.
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382. Wishcasterboy
10:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
That's what I was thinking. It seems to far south to be picked up by the upper latitude steering currents.
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381. Wishcasterboy
10:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Ignorance can be deadly.
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380. iahishome
10:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hmm, latest Gulf of Mexico is now showing a broad -- week trough of low pressure extending NorthEast of the blob off of Mexico's east coast in the Gulf of Mexico.

I've been waiting for that thing to die and it won't... Are any of the models doing anything with that blob?

I don't see a lot of shear in the area, but don't know where to go to get shear forecasts. I'm not weather trained at all, but the fact that it's still doing interesting things at an uninteresting time such as late afternoon is a bit concerning...

Or is there a land effect causing the convection? I know convection over land or Mountains tends to peak in late afternoon.
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378. kylejourdan2006
4:49 PM MDT on July 18, 2007
I'm watching this area approaching the islands:



It has a noticable rotation on satellite loops and has plenty of convection. As for environmental conditions, it appears there really isn't any dry air that would affect it and wind shear over and in front of it is 5-10kts.

Wouldn't be surprised to see this pop into the next TWO.
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377. charley04survivor
10:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I have lurked here for quite a while. I've seen some of the dire predictions that 2007 will be active. I thought it was time to start paying more attention.

Yes, I went through the eyewall of Charley. We had a sturdy new house and even boarded up our windows. Something apparently hit one of our boarded up windows and before you knew it the piece of plywood flew off, the window broke, then the roof was gone. There we were huddled under a mattress in a closet. I think a tornado must have hit us, because only two walls of the house were left standing.

I live in Riverview now, and am surprised by the people who live here. The majority I talk to say that if a hurricane comes this way they will ride it out and not even bother to board up or anything. They think the Tampa area can't be hit by a storm.

375. amazinwxman
10:43 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Changing the subject back to weather just wanted to vent I do enjoy this blog and didn't say what I did to argue for five minutes or over with anyone. My other message didn't post but I do enjoy and go by what StormW and ryang(sp?) have to say on their blogs as well as Dr. M so I will eat half a slice of humble pie that I do listen to others and don't know everything or that much yet about tropical weather myself
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374. jeanri2000
10:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
amzinwxman,

being one of those people who does not know anything about tropical systems, I very much welcome and appreciate the discussions that come aboard. If you really read the blog you will notice that some people in the one camp (it won't develop) and some of them are in the other camp (it will). WHat I am learning from these bloggers is to take the information that they have given me as well as what noaa and other weather professional say and make up my own opinion. This is a blog for tropical weather discussion. If we just discussed that this weather professionals says this can't develop and the other one says the same thing, than what are we learning. Nothing. I would rather hear that someone thinks something is going to develop and the reasons why they think so. In this manner I can better my education with the tropics. This post is not ment to offend just my humble opinion.
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373. Wishcasterboy
10:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I myself have never been to the warm waters of Florida. The only ocean I've ever seen is the cloudy, cold, and windy Oregon Coast.
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372. KYhomeboy
10:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Understood amazingwxman....I do agree to some extent however the NHC and other meteorological bodies often do not mention areas of disturbed weather which can and sometimes do develop. The NHC is known for sometimes not mentioning various areas of ineterst until BOOM...the next thing you know theres a tropical storm approaching the islands! Disturbances which don't offer an immediate threat seem to be over looked at times.
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371. scwindsaloft
10:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

Posted By: amazinwxmanat 10:41 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
so actually you're doing a disservice


Huh? You're missing the point
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 400
369. Alec
6:41 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Sorry to hear that Charley04......I went through Charley's eyewall in Polk county with devastating winds.....I also reside in Riverview too when Im on break from college...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.