Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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469. Bamatracker
11:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
what you make of it stormW? oh and good evening!
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468. Patrap
6:52 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
enjoying the new meds and trying to see thru the haze.LOL
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466. Bamatracker
11:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
evening patrap! how ya doing this evening!
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464. Patrap
6:50 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Is it a NWS stated derecho..?
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463. charley04survivor
11:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Sorry to cause anyone anger - wasn't my intention.
462. charley04survivor
11:49 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Yes, Punta Gorda did find out. Most of us stayed put even when it became obvious we were going to get hit...there just wasn't time to leave.
461. sporteguy03
11:49 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Patrap,
Are you angry?
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459. Patrap
6:50 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Ahhh gee,the derecho lives..
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455. Patrap
6:46 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Is this the History Hour? Not the best advice to anyone ..best to Follow the NHC in the real time. But one can always leave early in a watch or warned area. Storms dont ALWAYS follow a forecasttrack. When one is to the right of a Northtrending Cane.One must be prepared. Not betting on the track holding.As those in Punta Gorda found out.
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454. charley04survivor
11:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Tom Terry certainly isn't broadcast in Punta Gorda, or at least I hadn't heard of him if he was.
450. charley04survivor
11:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I have been very wary of any of the NHC tracks since Charley.
449. sporteguy03
11:41 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thats why I always listen to Tom Terry, he is on top of things and I respect a Met who bases weather on experience and knowledge. I know he went against the NHC but he did it for safety of his viewers. He gets standing ovations when he speaks and respect. Thats tough in the tv and weather business.
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448. eaglesrock
7:43 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
The wave over 50W has a lot of spin to it.
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447. charley04survivor
11:43 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
What is "eye on the tropics"?
446. stormybil
11:41 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
hi ya all what about the blob over africa will that be the best one yet out of all of the waves ?
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445. charley04survivor
11:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Maybe I wasn't watching at the right time. I remember going out to get some groceries thinking we wouldnt get much more than rain. While at the store people kept asking if I was going to leave and I was like no way why would I. They ended up closing the store and I thought what the heck is going on here why is everyone freaking out. Next thing I knew I got home and about an hour later it got bad.
444. Bamatracker
11:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
evening all!! woohoo! a blob to watch!
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443. JLPR
11:40 PM GMT on Julio 18, 2007
I think its going to pass really close to SA but not hit it
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
442. sporteguy03
11:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
JP,
I'll ask Tom Terry to comment on it tonight on Eye on the Tropics see what he says.
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440. nolesjeff
11:37 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: charley04survivor at 11:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

sporte,

I remember the day Charley hit. Our local forecasters kept saying he was going to Tampa, a few hours later BOOM.
You were watching wrong weather, Robert Van Winkle from NBC said it would turn on a more easterly track way before it did.
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439. DDR
11:34 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
we could sure use some good rain here in t&t.it hasnt rained much in a week or so.
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438. SAINTHURRIFAN
11:31 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
taz every cloud is not a invest one blob destined to crash into s/a
one that is showing no organization im not very smart but when the nhc continously says no development expected? they are the pros.also everybody mentions what the pitiful can model predicts with all its phantom storms but nobody mentions now for 3 weeks straight the gfs has consistently developed nothing. not picking on you taz but gets a little old you constantly posting invest next or soon. go enjoy the cali beaches and track those earthquakes i think you will find them more of a threat to you than atlantic tropical systems just try to wait loisten to the pros at nhc and the degreed meterologist they will tell you when to get excited good day.
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437. charley04survivor
11:39 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I would like to see the area maintain overnight, if it does then maybe its something to watch.
436. moonlightcowboy
11:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Jp, it looks like it's moving wnw to me, and will miss SA.
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435. sporteguy03
11:36 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Yes the EATL one is dissapating, the one I mentioned has been becoming more concentrated throughout the day and building more intense convection ITCZ related perhaps but other than land nearby why not? I would like to see if convection persists overnight
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434. charley04survivor
11:37 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I do not see the tropical wave forming into anything.
433. eaglesrock
7:36 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Shear is 5-10 knots, moist air is around it, and SSTs are 85 degrees. I think 97L will come from this.

Charley - how are conditions not favorable?
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431. Patrap
6:35 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Its a Tropical Wave..Blob is not a meteorlogical term.
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430. Tazmanian
4:34 PM PDT on July 18, 2007
yes Conditions are favorable

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114958
429. Patrap
6:33 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
There are ZERO threats and ZERO areas of interest currently in the Atlantic Basin.
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427. sporteguy03
11:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Charley why not?
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426. charley04survivor
11:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
That blob looks nice, but if you look at it closely, I don't think it will develop. Conditions are not favorable.
425. sporteguy03
11:32 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
JP,
On its current course it would be near T&T didn't Charley form in that area?
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424. DDR
11:31 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
that blob looks like trouble
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422. Patrap
6:29 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Atlantic Basin WV..enhanced Link
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421. Tazmanian
4:27 PM PDT on July 18, 2007
all eyes need to turn to this wave now!!!

there is rotation with this wave and it has be come more organized has the day went a long if this keeps up we will most likey have some in to watch overe the weekend

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114958
420. DDR
11:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb.jpg
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419. charley04survivor
11:28 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
sporte,

I remember the day Charley hit. Our local forecasters kept saying he was going to Tampa, a few hours later BOOM.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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