Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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519. Drakoen
12:16 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
It need to get above 10N, MLC. Its does have nice upper level divergence and lower level convergence, but there is still on LLC. I don't see any evidence of a LLC.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
518. Patrap
7:18 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
MichealSTL..its a bad storm.We see it.Thanx
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517. SAINTHURRIFAN
12:14 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
235 pat on a 600 ft frieghter sitting on highway 90 lolthe wind gage was stuck on that speed lol it was in the camille museum on point but her evil larger twin even tore down the camille memorials lol and fredrick at its time in 1979 was the costliest storm to hit the us was the leader till hugo in 1989 thats why i call freddy the forgotten storm except for those in sems and south alabama
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515. Bamatracker
12:15 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
well if it keeps it convection for a day or two who knows.
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514. moonlightcowboy
12:11 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Drakoen, the Itcz, is also set up wnw before dipping back down sw. Indeed, prolly getting convection from there. However, you can see some rotation. I also see that there's no low, and no llc. Still, it's over hot waters, low shear...still possible; but, it'll have to escape the itcz, maintain convection and develop an llc, too. Right?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
513. SAINTHURRIFAN
12:08 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
and imagigine weaher blog if camille had been thier size winds much stronger than either charley or andrew.
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512. Bamatracker
12:12 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
The university of South Alabama is putting up weather stations up and down the gulf coast to study landfalling hurricanes. Hopefully the are made to withstand high winds. Cool thing is they are going to make the system accessible to the public once its up and running.
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510. Patrap
7:10 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
The anemonter at Keesler AFB broke at 212 mph during Camille and is the Highest recorded wind on a US landfalling Hurricane.Officially
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508. Drakoen
12:09 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: TayTay at 12:08 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.

Looks like it's going to hit South America.

It has been gaining some latitude so it may actually be moving to the WNW.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
507. msphar
12:00 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I remember being assigned to a training squadron in Biloxi the year after Camille hit. I lived off of the back bay across the D'iberville bridge on Racetrack rd. The aptment below ours had a water line inside that was shoulder high. I was from the west coast and had no idea what a hurricane was that was winter - 1970/1971. We left the following April. I claim old fart status.
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506. Drakoen
12:08 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 12:07 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.

Drak,
How can you tell if its ITCZ enhanced or not?


Its is actually in the ITCZ. It was building convection during the day. Not normal for developing tropical systems which usually build convection during the diurnal max phase. There is still no evidence of a low pressure.
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505. TayTay
12:00 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Looks like it's going to hit South America.
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504. Drakoen
12:05 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
if you look at this loop its hard to tell where that area is going as well as the low behind it.
Link
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503. Patrap
7:06 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Well,to the folks who got wacked by Charley..it was their bad one. Its all relative.
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502. sporteguy03
12:06 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Drak,
How can you tell if its ITCZ enhanced or not?
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501. weatherblog
12:00 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Wow! Charley was a very small storm--well compared to Wilma, Katrina and Ivan.

Charley is a bit like Andrew. Very, very small eye and wind field.

If Charley and Andrew was the same size as Katrina, Ivan, or Wilma--the damage and destruction would be WAY more catastrophic than it was.
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500. charley04survivor
12:05 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
thanks Patrap, no wonder I couldn't find it!
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499. SAINTHURRIFAN
12:03 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
thanks for that reminder loop pat lol charley to katrina a nickel against a hubcap lol buy the way i cant claim that phrase i stole it from dr neil frank who gave a speech in biloxi after katrina remember him the nhc former director and a good one
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498. Bamatracker
12:04 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
ah stormW. So good old fashion wait and see?!! LOL! Thats always the case it seems like in the tropics.
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497. Drakoen
12:04 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
hmmm. Some of this convection maybe ITCZ enhanced. Have to see how it does throughout the nightime hours.
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496. Patrap
7:04 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Dr. MAsters only goes back to Jan 05..no 04 blogs
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495. Patrap
7:03 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
On the right of this page for the Drs. Blog.

For the Storm info..Tropical Page ..right side
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493. moonlightcowboy
12:02 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
...TAZ may have been right on this one. He's been saying that on this one aaalllll day long!!!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
492. SAINTHURRIFAN
11:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
true bama camille hit with sustained of 190mph fredick at 130.
i still believe karinas winds were much stronger than the following obs. charley 04 go to the archive of camille wind of 190 and 24ft surge? betsy also was a terrible storm so was audrey
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489. Drakoen
12:01 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
...TROPICAL WAVES...
LARGE AMPLITUDE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N32W 6N34W. A
1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
THE LOW ITSELF CONSISTS OF ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING IN BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 31W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD INVERTED V SHAPE. MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL E/SE FLOW S OF AN UPPER HIGH IS DISPLACING MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL TO THE W OF THE AXIS. THIS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE NRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING WAS NOTED IN THE MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
OVER THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 N OF THE ITCZ W OF
54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86/87W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR AND THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS WAVE ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC AS
DESCRIBED IN THE PACIFIC DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATWDEP.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 14N25W 11N30W 9N35W 8N50W
12N58W...13N60W 10N65W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 49W-52W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-45W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS EMERGING OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-13N
IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE TROPICAL WAVE STILL OVER THE
AFRICAN CONTINENT.
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488. sporteguy03
11:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I'm glad I pointed that area out to you StormW, wow how tropics change fast lol
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487. Patrap
6:59 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Katrina Landfall loop Link
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486. weatherblog
11:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I see we are watching one wave near 50W and 9N.
This is the first wave, actually, that I expect development from. I am not wishcasting, whatsoever.

Shear is lowering by the hour, nice outflow, warm SST's, and a lot of convection associated with this wave near the low.

The only problem is the track--. South America is right in front of the wave; and the wave seems to be moving in WNW direction. I expect it to skim the coast of South America and develop in the caribbean where conditions are favorable.

As said, I am not wishcasting, just stating my opinion.
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485. charley04survivor
11:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thanks for that link Patrap, but I was looking for the blog comments archive from that day.
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484. Drakoen
11:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Interesting area around 10N 50W seems it have some lower level convergence and upper level divergence.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
483. Bamatracker
11:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
if i can figure out how to scan the pics on to my computer i'll post them one day. Figure people on here will appreciate it.
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482. Patrap
6:57 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Charly landfall loop..Link
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481. Bamatracker
11:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hey saint...just found some old newspapers from camille, betsy, and fredrich at my grandmothers...the pictures were devestating. But not as bad as katina.
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480. sporteguy03
11:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
um Katrina had a huge storm surge too!
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479. Patrap
6:55 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Fla has a big wu population..saint. Hard to compare the Super storms to the smaller intense one.To one who goes thru either.The event usually stays with one forever.Comparing storms is like comparing dogs and opinions.Everyone has one ..and its the best. Its ALL relative to the observer.
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478. charley04survivor
11:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Not sure if my question got buried or not:

Is there a blog archive that I can find for August 13, 2004, the day Charley hit?
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477. charley04survivor
11:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Charley was a wind event, while Katrina was a water event.
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476. Bamatracker
11:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
StormW yep. can it develop?
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475. sporteguy03
11:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Charley its all good...Of course following the NHC is best Tom Terry preaches that too, the NHC likes to poke him though but hes ok with that, he made a decision that day that can be said changed how viewers saw him and his career.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
474. SAINTHURRIFAN
11:49 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
lot of talk about charley. well i will tell you this and patrap would agree. sunday before karina hit steve lyons put charley on a map compared to katrina, it looked like a nickel compared to a hubcap lol also since we are on history lessons sorry pat we in se ms and la would take 5 charlies to one katrina or camille. just seems all we here is florida stormsi guess the younger bunch has never heard of camille or fredrick and durn now i show my age lol
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473. charley04survivor
11:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Wind shear has calmed in the area? Well then this thing could have something for us.

Just out of curiosity...are there any archives of this board back to when Charley hit? It would be interesting to read the discussion as it happened.
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471. Bamatracker
11:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
yea...i left NO about 2 today and could barely make out downtown from metarie because the haze was so bad. is it usually that bad over there?
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470. Patrap
6:53 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Hello bama, we beating the gums and waves here
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469. Bamatracker
11:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
what you make of it stormW? oh and good evening!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.