Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

Share this Blog
3
+

There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 619 - 569

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

618. PalmHarbor
1:11 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
bob its the longer range GFS

Ok, I'm not going to freak out about that then:)

Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
617. Wishcasterboy
1:10 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I gotta go. See yawl later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
616. charley04survivor
1:11 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
yes the long range GFS shows it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
614. charley04survivor
1:09 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
okay, go back and look at IKE's link of GFS...it shows one off of S Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
613. nawlinsdude
1:08 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
nasty little thunderstorm over metairie and kenner right now. came out of nowhere!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
612. bobw999
9:08 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Latest GFS Link

no hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
611. Wishcasterboy
1:07 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
To the north of the wave and a little bit behind the wave, there is. She could still drag it off with her.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
610. PalmHarbor
1:07 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I'm not seeing a hurricane off of So Fla which is ok with me, ignorance is bliss they say:)

Thanks Chicklit, I was looking for a projected storm system not at the condidtions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
609. charley04survivor
1:07 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Give me a thunderstorm any day over a 'cane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
608. bobw999
9:07 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
The GFS puts a Hurricane off of S. Florida.

I don't see it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
607. Chicklit
1:05 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Watching that line of storms in the midwest makes me remember how incredibly frightening it is to be in the middle of 'mother nature' when all hell's breaking loose.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11178
606. Doove4cane
1:05 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Shesh...major downpour near New Orleans right now. It is dark as night...can't see very much:(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
605. Chicklit
1:04 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
...and less African dust.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11178
604. Wishcasterboy
1:03 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Same time where I am. This time of year it doesn't get dark until 9:30, so I just kinda unofficially refer to this as the afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
603. Chicklit
1:03 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Palm Harbor: Low shear, lots of moisture, warm waters.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11178
602. eye
1:02 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Drak, i am predicting the blob that is close to SA will either run into SA or go "poof" by this time Thursday....ITCZ convection
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
601. moonlightcowboy
1:03 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
This Link shows that there is considerably less SAL.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
600. charley04survivor
1:02 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
The GFS puts a Hurricane off of S. Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
599. Wishcasterboy
1:00 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yep. It's just that where she's at right now and how strong she is is a good indicator of what she'll do. I've seen it a thousand times. Well see though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
598. PalmHarbor
12:59 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Ok Now that I know my Daughter and family are ok at least for the time being what am I missing on the gfs that I should be concerned about? I'm not seeing anything that's scary.Can someone help me out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
597. KoritheMan
8:00 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Good evening, wishcasterboy (it's evening here, it's 6:00 for you). :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
596. KoritheMan
7:59 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Well, I don't see that much dust right now wishcasterboy... It has to die eventually, and it will. It can't stay forever, or the Atlantic will be a desert.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
595. Wishcasterboy
12:59 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Afternoon, Kor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
594. KoritheMan
7:58 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Looks like damaging winds along the derecho as well as tornadoes along the leading edge of it. Even if the tornadoes don't touch down, damaging wind is still gonna be a problem, as is heavy rainfall in eastern Iowa. Time to hunker down anyone who lives in eastern Iowa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
593. Wishcasterboy
12:57 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I don't know. The only thing this wave looks to be doing is pulling out more dust into the Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
592. KoritheMan
7:56 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
It will have more of a chance than the last ones, that's for sure. Most are too far south this season, and SAL has been a problem. All of that looks to change soon as we get into the heart of the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
591. SAINTHURRIFAN
12:49 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
well pat just one last thought for the night. at least no will get lucky and be rid of blanco and nagin before the next bad storm. we in ms count our blessings for haley barbour great who has done a wonderfull job. hey looks like bobby gindle will be your next gov that should be a major upgrade to blanco good night god bless
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
590. Chicklit
12:55 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Drak, I'd say it's 'ramping up' wouldn't you?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11178
589. KoritheMan
7:53 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
It would be interesting if a tornado actually passed by one of those cams.

Tell me about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
588. Wishcasterboy
12:54 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
The wave coming off Africa I presume.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
587. Drakoen
12:52 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29906
586. Wishcasterboy
12:51 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
It would be interesting if a tornado actually passed by one of those cams.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
584. scwindsaloft
12:50 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Patrap

That cell A7 has big big time rotation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
583. charley04survivor
12:51 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yes it is IKE. And of course I'll be out of town in Dallas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
582. Wishcasterboy
12:49 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Those are baleful skies pat!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
581. Chicklit
12:50 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Holy crap...At least people had plenty of notice about the derecho, if they'd listened!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11178
580. IKE
7:50 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: charley04survivor at 7:50 PM CDT on July 18, 2007.
Florida should hope the GFS is wrong!


The seasons fixin to bust loose.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
579. Patrap
7:49 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Quad Cities TV KWOC TV-6 webcam

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
578. PalmHarbor
12:49 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Tornado currently on the ground in Anamosa Ia, near Monticello according to my information.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
577. Drakoen
12:49 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
SAL breaking up; new wave of Africa. You guys wanted some action and you could see it with that new wave of Africa. You can thank that 1012 mb low and the ITCZ for basically giving the NEW wave a SAL free path.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29906
576. charley04survivor
12:49 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Florida should hope the GFS is wrong!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
575. Wishcasterboy
12:48 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
It looks like a derecho.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
574. Patrap
7:48 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Cedar Rapids TV webcam..KGAN CBS2

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
573. IKE
7:48 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
That's some nasty storms!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
572. PalmHarbor
12:48 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
That is to say; have there been any sightings?

according to her and kcrg tv there have been reports of tornadoes on the ground:(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
571. Wishcasterboy
12:47 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
What do the numbers around the cells stand for?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
570. Patrap
7:47 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Monticello taking the Bad cell....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 619 - 569

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
70 °F
Mostly Cloudy