Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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666. SWFL
1:42 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Storm W.
What area of Fort Myers did your folks live?

Then you know the feeling you had when you saw "those pretzels" and a lot more. It was days before they could get enough water,ice and food to many people.Electric took weeks. I worked up in Port Charlotte for 3 long,hot days with my job from FM because our work building in PC was destroyed. Thank you for understanding.
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665. charley04survivor
1:42 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Why didn't Charley have a big storm surge?
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663. FormerFloridian
1:45 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: charley04survivor at 1:33 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.
SWFL I agree with you, nobody remembers Punta Gorda which was all but destroyed.


I remember because I went up there to help cleanup when I was living in Cape Coral.
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662. IKE
8:44 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
"What iam looking at is the more agressive runs by the GFS meaning stronger areas of low pressure making it all the way across which to me could be a sign of a ramp up in the next 2-3 weeks."....

That's what I was getting at...the ramp up is rapidly approaching.
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661. stoormfury
1:39 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
ALT wave looks a little better and is movimg wnw. i expect convection to increase as it gets closer to the islands .shear is low and the SST is high/
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660. hurricane23
9:39 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 9:39 PM EDT on July 18, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:35 PM CDT on July 18, 2007.
Just a few weeks now before things ramp up...

Yup...and that frame is at 300 hours...July 31st.

What iam looking at is the more aggressive runs by the GFS meaning stronger areas of low pressure making it all the way across which to me could be a sign of a ramp up in the next 2-3 weeks.
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659. Tazmanian
6:37 PM PDT on July 18, 2007
next week is the last full week of july
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658. Patrap
8:41 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
This imagery was acquired by the NOAA Remote Sensing Division to support NOAA national security and emergency response requirements. In addition, it will be used for ongoing research efforts for testing and developing standards for airborne digital imagery.

NOTE: The date of the photography can be derived from the first 3 characters of the image name. Image names beginning with 243 were acquired Aug 30, 2005, those beginning with 244 were acquired Aug 31, and so on.


Link
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656. charley04survivor
1:40 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I don't think they did IKE, not from what I can tell.
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655. charley04survivor
1:39 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Great, I fly into Miami on July 31st then go to Dallas! I hope nothing comes while I'm gone.
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654. IKE
8:39 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Did they have blogs on here in 2004?
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653. charley04survivor
1:38 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yes I lost everything in Punta Gorda, as many others did too.
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652. IKE
8:38 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:35 PM CDT on July 18, 2007.
Just a few weeks now before things ramp up...


Yup...and that frame is at 300 hours...July 31st.
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651. charley04survivor
1:38 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I wish I could find the archives to that IKE...apparently 2004 was deleted?
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650. IKE
8:35 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: charley04survivor at 8:33 PM CDT on July 18, 2007.
SWFL I agree with you, nobody remembers Punta Gorda which was all but destroyed.


I remember being on WU when Charley was near Punta Gorda and trying to get updates on their current conditions and so many people were logged on to WU, it would take a while to get the readings. They got hit hard.
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649. charley04survivor
1:36 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I guess I can't read the GFS, because I really thought that was a hurricane it showed. How can you tell?
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648. hurricane23
9:35 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Just a few weeks now before things ramp up...

waves
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647. charley04survivor
1:31 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
SWFL I agree with you, nobody remembers Punta Gorda which was all but destroyed.
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646. moonlightcowboy
1:32 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:17 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.
did some one say hurricane



HyperText Transfer Protocol

...at least we know Taz "hears" good! lol

...TAZ, you may be right about the blob off SA...we'll know more tomorrow for sure!!! But you know, after you started posting that today, other bloggers here started paying attention. You keep calling 'em like you see 'em, pal!
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645. hurricane23
9:27 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
I was just looking at the lastest GFS run and the one thing that stands out to me is how its developing some areas of weak low pressures and actually takeing them all the way across towards florida indicating the ramp up maybe around the corner.

Long range GFS loop



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643. charley04survivor
1:29 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
That looked like a hurricane to me...or close to it.
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640. SWFL
1:30 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Those of us that survived Charley are mighty thankful it was a very small eye and small storm that went from a cat 2 to a cat 4 in a matter of hours giving no one the option except to batten down the hatches.Thankful for our alert local weather forcasters we were warned of the intensity and turn inland. Yet no one has ever mentioned the years it has taken Punta Gorda or Port Charlotte to recover....or the devastation of the small towns that it destroyed when it moved inland and up the state.As for Katrina, NO was not the only city affected by that---the whole Gulf Coast into FL was devastated as well.
Thanks for Storm W,Patrap,Drakoen for all the work you put into the site..I apologize for not mentioning the rest of the group that gives us more than advice.Thank you.
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638. IKE
8:27 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
I never said it was a hurricane at the end of the loop...that was someone else...but it was still a system and that far out is a first.
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634. IKE
8:25 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Latest one 18 UTC..July 18,2007
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633. PalmHarbor
1:24 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Link

I think I have this link thing figured out now
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632. IKE
8:23 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
It's 384 hours...

It may not mean anything, but that's the first time I've seen that with the GFS this season and that goes into August 2nd and 3rd.
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630. NorthxCakalaky
1:24 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Statement as of 8:55 PM EDT on July 18, 2007


Airport weather warning for lightning in effect through 10 PM EDT
for the Charleston naval weapons station.

A cluster of storms will continue to produce intense cloud to ground
lightning over the naval weapons station interest area through 10
PM.

What will they come out next?
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629. PalmHarbor
1:22 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Thanks for the information:)

So exactly how far out is that model, I haven't quite figured out the math on those...
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628. IKE
8:22 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Click the 18 UTC GFS....

Link
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626. Chicklit
1:12 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Palmharbor: I've seen system after system destroyed by shear, dry air, African dust, if not diverted by fronts. Unfortunately, it looks like all of those things are being taken out of the mix.
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625. charley04survivor
1:18 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I agree with IKE, but we'll have to watch this and see if the model continues to show the same thing...and if other models begin to agree.
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624. IKE
8:16 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
It's the first time this season it's had a system make it all the way across the Atlantic...a telling sign of what could be ahead...soon.
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623. Tazmanian
6:14 PM PDT on July 18, 2007
did some one say hurricane
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622. charley04survivor
1:14 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
How long has the GFS shown this? Do any other models agree?
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621. FLARV
1:12 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
And we all know just how accurate the long range models are...
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620. charley04survivor
1:13 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yes it is long range, nothing to get hyped for, just something to watch.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.