Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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719. HurricaneJoe
2:42 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
seriously check it out, i wanna start populating my blog
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718. stormybil
2:43 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
hmmm that wave over africa is really big now
717. charley04survivor
2:41 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I miss Max Mayfield.
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716. weatherguy03
10:40 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Sporteguy, I am pretty sure Dr. Lyons has it covered:)
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715. BoyntonBeach
2:39 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Dr. Lyons is MM's #1 replacement & best man to lead us through hurricane season..that's CH: 58 on WPB Comcast..
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714. HurricaneJoe
2:39 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
check out my blog guys, got a great website on it
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712. sporteguy03
2:37 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Night JP,
tomorrow your job to ask TT a question on Eye on the Tropics lol
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711. moonlightcowboy
2:37 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
L8R, Jp...have a good sleep!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
709. sporteguy03
2:31 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Weatherguy03,
Thats cool,

Posted By: clwstmchasr at 2:14 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.
Watched Steve Lyons on TWC about 20min ago. He did not even show a satellite of the Atlantic. He said that there was "absolutely nothing" going on in the Atlantic.

Ok at least Tom Terry says something on Eye on the Tropics and looks at a satelitte map :)
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708. weatherguy03
10:30 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
I would listen to Dr. Lyons:)
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706. sporteguy03
2:24 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Jp,
See he answers my email you should write him more, he at least acknowledges his viewers, so we'll keep an eye on it, maybe he will say something at 11pm also.

As I said a great met in Orlando.
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704. moonlightcowboy
2:24 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
...Tom Terry's on the record now...lol. We'll see, that may just happen! But, so kewl, you did that 03!!! wtg
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
703. hurricane23
10:21 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Many areas of convection across the tropical atlantic but no organization is imminent.

www.Adrian's Weather.com
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702. sporteguy03
2:23 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
He thought it was too far South too.
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700. sporteguy03
2:22 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
He said it will probably run into Venzelua, but great he mentioned my email right JP , lol
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698. sporteguy03
2:19 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Hey JP,
Tom Terry mentioned me on WDRQ Eye on the Tropics
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694. charley04survivor
2:14 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
What makes some storms form to be larger and some to be smaller?
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692. floridafisherman
2:04 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
hi! i live in lehigh acres, east of ft myers and remember charlie well. the damage it caused not just near the coast, but inland in places like arcadia and orlando got hit hard too.

as for hurricanes, wilma was actually alot worse in my area. i was closer to charlies eye, but charlie was a small storm. wilma has a huge eye and much broader windfield. wilma was actually snapping palm trees in my area. when u see the palm trees snapping, you know its bad out there.
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691. hurricane23
10:09 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Yea 2004 was really tuff for florida period...Hopefully we wont see a year like that for a long time.For us in florida we should atleast expect a couple of threats before its all said and done this season.
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690. moonlightcowboy
2:10 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
...somehow, the next post seems like it should belong to Patrap!

I think we know several that can relate Charley.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
689. charley04survivor
2:06 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I am ready to get out. We moved to Riverview, FL just a few miles east of Tampa. Just couldn't go back to Punta Gorda.
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688. FormerFloridian
2:03 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: SWFL at 2:02 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.
Former Floridian. I am sure all the hot hard work you put into helping to clean up was much appreciated. Where did you move to?


Ohio. Couldn't afford to keep paying the rising homeowners insurance costs in Florida. My mortgage went up nearly $800/mo. over a two year period as a result. Sold my house and got out for before the housing bust.
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687. scwindsaloft
2:04 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
23

It is probably me, but I see no image on your post. Do I need some kind of software upgrade?
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686. charley04survivor
2:05 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
hurricane23...I have that video. Someone gave it to me as a gift. Its hard to watch your town being torn apart.
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685. hurricane23
10:03 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Here is just a small clip caught by some friends in the core of hurricane charley.

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684. FormerFloridian
2:02 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Good luck to all in the Midwest tonight. Looks like a rough night.

Later.
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683. charley04survivor
2:02 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
If there was a storm surge with Charley, we would've died no doubt as our house looked over the harbor.
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682. SWFL
1:48 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Former Floridian. I am sure all the hot hard work you put into helping to clean up was much appreciated. Where did you move to?
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681. moonlightcowboy
1:59 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: charley04survivor at 1:55 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.
Thanks for the info. I didn't realize that would affect the surge of a storm.


Charley, several things go into play for surge.

To name a few: size of storm, overall windfield, strength of storm, wind speeds, storm speed, storm direction, storm landfall angle, tides, sea levels, ocean floor - shallow/deep waters...just these off the top of my head...and I'm sure there's more.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
680. Caymanite
1:56 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Looks like the wave at 10N 50W has become more symetrical and cloud tops have cooled considerably in the past 2 hrs. Will be real interesting to see if it can get to 11 or 12N before 60W. If it does I believe that we wil truly have something to watch. Then again it might be gone by tomorrow, will have to wait & see.
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679. FormerFloridian
1:58 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: charley04survivor at 1:55 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.
Thanks for the info. I didn't realize that would affect the surge of a storm.


I was expecting 18 ft storm surge and my house was only 10 ft above sea level, so you can imagine my worry at the time. Thankfully, just minor street flooding but a lot of wind damage.
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678. moonlightcowboy
1:57 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Later, StormW...have a good sleep.

Really enjoyed your posts today!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
677. charley04survivor
1:57 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I was too afraid to take any pictures during Charley. We tried to look for shelter after our house blew away but the back half came up so fast we didn't get a chance.
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676. hurricane23
9:56 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
I have a couple of friends that were in the eye of hurricane charley during its landfall in punta gorda...Incredible footage.

Here a pic i took with some software as the eye was coming ashore.

eye
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675. charley04survivor
1:53 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Thanks for the info. I didn't realize that would affect the surge of a storm.
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672. charley04survivor
1:51 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yes I remember being lost in Punta Gorda...couldnt even tell what street I was on.
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670. FormerFloridian
1:49 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: charley04survivor at 1:48 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.
Why didn't Charley have a big storm surge?


combination of its forward speed increased and it's eye had shrunk considerably giving it a smaller core of strong wind.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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