Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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769. moonlightcowboy
5:07 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Died=shear.
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768. Wishcasterboy
5:02 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
The broad low has sucked in a lot of that dry air. But, our wave is far away from the low's effects.
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767. Wishcasterboy
4:57 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Parts of the SAL is diminishing, but it's still holding up well enough to be a major factor. Would you mind filling me in on 96L. I wasn't monitoring the tropics back then. Perhaps, telling me how it died?
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766. moonlightcowboy
4:55 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yes, Wish, it's the pink stuff. But, a few weeks ago when 96L was trying to form, practically the entire CATL was pink.

And, I think that broad low has helped pulled a lot of the dust/dry air into the moisture of the Itcz, really bringing the SAL levels down further.
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765. Wishcasterboy
4:51 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
What color is the SAL on that link?
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764. moonlightcowboy
4:48 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
This Link may better show the diminishing SAL.

I just wish we had some buoys in that area to see what the pressure is doing.
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763. Wishcasterboy
4:26 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Just to make sure there's no miscommunication. Did you mean the the SAL near the wave was breaking down, or the whole damn thing. The satellite I use tells me only the eastern part of the SAL is breaking down significantly.
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762. moonlightcowboy
4:28 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
SAL is diminishing. Not the blob, at least at this point.

Another thing about SAL, is that it is generally in the sfc area. There's plenty of wv at the mid and upper levels.

Plus, the blob is still embedded in the Itcz and it's also trending nw to about 60w,14n, too. Likely, still where the convection is coming from maybe.
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760. moonlightcowboy
4:25 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Not me, much prefer the EUMETSAT, it's a "dust" product.
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759. Wishcasterboy
4:25 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I hate that satellite. Here's the one I prefer; Link
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758. Wishcasterboy
4:22 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I don't make sense?
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757. moonlightcowboy
4:21 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yeah, I think that's what we're all waiting to see.

Here's a Link to show a diminishing SAL.
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756. Wishcasterboy
4:13 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Well, I do notice a slight northward trend. I do not see any wearing down of the SAL above and behind it for quite some distance. Convection is still disorganized, but shear is less than I thought,so screwed up there. I only glanced the shear maps. Out of that, I would expect this thing to have much less convection tomorrow.
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755. moonlightcowboy
4:07 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Makes sense, Wish; should have diminished during the day if it were tropical. So, you may be right; but, it appears to be holding its convection, especially at the mid and upper levels where there's plenty of wv. Also, SAL is diminishing and running more behind that area.

I'm not sure anyone is giving it much of a chance; but, I suppose it is possible if it continues to hold convection and starts building an llc, which it can do over those waters.
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754. Wishcasterboy
4:00 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
What really bothers me about 60W wave is that it developed out of basically nothing. That, to me, is the classic signature of a flair up.
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753. Wishcasterboy
3:58 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
There's a lot of Sahara dust following the wave.
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752. moonlightcowboy
3:53 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Shear tendency says decreasing to n and to the w.
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751. Wishcasterboy
3:53 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Cowboy,

how long do you think that pocket of low shear ahead of it is going to last?
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750. Wishcasterboy
3:50 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
It doesn't really have a circulation, and if it does go north, it will probably get caught in shear strong enough to disrupt it.
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749. Wishcasterboy
3:48 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Where's Pottery. He comes and then disappears for long periods of time.
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748. moonlightcowboy
3:48 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Wishcaster, have a "reason" for its demise?
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747. Wishcasterboy
3:44 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
It's either going to get killed, if there's anything to get killed, or ram itself into our sister continent.
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746. Wishcasterboy
3:39 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Well, the more people make a big deal of it, the more reason I will have to talk about it. Mainly spreading my "Not going to happen" hypothesis.
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745. moonlightcowboy
3:38 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Part of the Itcz in the eatl is far north as about 17n...furtherest north so far I think. But, it swoops down crazy again as low as 8n further west. Must be trying to pitch out that low around 36w...lol.
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744. newt3d
3:41 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Yikes, some nasty looking hook echos in Nebraska tonight!
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743. Hellsniper223
3:36 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Wishcasterboy, that makes you, Ironically... A... HATE CASTER! dun dun dun...

Err.. Or completely normal. I don't think anything'll come of it either.
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742. Wishcasterboy
3:30 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
I didn't know there were two Pottery's. Well imagine that!

I have a question that has been bothering me for awhile. I've been badmouthing that wave 60w all day. So, does that make me a moderate?
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741. moonlightcowboy
3:28 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 3:22 AM GMT on July 19, 2007.
It was a Dark, Stormy night...


...a lil "weather Mellancamp"...??? lol, Sailor!
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740. moonlightcowboy
3:27 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Pottery, looks like a blob is coming your way again!!!
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739. Hellsniper223
3:25 AM GMT on July 19, 2007


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738. Hellsniper223
3:23 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
So, whats going on in the tropics tonight?

It seems as though there are a few spots with potential...
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737. CaicosRetiredSailor
11:20 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
It was a Dark and Stormy night...
The Blob that ate Chicago

The Blob that ate Chicago
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736. DDR
3:17 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
hey pottery, did you get alot of rain this morning?
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734. Hellsniper223
3:16 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
JoshNHurricanes, My name is Josh aswell. Well met.
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733. JUSTCOASTING
3:08 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
HELLO ROM PUNTA GORDA TONIGHT EVERYONE .Anyone here tell em how things are going in Indiana tonight i have my folks up there in a camper ?
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732. pottery2
11:02 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Good evening. The local mets here at 11 n 61 w are not too exited by the wave around 45 w. They predict showers, chance of thunderstorms, all week long, and into next week. Pressure here is 1014 . Only high cloud around.
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731. moonlightcowboy
3:11 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
lmao, Jp...go to sleep!
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727. Stormchaser2007
3:02 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Hey guys, im josh and 15 years old. i have a tropical weather website made for those of you interested in tropical weather and for those of you that want the latest on the weather. there is a tropical outlook page and many more pages on the website there is also a survey page with questions based on this hurricane season that you can answer its like a poll. Also you can comment my tropical weather outlook blog at the very bottom is the comment box. the site is freewebs.com/japweather

Also if you want your own blog page on my website let me know.



Hello and welcome to Wundergound !! : )
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723. brazocane
2:49 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
Quiet as a church mouse out there.
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722. weatherguy03
10:53 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Nothing to dance about right now..LOL Dr. Lyons is bored.
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721. sporteguy03
2:49 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
True 03, but do a dance or something when you have a tropical update instead of saying nothing back to you....lol
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720. stormybil
2:47 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
wave no 2 looks to be getting a better round shape at this hour . be kewl to see what happens after the morn. hours or what the nhc will say at 11 pm update stay tuned
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719. HurricaneJoe
2:42 AM GMT on July 19, 2007
seriously check it out, i wanna start populating my blog
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.