Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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119. Drakoen
5:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
the shear is really starting to drop as that upper level trough moves out of the area.
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118. MrNiceville
5:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Sure, Thundercloud, NO PROBLEM!!!

sounds like you're constructing a spam list...

Sorry - nope - but I do live in Niceville,FL (could you figure that out from my handle?)
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117. moonlightcowboy
5:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
TC...this is beginning to sound like SPAM. Let's just stick to the weather.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
115. Drakoen
5:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
the ITCZ has moved north which is part of the reason why the SAL around the African coast up to 17 north is clear. Another factor as the low pressure area associated with a tropical wave embedded into the ITCZ. Some of the convection that you are seeing is some of the ITCZ.
I will say though that the SAL has weakened somewhat form yesterday.
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113. lickitysplit
5:27 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Sorry Thundercloud, not going to give all that information. I live in Taos, NM if that helps.
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112. weathersp
1:31 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Yeah Thundercloud.. I am not putting in my info in there... To vulnerable to id thefts... If you want to know put one of those world visitor maps.
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111. moonlightcowboy
5:32 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
SAL, Drakoen, SAL...and congressional hearings!!! In other words, not too danged much! lol
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
110. Drakoen
5:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
so what are we all talking about?
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109. 69Viking
5:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thundercloud - Too much personal information, I live in Fort Walton Beach, FL. There, my screen name and location unless you're trying to steal identities? Others be careful of giving personal information to someone you don't personally know. I work in the computer field and see people get suckered all the time, be careful. That's my non weather input for the day.
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108. moonlightcowboy
5:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds32.png

...this is the area I think needs some watching. The low at about 33w,13n is pulling SAL into the Itcz and clearing the way for the next waves/lows to develop.

As SAL decreases, the current low could even develop. It's moving wsw towards the Itcz and could emerge closer to the Antilles. imvho
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
107. Patrap
12:23 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Atlantic Basin SSt's Link
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104. nash28
5:17 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I really tried to give the CMC a chance, but ever since Barry, it has been off the rocker.

I am not sure what happened to that model this season. It used to be quite a bit better in terms of storm formation in the last few years. Any tweaks that have been made to it certainly haven't improved it.
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103. Buhdog
5:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I am with you Leftovers....it has the best circulation out there..but it sure looks funny. It has been asked before....Is is a mid level-upper level feature? If it gets some moisture around it it may go IMO.
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102. eaglesrock
1:16 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Look at the 12z CMC. Even more shocking.
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101. nash28
5:14 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
For it to even register, it needs to have a closed LLC, persistent convection around the center, and lack of high shear.

I just don't think we are quite there yet. Almost, but not quite.
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100. gthsii
5:14 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thundercloud-almost fell for the survey, but why does this survey require so much personal info? I thought all you wanted was where we live, why does it need my date of birth, first and last name, email addy? WTF?
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99. eaglesrock
1:14 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: texascanecaster1 at 1:02 PM EDT on July 18, 2007.

i beileve that low off the coast of afrcia is ethier become a cutoff low or could potentiall be trying to turn into a neutercane.


A neutercane?
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98. Tazmanian
5:12 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
texascanecaster1 i sent you a e mail about the wave i was talking about
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96. IKE
12:09 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: leftovers at 12:07 PM CDT on July 18, 2007.
Having a bad day nash. What do you think about the naked swirl coming our way.


He must be. One of the main points on Dr. Masters blog deals with the government.

Now ...back to the tropics.
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95. nash28
5:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Not having a bad day. Just trying to keep this blog from turning into the Bush sucks blog. I am so sick of discussing or hearing about it.

As far as the naked swirl?? Not even on my radar.
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92. nash28
5:03 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Ok, you wanna talk about the war, find another blog. You wanna bash Bush, find another blog.

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90. Tazmanian
5:00 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
texascanecaster1 her is the 2nd wave i was talking about it is stronger then the 1st one and i want to see from QuikSCAT if there is a Sfc low with that

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88. nash28
4:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
The CMC has had some real issues save for one storm this season. I wouldn't put much stock either in the formation of the storm, nor the track. That would have to be a pretty heavy trough to cause such an erosion in the ridge, and I don't see that happening.
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87. Chicklit
4:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
The western GOM has been active for days now...Must be a lot of rain over on that coast! I'm with you Amazin...I can't believe that none of those storms southeast of the US is predicted to develop within 48 hours!
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86. benirica
4:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
CJ5 those "idiots who are trying to kill us" were never in Iraq...
just thought id point that out, getting them out of Afghanistan was "understandable", not approved but understandable.
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84. amazinwxman
4:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I have a question not trying to start anything at all just want clarification ok. Dr. M says no areas of interest except maybe off the carolina coast when a front stalls out but he doesn't at all mention the tropical wave at 60W 13N but on another blog the wave is mentioned so is it Dr. M may have overlooked the wave or he doesn't think it will do anything or will it do something inspit of not being mentioned? And lastly is the wave at 60W and 13N looking good or poor right now and does it have a chance to develope at all?
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83. benirica
4:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
latest report from the local MET and hurricane expert here in PR.....
no waves with tropical cyclone potential but the train has begun
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82. initforwaves
4:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
has that big low near 32W transitioned into a cold-core storm? looks more like a mid-winter north atlantic storm than a tropical wave
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79. hosweather
4:41 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
The infamous CMC develops the wave over the Antilles into a severe storm that curves up to New England. Any chance of this actually happening?
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78. Tazmanian
4:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
aggie17 am not sure this some in two watch
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76. Patrap
11:46 AM CDT on July 18, 2007
Will Bill Proenza go on Larry King?

Or will he Play HARDBALL with Chris Matthews..?

Stay tuned
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72. Tazmanian
4:39 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
dos any one no if there has been a QuikSCAT on the 2nd wave it looks stronger and i want to see if it has a spin and if its down to the sfc or not
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71. weathermanwannabe
11:32 AM CDT on July 18, 2007
Read up on some notes last night and about 100 waves come out of Africa each CV season...So, with the "train" starting, and the low percentages which actually develop into a TD, it is kind of a crap shoot (shear/dry air/moisture)as to which will actually develop...The real season has yet to start until the first TD forms from one of these. Once that happens (going into August)then the "floodgate" may open as these early ones are starting to lay down the tracks so so speak...In keeping with the current storm prediction numbers (14-16), and two on the books, I'd expect to see about a 10% chance of significant development on the good looking waves over the next 60 days....
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70. benirica
4:35 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
second wave the one at 48W ?
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69. hurricaneman23
4:36 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
is there anything out there that has a chance for development in the future?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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